25% of Second Home Owners to Bail Out of Market by 2010

[2Pack]

and thats within 2 years in the UK ( Jacobmarley posted this in the Central Bank) . Lets compare it with Ireland then .

guardian.co.uk/business/2008 … econdhomes

@jacobmarley

Up to 25% of those with more than one property sell up in response to falling property prices, according to a report out today.

A study by Capital Economics, a forecasting and consultancy group, said almost 60,000 homes could be placed on the market in England alone, adding to the downward pressure on prices. The south west would be hardest hit with the Midlands the least affected part of the country.
pshots of the trend.

Shah said that there were 240,000 second homes in England, of which 40% were bought as investments and a further 40% as a holiday or retirement home. She estimated that 57,600 could be put on the market in the next two years, adding between 4-6% to the supply of homes. “It is extremely difficult to gauge how much of an effect this would have on prices”, she said. “But given that conditions in the market look like being pretty dire, the effect of an extra supply could be substantial.”

I hate to tell ye that we Irish have the same number of Second Homes in absolute terms, near enough 240k of them .too …although the banks own a lot at present and not all of those are finished off either .

In population weighed terms… we Irish have 14 Times More ( 1,400% ) Second Homes in Ireland than the Brits have in the UK .

Were 25% of the holders to bail out thats 60k homes to be processed , 2 years worth of peak household formatiomn demand to be reassigned .

3 years worth of building at current rates . Then again a lot of ‘second home’ owners in the UK are Irish as well.

Its The Empties Stoopid !!

[Sidewinder]

[pedantry]240K in England 2pack, there’s probably as many again in Wales and Scotland [/pedantry]

Still though, relatively speaking even if you double the UK figure…

[2Pack]

@Sidewinder

[pedantry]240K in England 2pack, there’s probably as many again in Wales and Scotland [/pedantry]

Still though, relatively speaking even if you double the UK figure…

only england , ahhh!!

You would still have a job Sidewinder, Wales and Scotland only have about 8m people and are ( combined ) one 6th of the English population . They also have maybe 4% empty as against 3% empty in England and about the same level of owner occupancy, 70% ish .

Not much to play with there

statistics.gov.uk/images/charts/1105.gif

[Seanfhonduir]

If 25% will bail out in the UK will 75% bail out here?

Its a distinct possibility and explains how they can hold out longer whether it be for a higher sale price or rent.

It also ties in completely with the wages break down of buyers as posted previously …

and ties in with all the empties … estimated to be over 330,000 at this stage isnt that right 2pack!!

In recent years, more than 75 per cent of Bank of Ireland investment customers have availed of the bank’s ten-year interest-only mortgage, according to Bank of Ireland Mortgages Manager Olive Moran.

finfacts.com/irelandbusiness … 5328.shtml
as posted previously here in the “interest only loans” thread and on the arandomwalk site.

[A_Random_Walk]

Where do they have to bail out to? Half the country has an “investment property”, the rest of the country don’t care.

[Sidewinder]

@A Random Walk

Where do they have to bail out to? Half the country has an “investment property”, the rest of the country don’t care.

You know, I think it’s only now that the full extent of the madness is becoming clear…even to us Pinsters! Sure we always knew it was a bubble and it was all a bit mad, but now we can look around and see just how much damage was done and how much trouble half the country are in.

There’s no way this can end well. It’s just too big and too mad.

brain melts

[A_Random_Walk]

Don’t forget that foreign investment in Irish property is approximately zero. This is not Bulgaria where you have hope of finding some greater fools elsewhere in the world.

[Sidewinder]

I heard a figure, unsourced, the other day that a total of €1.2 trillion has been “invested” in foreign property over the last 15 years or so by Canny McSavvy

Does anyone know if that is anywhere near accurate, or is it a massive wild exaggeration? Even for the uber-exuberant Robopaddy that seems a bit on the high side!

[2Pack]

@Sidewinder

I heard a figure, unsourced, the other day that a total of €1.2 trillion has been “invested” in foreign property over the last 15 years or so by Canny McSavvy !

Cannys assets worldwide may have peaked at that level, yes. Leverage was quite a lot of that €1.2Tr figure …if indeed its true.

Its 6 years of 2007 GDP alone …and 7 years of 2007 GNP .

[The_AH_Guy]

In recent years, more than 75 per cent of Bank of Ireland investment customers have availed of the bank’s ten-year interest-only mortgage, according to Bank of Ireland Mortgages Manager Olive Moran.

I did not know that. No wonder international investers are very wary of Irish banks. It might also explain why BOI’s share price has gained the least (1%) since Paddys Day.

[Seanfhonduir]

@A Random Walk

Where do they have to bail out to? Half the country has an “investment property”, the rest of the country don’t care.

thats what will cause the fall down… the fight to get out!

Lets not forget this has been going on since 2001 and people holding vacant properties can afford to drop the price back to 2001 levels before they start to make a loss.

[Seanfhonduir]

@The AH Guy

In recent years, more than 75 per cent of Bank of Ireland investment customers have availed of the bank’s ten-year interest-only mortgage, according to Bank of Ireland Mortgages Manager Olive Moran.

I did not know that. No wonder international investers are very wary of Irish banks. It might also explain why BOI’s share price has gained the least (1%) since Paddys Day.

arandomwalk.com/forums/index.php … owtopic=60
arandomwalk.com/forums/index.php … owtopic=58

Its getting hard to search the pin, we should have a thread where we can add “Key posts or topics” to.

[xman]

@Sidewinder

There’s no way this can end well. It’s just too big and too mad.

brain melts

Sit down Sidey. Have a little drink. There, there good man…

Now, can I interest ya in a coupl’a luxury apartments in a half finished building site/muddy field? They’re only half an hour from the middle o’ nowhere y’know.

Don’t miss the boat or you’ll fall off the ladder!!

[Sidewinder]

@xman

Sit down Sidey. Have a little drink. There, there good man…

Now, can I interest ya in a coupl’a luxury apartments in a half finished building site/muddy field? They’re only half an hour from the middle o’ nowhere y’know.

Don’t miss the boat or you’ll fall off the ladder!!

Is Ryanair flying there next year?