Spent a bit of time trying to work out what proportion of homes are worth less now than they were when they were bought, and the related question of how many homes are in negative equity.
A first stab is up here: ronanlyons.wordpress.com/2009/05 … ve-equity/
If there had to be “three key points”, I’d say:
- Homes now are at March 2005 values - or July 2004, if asking prices are 10% above closing prices
- About 725,000, or 40% of homes are worth less now than when they were bought
- About 340,000, or 20% of homes are in negative equity
This is very much a first stab at this, and once it’s “in a good place” can be updated relatively easily, so all comments, questions and suggested improvements to get it to that “good place” welcome.
My first conundrum is how to take out from those figures the number of ‘re-sales’, i.e. people who’ve bought since July 2004 but who got out again (and more than likely back in again), i.e. remove whatever double-counting is going on in there. Any thoughts?
PS. By way of comparison, negative equity in Northern Ireland was estimated last month at 5% (irishtimes.com/newspaper/fin … 74294.html), so this would mean we’re a lot worse off down South, if both figures were accurate.