2Pack will call the bottom now!


#585

Nope not Knockylon. I have no idea of the state of the places/amount of rooms etc but the areas cited are not at the lower end of desirability in South Dublin


#586

If you look on MyHome for properties under 500k you’ll find quite a few decent areas (Terenure, Goatstown, Milltown, Rathfarnham, etc). Remember that the median price of property sold in Dublin has been about 340k - 360k for most of this year. On the exemptions I’ve asked around and there are still exemptions available - some are tied to AIPs but most banks have a caveat that if the AIP has an exemption it has a shorter lifespan so inevitably some of these roll back into play if they are not taken up. I’m not convinced that exemptions have a huge effect on the market - as far as I can hear the banks spread them over the quarters based on numbers of sales in the previous years. This means that they can keep a customer who might move to another bank by suggesting that an exemption would be available in the next quarter - 12 weeks isn’t that long in the house buying game - and on average is 6 weeks at max - probably closer to 4/5 weeks.


#587

Reports from the trenches.

A friend of mine is a FTB in the market for a two-bed in the Grand Canal Dock area. She’s a very high earner, no kids, and is looking for something in the €400k-€450k bracket. She’s probably looking at an LTV of less than 50%.

She’s never actively looked at property til a few months ago and says the market is like a glacier. Open viewings where maybe one other person shows up, stuff sitting on the market for months at a time, EAs very happy to take calls. Looking at the PPR, she reckons a lot of unrealistic asking prices and sale prices probably down 5% from where they were at the very start of 2018. Some of this is seasonal, but she reckons investors are cashing out and none are coming in. Seven years have passed since the CGT exemption introduced in 2011, and gross yields are much more interesting elsewhere. The forthcoming Airbnb ban might also be having a dampening effect.

This is still all very anecdotal, but if the national market is going to plateau, or even dip, you would see it first at the very high end in Dublin.


#588

thats not the very high end though? we sold an apartment in blackrock 2years ago for well in excess of that.


#589

I think price per square metre in GCD can reasonably be described as ‘high end’.


#590

fair enough however i dont think you can call anything sub 500k as high end notwithstanding the per m prices, in absolute terms it isnt.

apartments on shelbourne road are high end and they are selling like hot cakes apparently


#591

CSO Residential Property Price Index – Oct 2018 figures are out

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … tober2018/

Dublin houses at

0.9% monthly change
2.8% quarterly change
5.7% change since Jan 2018
6.7% annual change


#592

I’ve just picked up on this. I don’t lurk on the forums much anymore.

2pack - re. Galway City and your prediction of June 2012, you hit the nail on the head (not just for houses, imo). We purchased purely for investment in Apr 2012. We were advised that the bottom was yet to hit, but that was the hit, as nothing I could see was bought cheaper than we did (given area, sq. ft).

We liquidated our last investment in Apr 2018 and were glad to get out. Not that we ever had bad tenants (NEVER had an issue with tenants), but we felt that given what we had, the market had peaked.

As I asked in the other thread, 2pack… when will we start to see reasonable value in Galway City again?! We’re waiting to find ourselves a home now.

-EDIT- Looking at the PPR, it was actually 2011 we bought, at a well-known auction held in Dublin. My sentiment still stands.


#593

rte.ie/news/business/2019/0 … ty-prices/


#594

CSO Residential Property Price Index – Nov 2018 figures

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ember2018/

Dublin houses at

-1.1% monthly change
0.3% quarterly change
3.8% change since Jan 2018
4.6% annual change


#595

20% of bank mortgages can breach the lending limits.
They use up these exemptions in the first 6 months of the year.

So prices go up in the first 6 months and fall back in the second half.

It’s a pattern that’s been happening for the past 3 years or so.
Was particularly evident last year though.


#596

There is a seasonal effect, but I don’t think it’s actually caused by the lending limits. It’s pretty clear in the quarterly rates of increase for the last six years since prices took off again, especially in the Dublin market. The CB lending limits were only introduced in 2015. Last year was a bit different – the spring/summer boost was at its lowest since 2013.


#597

The mood music is very different for 2019.


#598

True.


#599

What do posters mean by the mood is very different?


#600

Brexit, Trump, China starting to wobble seriously, populist eruptions all over Europe and a global economic cycle reaching its end soon with a cyclic recession.

Apart from all that the mood is good, if not great, and people still want to plan 25 years ahead in their new homes. :slight_smile:


#601

@2Pack
I see your friend Mario will be exiting stage left in Oct.

It has been a wild decade, and it’s worth remember how far things have changed post crisis to now.
rte.ie/radio1/doconone/2009/0528/645985-anatomy_of_a_recession/


#602

It does not look likely the ECB will raise any rates on his watch and if you look at my ‘next peak’ forecast some months back I think the market will peak before the ECB can be blamed for any of it. :slight_smile:

Mario would have loved to have raised interest rates at some stage in his career as chairman, now he never will. Nor do I think that rates will rise by more than 1% over the next 3 years no matter who is in charge of the ECB.


#603

I got a message about that, here is my answer.

"Your choice is rent or mortgage in Dublin.

Will Dublin rents cost more than a mortgage on the same property would, the way things look now they could. Will it always be like that from now on? Probably not once supply kicks in, but in the short term it could well be a mortgage is cheaper than renting and the short term could be 5 years.

Then again you need savings to get a mortgage nowadays, for Dublin this would mean €50k worth of savings. If not you will have to rent somewhere else whether you want to or not.

It is this difficulty in saving that leaves people ‘stuck’ with the vagaries of the rental market nowadays, If you have savings in the €50k range you have the choice, when I was first in the market for a 90% mortgage approval took 20 minutes, I showed 3 clear credit card statements and I simply got the 10% from the credit union at the last minute and paid half of it back when the first time buyer grant came in a few weeks later. Now you must produce bales of paperwork to get a mortgage and you need to show a savings capability to pass the stress test. "


#604

Yes, the ‘proof of savings record’ piece is the biggest piece of box-ticking BS by the banks.

Once they have a deposit they should be happy*. And in reality it doesn’t matter what your deposit is if you can’t pay the mortgage! LTI is a far more relevant variable for assessing probability of default than LTV.

Banks and regulators don’t really get this.

I went through hoops with bank for my mortgage in 2012.
Banks: “You have accounts all over the place and it’s not clear how much you’ve been saving monthly”
Me: “Well clearly I’ve been chasing yield for several years to assemble a deposit”
Bank: “Why didn’t you just save €x in a regular saver account for five years?”
Me: “Cos my income was volatile and I was chasing yield”
Bank: [delay of six weeks] “okay”

*oops I forgot repossession is near-impossible in Ireland