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AAM should attract regulator attention

(29 replies) 27-Aug-2008 11:17 am
In my opinion the Financial Regulator should be asking some serious questions of the type of information being disseminated on AAM. While any punter can give their two cents' worth on an interwebbie forum, a regulated practitioner (i.e. Brendan) needs to be careful to issue advice within regulations.

In this thread the advice borders on negligent in my view:

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=90565

Quote:
Brendan
Administrator Posts: 6,466

Re: Brendan - Property Investment advice 2004

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The rates are out of date, but the principle is the same.

Over the longer term, equities should outperform property. The only advantage of investing in property is that you can get tax relief on the borrowing.

If you are going to invest in property, you should borrow the maximum allowed.

You can still borrow 100% of the price of an investment property if you have other properties on which to secure the loan.

Brendan


This is outrageous. The most important and essential piece of advice that must be put up front needs to be the point that as you increase the gearing, the risk scales upward, to the point at 100% debt, the risk is infinite in relative terms (i.e. as a % of the capital you have stumped up) and only capped in absolute terms by the size of the borrowing. Investors should tailor the amount of gearing they use (i.e. amount of risk) according to their specific investment needs. Only then, think about tax efficiency.

Still, Brendan only says the the only point is the tax play and you should borrow 100%.

That guy is an abomination to finance. He knows nothing of the personal or financial circumstances of the people he is openly advising. He knows nothing of their financial knowledge or capacity or ability to understand what he is advising. Yet he tells a poster directly that they should borrow 100% of the asset price (infinitely gear). Read more...

Irish Times - Letters: Bulls, bears and property prices

(37 replies) 26-Aug-2008 08:58 am
Quote:

Madam, - I think there are many more applications for "morganomics" (self-fulfilling economic modelling) apart from Morgan Kelly's suggestion in your edition of August 15th that no one buy a house for three years and the price will drop by over 50 per cent. You do not need to be a professor of economics to know that if buyers were to behave along morganomic principles then property would have absolutely no value at all. In this scenario buyers should merely take over houses for nothing and Morgan's your uncle.

On Morning Irelandlast week Christoper McKevitt was gloating about the fall in rents reported by daft.ie and the holocaust being visited on landlords. Perhaps some proper economic analysis might be applied to the daft.ie analysis so that ordinary punters might know exactly how much a fall of 1 to 6 per cent in rent represents.

Are we looking at a few euro a week here? The price of a couple of pints in the student bar? Armageddon?

What would happen to registration fees if all students avoided UCD for three years? What would happen to the RTÉ advertising rate card prices if all advertisers avoided the national broadcaster for the next three years? In morganonics we have the answer.

For their own sake we need to cut off the oxygen to these prophets of doom before they become the self-fulfilling cause of massive job losses at UCD and RTE. Thankfully the coping classes (as Senator Eoghan Harris correctly calls us) outside RTÉ and UCD are far more pragmatic and resilient.

- Yours, etc,

GERRY MURPHY, Blackrock, Co Dublin.


Quote:

Madam, - How could The Irish Times publish the article by Mark Fitzgerald in your edition of August 21st? It was completely incoherent and contained many non-sequiturs as well as poor grammar, punctuation and style.

One of the most egregious of the many examples of poor writing occurs after Mr Fitzgerald rambles about state infrastructure and Northern Irish politics. He then says we must regain our competitive advantage and subsequently produces the completely baffling sentence: "Already this is beginning to happen, painful and all as it is for many people in selling their house."

On first reading I was convinced that a paragraph was inadvertently omitted or two separate articles were somehow mixed together. How selling one's house helps a nation regain its competitive advantage is anyone's guess.

When he does finally get around to discussing the Irish economy and housing market, he writes: "Only time will tell with the benefit of hindsight, which segment of people were financially the wiser". Surely "segment of people" is a crime against the English language and I have never heard the two phrases "only time will tell" and "with the benefit of hindsight" used together.

His last paragraph is one of the worst I have ever read in a broadsheet newspaper. The grammar is poor and the argument incomprehensible.

Mr Fitzgerald uses the conditional form "would be" without providing a condition. He writes incoherently about "our party political system" and sticks in the completely misplaced adverb "mutually". In the last sentence he rambles about the diplomacy of Irish politicians in Europe for no apparent reason at all.

I thought that Denis O'Brien's column last week on the same subject was poorly written, but at least it was comprehensible. It is telling that in the interests of balance The Irish Timeshas had to lower its standards in order to find contributors who are bullish about the Irish economy and property market.

- Yours, etc,

BARRY THORNTON, Zurich, Switzerland.


Both from http://www.irishtimes.com/letters/ Read more...

It's the empties, stupid - Dublin edition

(11 replies) 27-Aug-2008 09:40 am
You might have noticed that the bulls have a new talking point - that the overhang of new properties is only in Leitrim, or Roscommon, or Longford or ... somewhere else anyway. Dublin is safe, yes siree. No overhang here.

This might be true if you simply look at whether builders have units they've failed to shift. It's certainly not true if you look at the new properties which have been sitting unoccupied for the last few years as owners gambled on capital appreciation and couldn't be bothered with actual tenants.

Here are a few I've spotted lately:

Mount St. Annes - 2 bed apt vacant since 2004? Sold for €475k then, now asking €499k.

Edward Square, Bloomfield Road, Donnybrook - 3 bed townhouse, vacant for two years. Asking €1.65m. Sold for between €1.4 and €1.8 then.

Leeson Place, Adelaide Road - 2 bed mews house unoccupied for seven(!) years. According to the brochure, it's "in show-house condition, c. the year 2000". Asking €850k. Can't find the original price.

Mount St. Annes - 2 bed apt vacant since last year? Asking €705k. Sold for €720k then.

Etc., etc.

How many more of these ghosts are there out there? And what effect will they have on prices? Read more...

Final week of August...Is the real nightmare about to begin?

(18 replies) 25-Aug-2008 09:19 pm
Austin whatever was on today saying the Government had one last chance to salvage the economy before it goes proper tits up, together with some great spinning that Consumer sentiment was up (but only to its second worst point ever).

AIB also got in on the act today reducing rates.

This week and next the VI's are going to be very dizzy spinning one last yarn, as with the nights closing in it looks like the lights are going out on the Irish economic 'miracle' come ponzi scheme and it looks like they will not be relit for quite some time.

Will the VI's save the day in the next week or two, or have the great masses finally copped on that you cannot build an economy on a property bubble? Read more...

Biffo's address to the nation: inspiring, comic or tragic?

(46 replies) 26-Aug-2008 12:53 am
I look forward with great interest to Biffo's seminal "address to the nation" this September.

What he and his government can do in this situation is beyond me.

Nevertheless, he'll be expected to take the stand and put the country at ease.

I feel however that his speech will consist largely of comical hypicrosy, empty promises and cliche after cliche -- typical of his and FF's shallow thinking of recent times.

He as finance minister played a large hand in the mess that is now being splattered all across the nation. A humiliating and embarassing speech would be a fitting end to a failed leader from a corrupt and failed political party. He's been in power both as Taoiseach and Finance Minister for several years now and has done nothing to improve Ireland's economic situation -- only make it worse.

To Cowen: Step aside and let someone with ideas begin the process of fumigating the country and let your September speech be you announcing your resignation. Read more...

We give in!

(16 replies) 26-Aug-2008 08:47 pm
http://www.fraserhouses.com/

'An offer you can't refuse.' Read more...

The Fianna Fail Sponsored Building Site Ransom Racket

(8 replies) 27-Aug-2008 02:02 pm
In the fullness of time we will regard the last decade as a time that provided, effectively, what were, massive subsidies to the owners of building land, by allowing them every advantage, and privilege our State could grant them, to indenture our people from 1997 onwards, to allow them extort, the maximum last drop of wealth from our people, by indenturing them for life to massive debt.

Under this system young people and not so young were held to ransom, despite not having any money, but were indentured by banks, for the wealth they could produce for up to forty years less any minimum sum required to keep body and soul together.

Many who could find a mate could not raise the necessary ransom, and yet more who could not raise a sufficient ransom , could not find a mate. Many who choose lower paid occupations, useful to society did so to their detriment to raise or pay a ransom.

For the Children of some small wealthy families it did not matter so much as their parents were in a position to assist with the ransoms.

Slavery has not gone away you know it has just changed its form.


Under our planning system it is the State that confers value on land by:

1) Zoning the land in the public interest from agricultural land to Building land.

2) Increasing the site coverage index and plot ratio (permitted density) on the land.

3) Creating scarcity of building land by prohibiting development on the vast bulk of land. perhaps the most valuable subsidy of all.

Under our Laws and policies it is the Landowner who takes all the benefit of this increased value, in some instances allowing them to hoard the zoned land, since it is untaxed, despite its immense value, and engineer a situation where the value of the individual build plot, or building footprint is several multiples of the cost of constructing the building.

Under this system our people must ensure that both members of a family must work, and that they make all kinds of sacrifices during their lives to pay the Developers ransom, which the banks are quite happy to provide finance for, secure in the knowledge that the system will not change, and that the security for the ransom is secure.

The older cohort of property owners are delighted with the system, while the new cohort of mortgagees and renters, must make all kind of sacrifices from their future labours such as:

1) giving up the luxury their parents enjoyed of inflating their debts away, in order to protect the savings of those who had bought earlier.

2) Forsaking the opportunity to have children

2) paying so much in servicing their ransom debt that they will not be able to afford to save for their own pensions.

3) making do with shoe boxed sized apartments because so much of their ransom debt was paid to reward the landowners, such that home sizes were shrunk to allow more of the ransom to be taken by the Landowners and builders.

To add insult to injury the government had devised a special tax on consumption, called stamp duty, which was supposed to keep prices down, and was to be paid on top of the ransom (ransom tax to reduce the size of the ransom) even though ransoms had risen to 12 times the average wage, from a historical low a ratio of ransom to earnings of 3 :1.

The notion of taxing the practice of ransoming in the first place was not deemed appropriate for the economy, even though a billion euros had been spent investigating the planning system generally, and despite another few bob spent on Bacon Reports. Bacon apparently was a wise old sage who knew everything about what was good for the economy and a lot less about what was good for society and our people, just like our government.

It is very clear as to the benefits the landowners get, a massive increase in wealth while the consumers get a massive increase in debt.

The Government still did not see fit to impose any tax on those who were selling their properties for huge profits, bought with low ransom multiples.

Businesses who wish to set up in the state must factor into their costs a large sum to cover the ransom repayments, as cost they do not have ho bear in other countries or at east not to the same extent.

Now it seemed it was beyond the power of the people of the old Kingdom of of Ireland, (an ancient land that glorified and revered fallen heroes, who had thought to try and improve the lot of its people, though it had been ruled very badly in the past) to influence the FF rulers to make laws that would eliminate the Land Ransom system, even though FF told the people they were there to help them at every election.

However the hero was the little boy who had the courage to cry out, and allowed the people the courage to use a very simple solution, to leave the Ransoming Barons to be prey to their money lenders, and force them into exile.

We did not need the Ransom Barron's after all, as it was the Builders, Architects and Masons who actually do the work, and they would be happy to carry on building better homes now that the a ransom did not have to be paid for the land. Read more...

Jax maker won't sell for 'less than its worth'

(10 replies) 27-Aug-2008 04:51 am
Quote:

Qualceram Shires has ended discussions with potential buyers of the business following the downturn in construction and falling asset values in the sector.

The company, which manufactures ceramic products for the building industry, has seen interest from potential buyers wane in the face of the construction downturn.

The original offer emerged in March when Qualceram said that it had received an unsolicited preliminary expression of interest from a third party to acquire the company, which may or may not lead to a formal offer being made to acquire all of the outstanding stock.

In a statement issued to the Stock Exchange in Dublin yesterday, the company said that since the March announcement, Qualceram, in conjunction with its advisers Davy Corporate Finance, held detailed discussions with a number of potentially interested parties regarding an offer for the entire share capital of the company.
>>>

Qualceram Shires ends talks on takeover
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/qualceram-shires-ends-talks-on-takeover-1463804.html
Read more...

Developers feel heat of slowdown

(40 replies) 24-Aug-2008 08:22 am
Quote:

At least two of the country's largest developers are understood to be in "grave financial trouble," severely cash- strapped, and in crisis talks with their banks over their position.
Both major developing firms, which are well-known, are now in the position of looking to sell portions of their assets at knock-down prices to raise some cash or transfer major stakes in their projects to the banks in order to meet their loan demands.
However, the Sunday Independent has learned that a directive, believed to be coming from the Central Bank. has advised that these major developers are to be protected and given every chance to survive, senior bank sources said this weekend.
The reality is that the leading banks like AIB, Bank Of Ireland, Ulster Bank, Anglo Irish Bank, National Irish Bank and others couldn't afford to close these big boys down
Also, many of the big guns in building have engaged in multi-bank lending as well so the directive to protect them is essentially to prevent the "house of cards" from coming down.
<snip>
The CIF said it was doing this because of the unprecedented nature of the collapse in activity in the market and warned that many more jobs would be lost to ensure that companies remain in existence.
Mr Parlon said plainly: "People are nervous and rumours are everywhere. The banks are certainly jittery and that of course is making life difficult.
"Many of our members, including some of our bigger ones are struggling and are stretched at the minute.
"By doing this show, we are hoping that we can prevent any more companies going under."
>>>>

Developers feel heat of slowdown
By Daniel McConnell, Sunday August 24 2008
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/developers-feel-heat-of-slowdown-1462200.html


Unprecedented? Unprecedented? says who? this bust is an absolutely predictable outcome of a massive credit bubble, there are books and economic studies all over the place that were ignored by these chancers.

The fact is we choose to ignore all the warning signs for the past decade, even when they were flashing bright red back in 2001 and we even convinced ourselves that debt was wealth. Any economist who did not see this coming should have be stripped of their degree and be made sit on a corner with dunces cap on.

Read more...

Economist Peter Bacon on the property market

(35 replies) 25-Aug-2008 11:40 am
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0824/thisweek_av.html?2413308,null,209

http://dynamic.rte.ie/av/209-2413308-320-180.smil [realplayer required] Read more...


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