140% of GNP

By December 2012 - Ireland’s General Government Debt over GNP will be 140% and the highest in history

By December 2013 - Ireland’s General Government Debt over GNP will be 159% and the highest in the world

By December 2015 - Irelands General Government Debt over GNP will be 200% and the highest in the world

This is without more capital for the banks, without more capital for underfunded pensions

And the country will still be borrowing money to pay for public salaries, some medical consultants will still earn over €1m per year and undoubtedly folks in RTE will still be paid €400K per year.

what are we going to do about this?

why is it only the Quinns that get an action group

Where are you getting those figures from? How is the debt/GNP ratio going to rise by 19% of GNP in 2013 when we are expected to run a deficit of 7% GNP and GNP is expected to grow by 1%? Also when we get a deal on the money we have pumped into the banks from the EU, will this not reduce the debt/GNP ratio.

Hi everybody!

Question what to do about it? I for one had enough of the mismanegement of this country. This is what I am going to do about it. I am collecting data on key metrics like Irish wages, pensions, pay-outs and put them against Dutch, German and Finnish equivalents. When done, I will mail this to all members of parlement, media and other stakeholders in those countries.
I have been long enough in this country to know that change will not come from within, so it will need to be enforced.

If you have any ideas on interesting metrics and data sources, please let me know.

Hi PD :wink:

A great idea but there is not point in emailing it to the willfully ignorant.

Let it free and let people at it.

Jxbr, Coles2, Dreaded Estate, Evilal and so many other guys here are super slick with numbers.

You’ve not heard of Greece then?

If the ECB will fund the front of our curve then what’s the worry? The key is getting to a political point where that is possible… OMT² perhaps!

You got it in one: he’s making it up (and not for the first time).

Is anyone else reminded of Harry Enfield’s Jurgen - (without the apologies)?

before rushing to judgement people should be allowed the right of reply

anyway the message is still the same; public debt huge and growing, private debt huge and falling slightly thru defaults, liquidations
pensions non existent, NPRF pissed against the wall, no gold reserves worth talking about

+1, who cares if the figures are off by 5% at this stage - whats another 5 or 10% anyway - the fact is it’s a mountain and it’s only getting bigger and there is little to be positive about

Never heard of Japan either. WGU will be quite disappointed. Time to rename the site Dublandic…


If I do, does that mean I’ll get nothing but laments about the shocking dearth of good quality family homes, moans about private school fees and queries for a good salmon-and-feta quiche recipe?

Zimbabwe ain’t too hot either.

You know the argument is lost when “Zimbabwe” is your go-to-play.


Yes that’s the point. Japan has it’s own money tree, so it has 0.75% 10 year yields, as it can print money to meet any obligation. Zimbabwe has been printing money for ten years now. I have a 500 million zim dollar note. Loan them money if you want but you won’t get paid.

Greece has a priced in default at 19% 10 year yields bonds trading at around 20% of face (so it’s not in the world)

Ireland long term debt will trade at 75% of face - so despite the bull in irish bonds there is still a 24% discount to germany.

I don’t see how GNP is going to grow next year in Ireland, as if the ECB is funding the front of the curve, that is in an effort in its mind to get its money out of the banks and onto the governments balance sheet. (so it will consider to reduce lending to the private sector in favor of reduced but continued lending into the state sector)

the real trick will be getting Europe to go the whole hog and mutualise - I don’t think that will happen so the Euro will fall apart because of Spain, Southern Italy - and Ireland will still be outside the club, with Greece, portugal, slovenia, cyprus and possibly even belgium and france

Since this is a property pin. That means that houses in ireland will be repriced in punt nuas some time around 2015.

The government sector will devalue rapidly and the real trading sector will boom after 10 years of pent up demand. So buy a house 4 months after ireland exits the euro in late 2015

The euro equivalent price fall in irish houses will be 90% peak to trough by then

Here is an excellent recent paper by Dr Gideon Gono.

rbz.co.zw/pdfs/2012%20MPS/Mi … 202012.pdf

65 pages of keynsian/monatarist bullshit. He has some excellent ideas on banking reform. Change the title page and the signature and it could be any central banker in the world talking. Poor guy, a central banker without a currency to play with. Its inhuman. How come he was the first one to get found out - he was only doing the same thing as all the other boys…

Debt to GDP is not the problem with Zimbabwe
What is cited as a problem is hyperinflation
What is causing this political instability, corruption and Mr Mugabe etc etc etc
The hyderinflationist have been thoroughly routed and citing Hyperinflation is BS

This is a reasonably good sumamry


I never said it was. The opening post refered to Ireland with regard to “By December 2013 - Ireland’s General Government Debt over GNP will be 159% and the highest in the world” - I was simply stating that this is incorrect as Zimbabwe’s is higher.

I wasn’t using Zimbabwe as an argument for/or against debt sustainability I was merely stating that it’s Debt to GNP ratio will still be higher than Irelands in 2013.