2Pack will call the bottom now!


#401

dear god this thread has gotten childish.


#402

Nah, the last time was the time his Daft report had the wrong years next to the data, IIRC. It’s kinda hard to come back from that!


#403

Not so. I know of a principal earner aged 45 (partner aged 43) who just took out a 25 year mortgage @ 90% LTV. This was offered by BOI and PTSB.
Implicit in these offers is the understanding that a current 45 y.o. will work well beyond 65/66/67, or whatever a nominal future retirement age is currently pegged at.


#404

That’s also been my experience. I applied to BOI, PTSB and AIB.
AIB were insistant that the mortgage must be fully paid off before the beginning of the year in which I would turn 65.
BOI and PTSB had no problems with the mortgage running until I was 68. I didn’t ask for any longer than that, but got the impression that I could have got a few more years on the term if I really wanted.


#405

BOI are giving out mortgages up to age 70.


#406

Introspection Illusion

:angry:


#407

But would you really want one. My thinking is that As follows:
if a person bought a house in 06/07 on a 30 year mortgage, they would be almost a quarter of the way through their mortgage by now. Taking Lucan as an example asking prices are in the region of 66% of what they were back at the peak, then it doesn’t seem like buying back then was all that bad.

My reasoning is that the repayments on a house costing 250k today with a 90% LTV over 23 years cost in the region of 1300 euro per month. Hoping somebody can help me out with the figures but I would be thinking these repayments would be similar to that of someone who bought a house for 380k on a 30 year tracker mortgage in 06.

If my back of a cigarette box calculations are correct then this would see both people owning their house at the same time with similar repayments. So even if the bottom has not been and gone, then it seems rather pointless in holding off and renting for another few years rather than buying now.


#408

1,306.04 variable 4.47% from KBC.

Assuming 90% LTV and tracker ECB+1%, with the ECB being ~3% in '06, that’s 1,632.76 when it started and 1,139.72 now (great little tool incidentally).

If there were no change in wages or living costs such a comparison would be fair.


#409

Property market in Galway recovering more quickly than Dublin


#410

Using the figures in the article, the average price paid in Galway in 2012 was 165k, and in 2013 161k…


#411

Mar 2014 was far and away the worst month ever for Co. Galway.

Average prices were down 21% over Feb, and a whopping 28% over Mar 2013, to 128,810. This is by far the lowest average price for Galway since the PPR started.

Median prices were down an eye-popping 33% over Feb, and a whopping 21% over Mar 2013, to 104,000. This is by far the lowest median price for Galway since the PPR started.

It’s certainly not lack of volume – transaction volume was up 31% over last month, and a whopping 129% over Mar 2013.

This is such a staggering price collapse that I was suspicious that maybe a large block or estate was sold off cheap, skewing the numbers. Looking through the raw data, in fact there were a number of units in Connemara Way in Clifden sold for 33,929.00 each. So I stripped them out – still the worst month on record, with average prices of 137,568 and median of 115,714 (technically there was another month with median a tiny bit lower at 115,000).

I know this is going to upset a lot of people in this thread (2pack is still pretending to have me on “ignore” :slight_smile: ). But them’s the numbers.

Anyone have an actual explanation? Was this a one-off? Will Galway bounce back in April?


#412

Here’s one… what your seeing is a recovery in the county at last.

The city (where 2Pack called the bottom) has seen price rises for approx 2 years now, and there was a steady stream of transactions. There was bugger all happening out the country, where the average price was lower. Once the county starts to come back to life a drop in the median price coupled with an increase in the number of transactions is exactly what you’d expect to see happen.

And if you need convincing that the city prices aren’t rising, have a look here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=30005&start=585&hilit=o%27donnellan


#413

That makes some sense. I have not split into city/county. Although there’s only 100 transactions or so, so it would certainly be possible.


#414

Thank you (not! :mrgreen: ) for reminding me of that numpty, I had conveniently forgotten him since I put him on ignore…which of course was the whole idea.

Anyone with the slightest idea of how large Galway is would know that a stabilisation IN the county will not result in a stabilisation ACROSS the county either…mainly as a pickup in transaction volume in the county outside the city will be heavily skewed towards a doughnut stretching to no more than 20 miles from the city and likely for a good few years yet.

I have no idea why median was used as subsititue for average either, fortunately neither does the person who mentioned median prices either.

I’d say it will be 2020 before we see an upward trend across the county…eg in Glenamaddy and Williamstown and Portumna as well as the City and Athenry and Loughrea… etc etc.


#415

I reckon some sort of ‘Employment Opportunity Index’ overlay on the map of this fair isle would identify the various bottom areas versus the bubbling bits to a fair degree of exactitude.


#416

Exactly Tis! Rural areas such as East Galway were generally far more reliant on Construction than urban areas were. Galway, today, has indigenous businesses worth around €1bn on a good day but none are in rural galway or involve construction.


#417

It would clearly be instructive to split Galway into county/city. I don’t know the place well enough to do that, but as I said it’s only 100-odd sales (less the not-full-value ones). If someone wanted to strip out the non-City ones for example, I’d be grateful.

Edit: Here’s a link to a shared Google doc. If you would like to contribute, please add “city” or “county” to the first column.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ … sp=sharing


#418

2Pack & Mantissa just kiss and make up ok.

I’ve no time for nutburger specials today, the restaurant is packed and I’m down two part timers so go suck a lemon!


#419

OK. The Second Anniversary of this thread a rolls around.

I withdraw none of my original prediction…for the record. :smiley:


#420

you’re not quite at the anniversary yet… seem over-eager

i sense this because i sublimated into a Pin account and the Second Æther on that very day, 26th June 2012

none of this is coincidence, all of this has happened before, all of this will happen again… three heavy pigs, no more no less, lick blood from the fingers of the right hand, but what is the left hand doing? putting a deposit down on a second gaff and mortgaging the future.