So let’s say for the sakes of argument that our rental prices are broadly in line with European comparators, suggesting we are at neutral pricing levels. In which case, based on a 7% gross yield over 11 months rental at these (arguably) neutral prices…
These Herbert Park Apartments with clearing rents c. €1200 …
…should all cost c. €185,000. While there isn’t a 1-bed for sale there at the moment (there are about a dozen, maybe more, for rent) the last one I saw for sale was probably close on twice that amount.
Gasworks, rent asking €950…
…suggesting a €150,000-ish sale price, but are in fact asking for sale €380,000 …
(Although admittedly these may not be identical properties since size and layout varies a lot in the Gasworks, but I think the general point still stands).
Wintergarten, clearing rents look around the €800 tops, suggesting a sale price of c. €130,000…
…and here’s one for sale at €270,000:
Fitzwilliam Court, Ranelagh, clearing rents look c.€900:
…suggesting sale price below €140,000. And yet here’s one for sale at €220,000…
…again, about 50% more expensive than the yield would suggest.
Seven Oaks Rathmines, rent asking €800/suggested yield based on clearing rent of €750 = c.€120,000…
Sales asking, €195,000
Wynnfield Park Apartments, Rathmines…rent asking €895, clearing let’s say €850 = €132,000…
…and one for sale at €250,000:
Wicklow Court, Georges’s Street asking rent €850, suggesting a sale price of €130,000 tops:
Asking sale price, €275,000:
Courtney House Ranelagh, asking rent €900…
…should sell for c. €140,000. Again, no 1-bed for sale at the moment but this would be half the price they come on at.
My search was for 1-beds on Daft in Dublin 2, 4 and 6. I haven’t included any Docklands apartments because they are so head-wrecking to try and differentiate between I couldn’t be arsed searching. But I would suggest that the figures there are even more out of whack (except, ironically, for the ones available to FTB’s which are being, effectively, firesold, since these are the only ones priced even vaguely correctly wrt yields).
Therefore I think it is incorrect to say that for the crash to be shown to be continuing we need to see continued rental declines. Even if rents stopped falling today, all that would show is that sale prices are still up to 50% too high. Given rents probably *will *fall further, it’s likely even more than that with respect to 1-bed apartments anyway.