2pack, are we at the top?

property-market-sentiment

#1

Not sure if @2Pack is still around? I could understand if he’s moved on (what with the gatecrashers and all).

2pack was on the ball (again) calling the top in 2018. My observations of the market is we have surpassed 2018 prices in a matter of 3 months, illustrating that prices really are quick to rise.

I’d love to get 2packs (or anyone else) view on where the market is at now and predictions for house prices.

Are these prices going to hold??

Now the country is slowly going to start opening up surely supply will increase?


#2

Yes. Everything is fine. Buy all you can. Fill your boots.


#3

That’s really helpful TheCountryChef, thanks.


#4

There’s too much uncertainty all round for anyone to make solid predictions. Too many ‘what ifs’.

There’s potential for prices to continue to increase into the short to medium term but there’s also potential for prices to be impacted downward by negative economic fallout post lockdown/pup. There’s a lot of people who may be in a precarious position vis a vis meeting bank’s stress tests post lockdown.

On the other hand a lot of people appear to have accumulated savings over the past 12 months. And there is clearly a lack of supply.

Still, for those of us who remember, there is a distinct whiff of late 2005 about what seems to be transpiring at present.


#5

Winning with property. Winning all round. Go paddy.


#6

Love the optimism. I’ll have whatever you’re drinking.


#7

Have 2. Buy, buy, buy…

No wait?


#8

My own feeling is 2021 will be a new peak due to lack of supply but prices will fall a bit (10% max) once we reopen.

Friend feels the same and is selling up in Dublin this Summer and heading to Cork.

But who knows


#9

It’s extremely difficult to predict at the moment, we have two potentially massive economic destabilisation events happening simultaneously, Brexit and Biden’s elimination of Ireland’s corporate tax rate advantage.

In long term trends we’ve the outcome of the pandemic to contend with and the rise of Asia/Far East coupled with the decline of the West. Ireland’s influence on EU policy will be non existent going forward. Long term demographics trends across Europe are mostly in decline (Ireland is exception to this but for how much longer) hence the housing stock might not be required. Assuming population growth continues it will be mostly non white immigrant driven leading to potential political instability.

So I’m not particularly rosy about Ireland’s future but I’m naturally a bit cynical, so I’m open to reasons why house prices will increase. The argument for is to get out of cash, but there might be better opportunities than housing atm.


#10

That’s the best argument for alright.

Generally uncertainty across the board would mitigate against purchasing any class of asset, but at the moment there don’t appear to be many alternatives.


#11

I have listened to perfectly coherent arguments for everything and against everything. The safest thing to do is to diversify. Although I’ve listened to sound arguments against this also :smiley:.
For some reason I’m reminded of an old movie where a comedy actor walks down the line in the middle of two opposing armies wearing half of each of their Uniforms. He gets incredible cheers from both sides until he gets carried away with the applause and accidentally turns back the other way which doesn’t bode well for him. I can’t remember the movie.


#12

I honestly could not say…things being so weird right now.


#13

I agree things are weird, perhaps weirder than at any time in history. Things have often been much worse in the past, of course, but the economy today is simply bizarre with the stock markets at record highs and cryptocurrencies booming and NFTs and SPACs and…

Still, it is possible to answer the question. We are not yet at the top because supply is still drastically curtailed and the ECB is priming demand by flushing money through the system.

The top is when supply meets demand. It could be followed by a crash if the ECB mistimes its next move, like it did in 2008/09.

Some sectors might reach the top sooner e.g. demand for small city centre apartments might decline due to WFH just as supply of these apartments comes on stream. But that demand will shift elsewhere e.g. to houses near larger towns might attract WFH refugees from larger cities.

The Pin was created to warn about the last bubble but too many posters here wrongly assumed the pandemic would collapse our housing market last year. I don’t think we have a bubble now - the situation is entirely different to 2006.

A bigger risk is that we will have a return of general inflation i.e. all prices will rise because more money is chasing the same amount of goods & services. We don’t see much of that yet but people have forgotten the misery of stagflation.


#14

The great inflation-deflation debate revisited!


#15

Second-property mortgage explosion!


#16

What is the Cantillon Effect?

https://materials-risk.com/what-is-the-cantillon-effect/


#17

Fuck off spammer > https://thepropertypin.com/u/matrix_nlp2050 :frowning:


#18

Spammer please explain?


#19

You are serially pasting in shite that has nothing to do with the thread and does not qualify as ‘discussion’ :frowning:


#20

The original thread states “I’d love to get 2packs (or anyone else) view on where the market is at now and predictions for house price”

Well I’m anyone else.

So to understand at this point in time where the market stands because of these strange days I simply am adding in some factors such as inflation-deflation, what’s happening in the usa, and the cantillon effect which may apply to where the market is going? Sorry If you misinterpreted my opinion as a spammer? Where is your opinion and what can you add?