2pack, are we at the top?


#1

Not sure if @2Pack is still around? I could understand if he’s moved on (what with the gatecrashers and all).

2pack was on the ball (again) calling the top in 2018. My observations of the market is we have surpassed 2018 prices in a matter of 3 months, illustrating that prices really are quick to rise.

I’d love to get 2packs (or anyone else) view on where the market is at now and predictions for house prices.

Are these prices going to hold??

Now the country is slowly going to start opening up surely supply will increase?


#2

Yes. Everything is fine. Buy all you can. Fill your boots.


#3

That’s really helpful TheCountryChef, thanks.


#4

There’s too much uncertainty all round for anyone to make solid predictions. Too many ‘what ifs’.

There’s potential for prices to continue to increase into the short to medium term but there’s also potential for prices to be impacted downward by negative economic fallout post lockdown/pup. There’s a lot of people who may be in a precarious position vis a vis meeting bank’s stress tests post lockdown.

On the other hand a lot of people appear to have accumulated savings over the past 12 months. And there is clearly a lack of supply.

Still, for those of us who remember, there is a distinct whiff of late 2005 about what seems to be transpiring at present.


#5

Winning with property. Winning all round. Go paddy.


#6

Love the optimism. I’ll have whatever you’re drinking.


#7

Have 2. Buy, buy, buy…

No wait?


#8

My own feeling is 2021 will be a new peak due to lack of supply but prices will fall a bit (10% max) once we reopen.

Friend feels the same and is selling up in Dublin this Summer and heading to Cork.

But who knows


#9

It’s extremely difficult to predict at the moment, we have two potentially massive economic destabilisation events happening simultaneously, Brexit and Biden’s elimination of Ireland’s corporate tax rate advantage.

In long term trends we’ve the outcome of the pandemic to contend with and the rise of Asia/Far East coupled with the decline of the West. Ireland’s influence on EU policy will be non existent going forward. Long term demographics trends across Europe are mostly in decline (Ireland is exception to this but for how much longer) hence the housing stock might not be required. Assuming population growth continues it will be mostly non white immigrant driven leading to potential political instability.

So I’m not particularly rosy about Ireland’s future but I’m naturally a bit cynical, so I’m open to reasons why house prices will increase. The argument for is to get out of cash, but there might be better opportunities than housing atm.


#10

That’s the best argument for alright.

Generally uncertainty across the board would mitigate against purchasing any class of asset, but at the moment there don’t appear to be many alternatives.


#11

I have listened to perfectly coherent arguments for everything and against everything. The safest thing to do is to diversify. Although I’ve listened to sound arguments against this also :smiley:.
For some reason I’m reminded of an old movie where a comedy actor walks down the line in the middle of two opposing armies wearing half of each of their Uniforms. He gets incredible cheers from both sides until he gets carried away with the applause and accidentally turns back the other way which doesn’t bode well for him. I can’t remember the movie.