2020 US Presidential Race


#82

If it’s that easy to do it are you basically saying that the Republicans are too dumb or too honest to do it? Given that electoral district gerrymandering has been a staple of both parties since the founding of the US I don’t buy the dumb/honest argument.
Trumps plan will be to encourage ‘patriots’ to ‘defend’ polling stations and to ‘check’ on voters ‘papers’. There is a problem to this that he hasn’t foreseen but I’m sure you’re smart enough to work that out.


#83

Opportunity, if you control the large cities, eg Chicago, NY ect its very easy to “find” extra votes when you need them, mayor Daley in Chicago was very good at this, as uncle Joe said, It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes

Its all seems to be set up now for a real shit show in November, its possible for Trump to win fair and square IMO, the polls show him behind but I suspect there might be a large number of shy Trump voters who could push him over the line. This will cause protests and god knows what in places like Portland. then there is the possibility of Trump winning the early vote and Biden slowly winning the postal vote, this may be even worse, lot of out comes, none of them good


#84

Or, at least, he had several conversations about it, which is as good as the real thing.

Hope that’s not the green-eyed monster rearing it’s ugly head! Sad if so.

On the topic of possible conspiracies. There were quite a number banker suicides over the last few years.

It is possible this was a tragic isolated incident, but it’s also possibly there is a larger conspiracy worthy of investigation behind that story.


#85

Must have been the Russians again.


#86

Too funny…


#87

https://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country

All pointing the wrong direction for trump at the moment.


#88

Ignore the polls. They got it completely wrong in 2016. Trump has it in the bag (unless the Dems manage to cheat with mail-in ballots). Vast majority of people are sick of the Antifa/Burn Loot Murder crap and the left’s support of it, Dementia patient Joe will get torn apart in the debates if they actually take place.


#89

That IBD poll might have been one of the few to get 2016 more or less correct.

On the other hand, there is a social cost (and professional and financial) to declaring any support for Trump. Therefore Trump is more likely to underpoll that Biden. We ought to have a thread here on polling accuracy.

The other point is that so far Biden has yet to actually do anything. He is a remarkably invisible candidate. No rallies, no press conferences (without softball questions), no debates. Presume that’s their strategy. Maybe they are waiting for something.

Yesterday someone in NY told me that he hoped the rioting and violence would stop when there was a ‘change in Administration’. In other words, until you vote for Joe we’ll keep rioting.


#90

Yes I remember the IBD poll well and it did prove to be the best of the 2016 race - it caused some acrimony on here when I referred to it repeatedly in the the run up to the vote!


#91

According to Fire Dept more than 25,000 went to two Trump rallies in Nevada, waiting in 100 degree heat and defying shelter at home orders. Enthusiasm in his base. I recall few came to Hilary’s rallies and that was a talking point in 2016.

Some insights in this article:

Robinson, a Black woman, said that people would be surprised at just how many people of color support Trump even though the stereotype of Trump supporters is that they are white.

“Because of the hate that you get for saying that you’re a Trump supporter, a lot of them just step back and don’t really speak out,” she said. “But you’d be amazed at how many there are.”

By contrast c.7,000 at 2016 Rally in Henderson, NV


#92

Which is why i posted it. As far as i remember most national polls had hillary at +2% which was accurate in its own non relevant way.

I don’t think anyone seriously thinks that the riots etc are of any advantage to biden.

Its a long time since the debates made any difference and they both are poor debaters but is one of the few ways trump could turn it around.

Comeys intervention on the hillary emails was certainly one gamechanging moment in 2016.

The economy is in the toilet, heading back into a covid winter…


#93

All good points. At present the IBD poll does not look good for Trump.

But look at this trend:

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

Closing the gap and seems to be momentum


#94

A conspiracy theory. :roll_eyes: The end result was 100+ days of arson, looting, almost forty murders and billions of dollars in property damage in democrat-run cities while the police and justice system allowed it to happen.


#95

#96

In November Trump will romp home in New York. Many Americans will wonder…Gee whizz… how’d he manage that? Meanwhile in Ireland…


#97

Im interested in why you would believe that.

I dont follow American politics to the same extent as some here but I would have had a sense that months of riots tacitly tolerated by the anti Trumpers would have been good for Trump.

However, in opposition to this the polls seem to suggest that Biden is ahead.

So what are the suggestions that Trump will win based on?

Again, I understand that the media are biased and despise Trump. I also understand that the polls leading into Trump 2016 and Brexit were way off.

However there must be a base reason or source (beyond partiality) for suggesting that Trump is likely to win big. What is it?


#98

I don’t belive it at all, I was being sarcastic. Wouldn’t it be strange though in the light of suspected Russian interference highlighted recently!


#99

Haven’t been following the election as closely as I did in 2016, but once again I think he’s got a chance for similiar reasons to 2016.

ELections are obviously won on the margins - i.e discount the voters who would vote same every time just because they are die hard democrats or republicans. To win an election you need to appeal to the fence sitters and get people out to vote who would not normally vote. Obama is an excellent example, as is Trump.

His great strength is there are large numbers of people who vote for him, not because he is a Republican, or because he’s not a Democrat, they vote for him because he’s Donald Trump and they think he’s fabulous. Just like Obama.

In 2016 he was up against a candidate who inspired nothing, and came across as feeling entitled to win.

Biden inspires nothing, but at least he does not come across as entitled. His party does though.

Of course, this time Trump’s great weakness is after four years theres a large swathe of voters who really, really hate him, to counter the ones that love him.

If there are enough of these, who are not routine dem voters, and are energised enough to vote against him, then he will lose, but I think he’s in with a fighting chance that plenty of the people who hate him might routine dems or be too busy ranting on twitter to get out and vote.

Bottom line is if Trump wins, it will be nothing to do with Biden, it will be because he’s Donald Trump. If Biden wins it will be nothing to do with Biden, it will because he is not Donald Trump. That’s actually a big advantage for Trump in terms of voter engagement.

Whoever wins there will be carnage!


#100

RBG is dead.

Is that Net positive or negative for Mr Trump?


#101

Positive, would be my guess