2009 Predictions

Link to last thread seem as though we seem to have forgot…

thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=4383&start=0&hilit=prediction+2008

Not bad - el stuntsman

Pure carnage. Everywhere.

My preds for 2009 are:

DOW end year at 11,000.DEC 2008 9,000.i.e +20%
ECB interest rate to drop to 1.5%
Daftwatch props for sale to rises to 90,000
Lisbon is a “YES”(rigged)
Substantial increase in immigration(especially from non EU area)
House prices to fall a further 10%
Oil $100 barrel
25,000 new houses to be built.
Food and energy prices to increase dramatically(20-30%)
ECB will continually say they are commited to controlling inflation and that it is currently only 2/3/4%
ECB abolishes its limit on individual government budget deficits
Going out on a limb here…UK to adopt Euro!by then EURGBP will probably be 1.25,thereby guaranteeing the impoverishment of the entire poulation,a few years ago it was 0.65 - the BRITISH PEOPLE WILL HAVE HAD HALF THEIR WEALTH ROBBED FROM THEM.

I think you’re a tad bit optimistic there Prof. House prices to fall a further 10%, are you serious?

Here’s what I see:

Ireland Inc. to be declared insolvent in September/October 2009 resulting in the IMF intervention. cue unrest and protests in the streets

House prices will fall another 30%

Unemployment will soar to around 14-15%

Lisbon II is rejected.

There may be trouble ahead
But while there’s music and moonlight and love and romance
Let’s face the music and dance

Before the fiddlers have fled
Before they ask us to pay the bill and while we still have the chance
Let’s face the music and dance
8DD

Sounds like a lot of this is going on pre Christmas within certain Financial Institutions.

8-

didn’t do too well last year, lets try again.

Unemployment up to 12% nationally, locally to hit 15% someplaces
Economy retracts 5%
Government to get 10% of GDPs worth of loans
Net emigration, perhaps even net population decline
House prices to fall another 15% to 20%
Iseq to drop below 2000, get close to 1500.
1 maybe 2 banks will cease to exist as independent entities, I’m thinking Anglo and one other.
Lisbon to pass.
Deflation of 2% - 4%
Attempt at major rationalisation of civil service with huge protests against.

Somebody, somewhere, will be having a toffee crisp.

  • General prices to decline by 3-4%. House prices to decline by 20%, or more if a capitulation event occurs.
  • Debt defaults to reach record levels. Banks’ current bad debt provisions will be greatly exceeded. Government will be called on for further recapitalization funds. Courts will be unable to process mortgage foreclosure application backlog.
  • Unemployment to continue to rise, reaching 12% by year end.
  • ISEQ to flatten out above 2,000.
  • ECB ends year with interest rates at 1.25%.

My predictions…

  • Unemployment to reach 11% by year end (would be higher but will see attrition due to increased immigration)
  • Attempts by FF/Greens to instigate Public Sector Reforms will lead to strikes - Transport & ESB will be the main culprits here.
  • Dell to announce a phased 18 month withdrawal from Limerick.
  • Intel to scale back operations in Leixlip dramatically.
  • Another MNC will leave - not sure who yet
  • House Prices will decline by a futher 25% -there will be 28,000 completions this year.
  • EU Commission will declare the Irish Social Housing scheme breaches Directives - Government and CIF will attempt to formulate a new “cunning” plan.
  • ISEQ will hit a low of 1300-1400 by October and will have recovered to 1700 by YE.
  • Anglo Irish Bank will cease to exist around July or August (at the latest).
  • Lisbon II will be passed by the skin of its teeth.
  • Aer Lingus/ Ryanair merger will be completed by YE2009
  • Country will be declared bankrupt by October 2009 - IMF will take over - FF/Greens will fall and a General Election will ensue - FG/Labour Government to emerge as new Government. FF drop to 30% - SF will make significant gains and Libertas will gain 2/3 seats as well.
    *Widespread civil unrest - rise of right-wing groups targeting immigrants.

So not pretty…

my predictions:

People here will get bored reading about property

Never :smiley:

It’s already happened!

This place is about the economics, man.

my political ones were spot on, the Irish bank collapse and Dell predictions will take a couple of months longer

my soccer predictions on the other hand :unamused:

Thats quite a limb - an artifical one I would say.

You would require a referendum - that wont happen without a GE first. Can’t see it, but a GE isn’t impossible.

However, as mentioned elsewhere (hello YM 8) ) the Tories will need to be behind this - and probably in power first. They are down to a 5 point lead at the moment, pointing to a hung parliament. A hung parliament will not take such a momentous decision. A referendum would only pass with all the main parties in agreement - this is still some way off and would require a scale of crisis that is hard to imagine.

OK,I’ve been so reserved in my opinions until now,here go’s…

Alan Curbishley for Ireland manager,add that to the list!!!

thepropertypin.com to be renamed immigrationandpublicsectorwatch.com

Before I post predictions don’t assume that emigration reduces the unemployment % rate. It may in fact increase it, as the workforce falls, but the unemployed remain.

This one REALLY scares the crap out of me. Better half is non Irish, and we have a wain in the post. And let me just say, chances are the wee beanie will not look Irish at all. It is this that would REALLY make me consider bailing ship.

  • Bankruptcy law will be overhauled to be less punitive towards private citizens as thousands of people find themselves in deep financial trouble.