As I’ve repeated time and again, I see strong parallels with the UK market at this juncture.
Initial collapse here was staved off by lower rates, bank forebearance and courts slow to repossess.
This was backed up by a incessant, directed and almost uninversal media drumbeat of ‘its not too bad’.
Heavily biased reporting of house price indices also contributed.
I noticed this finally getting under way in Ireland in the last year or so.
The straw that broke the camels back, for me, was the non-repossession of underwater and in arrears BTL’ers.
More than that, the banks willingness to negotiate terms with them left me incredulous.
That takes extra supply off the market. No forced sellers means no pit below.
The key thing here isnt ‘market fundamentals’ or ‘investment yield’ its what people believe.
90% of the population get their information from the Indo and RTE; whatever they say is happening, is whats happening.
Sometimes the Pin can be a bit *over-*intelligent and ignore the human factor in all of this.
Remember the boom was ramped by RTE/Indo readers where any thinking person would have stood back.
Clearly the impetus was with the non-thinkers.
I think the same applies now.