2Pack will call the bottom now!


#1

Bottom in South Dublin and Galway City has finally been reached (or as near as) for houses. Fill yeer boots there lads. :slight_smile:

Could be quite some time before bottom is reached in commuter belts such Naas and Drogheda and Tuam though, perhaps two more years.

As for Athy or Longford or outer Cavan… depends on how enthusiatic they get with the necessary demolitions. No flattee flattees = No Bottom for years to come yet.

Yes this is a crooked sort of a bottom and don’t believe Ken McDonald when he tries to peddle you an apartment in Clondalkin instead of a house. Bottom for apartments is another year away in Dublin and Galway I should think.


#2

Close but not there yet (Dublin). Reckon another 15% approx to go in Dublin, for houses also. Bottom next year. Despondency after current increases are shown to be just a bounce.


#3

Can you outline your logic ?

I still think the current ‘bottom’ in houses is temporary, as even the withheld apartments will, upon release, have an impact on SCD house prices.
Also, the budget deficit is still too wide to believe that there will be no major impact on after-tax salaries, along with additional taxes and charges (especially property related). Add in the banks delaying of BTL repossessions and supply will pick up shortly.

I reacon houses could still have another 15% to go.
Apartments are a different kettle of fish.
Could easily have another 25% fall if NAMA and bank stock hits the market in any volume.


#4

So what are the bottom prices for houses in Galway City?
There are wide/varying/ambitions prices being quoted on property sites?


#5

+1 I’d like to see 2pack’s reasons though.

This feels like a pause for breath rather than a bottom. There’s no doubt that current prices are sucking in eager buyers, just like a collapsing share price does when some watchers think it can’t fall further.

Current house buyers are the ones loaded with cash. If the market falls another 10-15% it may not matter too much to them anyway.


#6

We may have hit LTEV in some markets. I think the continuing recession and the squeeze on after-tax incomes will mean an overshoot, though.


#7

I wonder if the recent, much touted increase in property prices will push up supply, and so deflate prices? Though the increase of 0.6% is low, and perhaps illusory, there is a sizable cohort that may see this as their last, best chance to offload a property. Witness the breathlessness of the mainstream media in the last few days…

Nevertheless (and for the benefit of those who may be new, or even newish to the Pin), 2Pack has been the single most prescient voice on this forum since I joined. I would place a lot of store by his opinion, even if it suits me not to, as I don’t intend to buy for a year at least. But there are a lot of me out there, competing for the same, few properties in SCD. And just because I was wrong on the upside does not mean I cannot be wrong on the downside as well.


#8

I believe the 15% annual declines have ended but I also believe that the trend is still downward albeit in a more shallow slope. I attribute this to the manipulation of the market by NAMA, lies by government and talking up of the market by shills whose vested interest is to shift on property and thats more easily done when there is a bouyant attitude of some light at the end of the tunnel amongst those who dont know any better.

I think we shall flatline for a short while until the current slight uplift/ dead cat bounce plays itself out then continue downward with a return to normal service and the introduction of property tax/site value/rates, increases in stealth taxes, widening of tax bands and then eventually the end of CPA when there will be the introduction of the bendover tax for anyone who earns more than tuppence. So a while to go yet methinks.


#9

That’s 2Pack and Dreaded Estate overboard. Wow.

I still say 20% to go for Dublin houses.


#10

Of course it will, it’s a text-book dead cat bounce. It has to happen, and it will. The latent supply out there is enormous. Prices can tick higher now for a few months… then the supply starts to pick up, the price appreciation falls, then starts to drop and supply comes even stronger putting you through the previous “bottom” and leading to capitulation (which will be the actual bottom, but nobody will care at that point).


#11

What effect will (inevitable) interest rate increases have? They may still be some time away but surely there’s going to be whole new crisis when it happens.


#12

+1

Although I believe the bottom for houses in Dublin was reached Q4 2011.

Apartments still have a lot further to fall given the volume of stock knocking round the market.

Anybody care to guess what the price rise will be next month?


#13

I dont think it is a Dead Cat event. Supply is genuinely constraining and this is caused by high rented sector demand in SCD and Galway City. PART of the demand in Galway City is a function of outrageous fuel prices pushing people inwards from the countryside. Rents may be higher but so are petrol prices.

Furthermore social activity outside the cities has collapsed, pubs and clubs in commuterville have closed on an epic scale and far more than in the citiies where social scenes are far more vibrant…even/especially for unemployed 20 somethings. You may see Westport County Mayo bottom this year for the exact same reasons.

Ultimately it is demand led in a constraining supply.

The first key indicator will be that houses clear off Daft much much faster in these areas as they are sold or go sale agreed instea d of lying around for years. The second indicator will be cranes over those myriad skeletons in Sandyford again. :slight_smile:

I confess hadn’t noticed DE calling a bottom and I must search for that. They have the IPW data so I would not disagree.


#14

Interest rate rises are a whole world away for the Eurozone.

Not sure about punta nua :wink:


#15

Interesting point/question. The impact of headlines about ‘increases’ will surely bring new supply in the months ahead which, along with the annual autumn pre-budget gloom-fest and the usual seasonal factors, will see prices fall off.

Then, as others have said, we could see a new level of despair as the stabilisation fails to turn into a surge. Cue the final plunge.


#16

Will be?

A brave man predicting that.


#17

You all forget that bits of the economy still work and they are generally located south of the Liffey and in Galway City (plus farming in Munster and Leinster).

Interest rates could go negative yet!


#18

Difficult to argue with that (except for the fact that I believe I was closest to predicting the bottom back in 2007 8DD even if I was wrong then like everybody else on here :blush:


#19

We had a competition in late 2007 and Pill outforecasted me, I predicted October 2011 ( Nationally) back then…Pill was later than me. I think we beat everyone else though!

I WAS CONSIDERED to be overly pessimistic at that time by many of the contributors to that thread :nin and the same people probably thought Pill was cuckoo altogether. :smiley: I didn’t predict a recovery off that bottom given the assumed state the banks would be in by the time it was reached. I am still not doing that.

This one will be **L **shaped and will only go towards a V shape when the national bottom is reached which is quite some time away yet ( and some carefully planned demolition) . Rural houses will be mangled some more by property taxes and fuel prices!


#20

Cork here :smiley:

Yea, seeing houses beginning to sell in the 'burbs.

Have felt that a “bottom” of sorts has been reached for most of this year to be honest. House prices now back to 2002 levels and in good areas, i don’t see this getting any lower (gut feeling)

I don’t think all boats are floating (or stopping sinking) on this tide though. Increased demand for good units in good locations will not trnasfer to shoeboxes in bally-Mcnowhere.

As always all things are relative. We have to see growth soon and future budgets cannot reduce disposable incomes any further else all bets are off…