I’ve deliberately left out the word ‘just’ from the IT headline, because 26% sounds to me like a fair amount. And I think this is a reality in the situation that needs to be kept in mind. NAMA isn’t just about bailing out some Golden Circle. It’s also carrying the hopes of a Golden Horde who feel their fortunes are tied up in property values. I’d suspect its also a group that actually opens its mouth and speaks, hence its a 26% that is used to being taken notice of.
What do we know about this 26%? According to the survey:
Now, I’m shy about summarising all that as I’m sure there are several different and distinct categories of people involved. I’m pretty sure that 26% of voters are not 30 year old, middle class FF supporters from Longford. Yet, those seem to be the factors in play.
So, I’ve no real conclusions apart from noting that there is a far from negligible amount of support out there. 1 in four voters isn’t enough to win an election. But its enough to block a revolution if the opposition is leaderless and rudderless. I mean, its certainly enough to explain all the folderol and hype about the need to get the banks lending again. As I think has been queried in several threads here, where are these otherwise solvent businesses that are dying for lack of credit? Lack of credit from domestic Irish banks was hardly a factor in Dell’s departure. But the waffle makes a bit more sense when we see there actually is a significant number of voters lapping it up.
Does anyone else see any points of interest in the survey details presented?
So even among dyed-in-the-wool FF supporters, they cant even achieve a majority in favour of NAMA.
The government not only has a job convincing the electorate, they have a job convincing their own electorate.
My belief is that its not NAMA people are against, but the purpose on which it was founded - bailing out the banks and developers.
Society is being forced to bail out the rich.
I believe these figures show that even among FF supporters, the trust in their own government is gone.
IT’s important not to confuse the paid up membership with grassroots support. I believe that the green party members are much more in support of NAMA than the typical voter.
In any case it’s more complex thatn that. Recently thier position has strengtened, the 2 by elections and the election of Pat the Cope to Europe has left the greens as king makers. So they see big results coming form thier renegotiated programme of government, carbon tax, abloition of donations, and a big planning bill from Gormley. All great stuff and very necessary. This is what will be sold to members at conventions on the 12th of sept and the 10 of Oct. So the likely hood of the greens going against NAMA has decreased.
I’ve been sounding this out over the last two weeks and it dose not look good. Mary White is glad to have “green footprints” all over NAMA and Paul Gogarty is only concerned with preventing cutbacks in primary education.
And I believe that the majority of paid up members of the Green Party joined since they formed this government and are just environmentally concerned FFers. The Greens are a margin of error that should be ignored except for their historical legacy of having current TDs from a past General Election. They won’t pull the plug on NAMA.
If they pass NAMA there will be no need for a carbon tax, 10 or 15 lost years will do more for reducing CO2 emmissions than a carbon tax ever could.
And I wish Gormless luck with his king making! To get his wish list he will need the budget to be passed and what are the chances of that? December’s budget will have to be the most savage in a generation if we are to keep the IMF from the door and it will only take another FF backbencher to go on a solo run in an attempt to salvage their political career to have the budget fall, that’s of course assuming the present Government even make it as far as December, between Lisbon and NAMA, FF could well have torn themselves apart by then.