2Pack will call the bottom now!


#421

I’d be interested in the “viewing figures” for the Property Pin. Any chance these could be published?

How influential was this thread in getting people to buy?

There was still an awful lot of economical gloom around in mid-2012 but 2Pack’s views would have carried serious weight with a lot of regulars on here.


#422

Are you suggesting 2Pack single-handedly moved the market with one post on an internet forum?


#423

It’s not one post… he’s been extremely aggressive with people (including me) who suggests he was wrong about the bottom; e.g. when I posted about the median prices in Galway being much lower than when he “called the bottom” . He currently follows me around posting about how he has me set on ignore and generally insulting me.

Another user would probably be banned or at least warned for his behaviour but mods have said he’s untouchable as far as they’re concerned.

So, just ignore him, there’s no point arguing.


#424

OK, but is that relevant to the implication that (s)he moved the market? Like, with his (its?) incredible alpha-(fe?)maleness?


#425

Dunno. How much pimping of the Galway market does it take to influence it? If it’s happening here, is it happening on other fora as well?


#426

Not single-handedly. And probably had negligible influence in reality but
it was a bold headline of a subject at the time for many months, on a forum read widely by many potential first time buyers, from someone with very good knowledge of the market, nationwide. I think a similar RTE / Irish Independent piece calling the bottom would not have been trusted by a skeptical Pin reading audience due to their previous records.

The supply and demand issues might seem obvious now but back in mid-2012, repossessions could have caused prices to fall further, or a euro exit or ending of MIR, to name three obvious ones.

I personally felt there would be a scramble once the bottom was obviously in, which has proven to be the case. It takes quite some time for the bottom to become clear though.


#427

Have you not been equally vociferous in declaring that median prices haven’t shifted. There’s a pair of yiz in it. In fact 2Pack may end up being right, though only hindsight will tell. You, on the other hand, are demonstrably wrong.


#428

No, I have not. I have been quite clear that median prices nationally and in Dublin have been up recently.

Citation needed. My median values have never been challenged in terms of their accuracy – lots of people don’t think they’re relevant, or don’t think they represent what’s actually happening, or think they are the product of substitution downwards rather than the market dropping, but your insinuation that my values are actually incorrect is intriguing. I look forward to your justification for that.


#429

There’s a big difference between accuracy and correctness, as the old adage about the stopped clock shows. I’m sure your median PPR numbers are fine, they just don’t demonstrate what you purported them to. Matching the PPR to actual house types shows a sharp increase in Dublin that you denied for a long time (I don’t know what your current stance is).


#430

OK, so when you say I am “demonstrably wrong” you actually agree that I am nothing of the sort.

You mean that you don’t think that median values are useful, which is a completely different thing. I’m not sure why you would be so aggressive in your assertion, essentially when your assertion turns out to be inaccurate.

You may or may not be incorrect about the relevance of the data, but IMHO it is never bad to look at the data. I have never represented it to mean anything other than what it means – that the median was previously flat (for example) when CSO data was up (medians are up now too FYI).

I know you want a pat on the back, so I’ll say it again – I have said many times that your address-matching analysis seems excellent. I have no reason to doubt it and I believe that it shows that like-for-like prices in Dublin houses (I think that was the data set) are up. The sample size is small but it is extremely useful. Please do more of it.

Some people seem to have a hard time accepting data or analysis that shows something other than what they’d like to see. I don’t know why. To me, more analysis and better analysis is always good. It all paints a part of the picture of what is an extremely complex market. If I’m wrong that prices will eventually fall further, I want to know it. Hence I welcome your analysis, even though the result is not something I relish.


#431

No, I mean exactly that. Plenty of times when people cited anecdotal evidence of soaring prices, you trotted out the median PPR figures. The problem is, you did it without qualification – you clearly understand the limitations of the data analysis since you have outlined them perfectly well above, but you seemed determined to ram it home. Maybe you just felt that one anecdote deserved another. Maybe you were sick of having to caveat every statement, every time. Seemed misleading to me, though. Btw, I do appreciate your analyses.


#432

I think it’s very interesting that CSO shows one thing and median values show something else. It tells you that the market is not strictly going up – perhaps like-for-like prices are up but at the same time people may be substituting down at the same speed, which tells you something about spending power and affordability. I strongly suspect that during the “big bubble” the medians would also have been rising, so this shows something different is going on. Anyone with an interest in the market should want to look at that.

I think you (and Esselte) underestimate Pinsters. I presume that showing the contrast between median values, average values and the CSO numbers is meaningful to most people, and if they don’t understand it they will ask.

Similarly, people regularly post the CSO numbers without caveating them as being mortgage-only. They regularly talk about asking prices as if they were selling prices. I used to call people on this but I’ve largely stopped because I reckon most Pinsters know the difference.

Perhaps we need some kind of a Caveat Bot that posts disclaimers then the CSO or PPR are mentioned :smiley:

Thank you. I have some ideas for the address-matching that I will PM you.


#433

Reported for breach of “no glee policy”.


#434

Three years off bottom, the bottom for Dublin houses proved to be August 2012 shortly after this thread kicked off and when the CSO Dublin house index reached 60.8 down from 100 in early 2005 ( and higher thereafter) . That index has bobbled around from 86 to 88 since peaking at 88.8 in December 2014 and was 87.8 in July 2015.

This thread would not be ANYWHERE as long as it is had 2 or 3 posters looked objectively at the facts rather than arguing against the evident facts ad nauseum and squabbling over utterly asinine definitions of ‘What is Galway’ all the time. Talk about seeing woods and trees, wha!!! :smiley:


#435

Any new predictions 2Pack? Where do you think things will go from here?


#436

+1


#437

Speak Almighty Oracle, speak


#438

That all depends on repossessions really. If the banks decide to clear the backlog of non performing mortgages on a large scale after the election it will result in price drops ( small ) for perhaps 2 years. Only around 30k mortgages are hard core non paying and wont pay types. That is one years demand for housing in Ireland from new household formations. Evicting the chaws will only free up that much housing…most of the rest of the non performing mortgages can be persuaded to perform to some extent and avoid homelessness. Even at 60k repossessions that is two years demand nationally.

There won’t be more than 60k repossessions and probably more like 30k at most. As house prices have risen 10% in a lot of areas where 2006 era mortgages are to be found the banks are making money doing nothing ( except writebacks on the balance sheet) for the more performing 30k who pay something. In time many will actually sell and pay off the bank themselves. They’ll be a few k a year for the next decade.

Then HPI should match GNP growth broadly from the end of repos period base across the country.

Underlying demand is roughly 30,000 household formations including returning emigrants and migrants a year we have had a long run of 10k Unit Starts and that means perhaps 20k empties are now mopped up every year plus the 10k starts. As this is the 6th year or so of 10k starts we have mopped up 100k empties and the surplus stock is not there in many areas…bar the North Shannon belt obviously.

Supply in Dublin and Galway cities is now well tight and this has led to GNP+ price rises in their commuter belt areas in the past year.

https://www.finfacts.ie/artman/uploads/5/Irish_housing_2014_2015_April102015.jpg

This graph from the always reliably excellent ( and free) Finfacts site. Allow for the 2021 figures applying in the 2016 period though, inbound migration is certainly higher than projected in the graph right now.

Overall we are looking at a plateau in 2016 and maybe 2017 …and matching GNP thereafter and overmatching GNP if supply remains constrained per the graph.

Item 1 will be to get housing starts up to around 20k a year in the wider GDA by 2017…otherwise we could be looking at a bubble there. In the rest of the country probably not.

The National Broadband Plan should make teleworking viable even in very remote areas (with plenty of existing stock) and the cost to the STATE of the NBP will only be around the price of 5k housing starts in the cities where they will cost €200k per unit. This demand management will work well in the rest of Ireland, IE move your job to where the broadband is and telework perhaps 2-3 days a week…this means a single desk in a Google or Facebook office can support 2 staff as one is out when the other is in…it neatly decouples job growth and housing demand in the ‘vicinity’ of the job. Targeted measures can be used to support this.

So while we need more starts we don’t need more holiday homes on the west coast…we need to use them better is all.

If we cannot get construction going in the GDA and get starts to 20k a year by end 2016 we are in trouble…our cost base in Dublin is already excoriatingly large. We also need to build a lot of studio apartments in Dublin to deal with homeless and low income singletons or divircees, probably 5k of those as an emergency measure alone. Not for refugees from Syria but for single or 2 person family homeless and constantly threatened with homelessness. The latter 5k units will have no effect on house prices but can be provided cheaper than long term habitable units costing €200k per , probably €100k each.

Course if we accept 20k Syrians I’ll rerun the math for yiz. They won’t be heading en masse to Waterford will they?? :slight_smile:

Overall we still have enough housing stock but we do need to build 30k units a year from now on and 20k of those near and in Dublin. If we build 20k units a year in the GDA from 2017 we will not have a bubble, not enough pressure anywhere else on housing stock save perhaps Cork and Galway cities.

These are all variables worth adding to ones consideration. No great shock is now on the horizon for Ireland as such…whatever about a global shock including Ireland as well as our trading partners.

Asking Price Inflation June 2014 to June 2015 Page 12 I watch the 3 Bed semi me…that’s where Irish households truly ‘form’ you see. :slight_smile:

1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced** 3 bed semi-d** 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached

Cork City €87 8.0% €104 14.1% €176 16.6% €303 8.6% €395 18.8%
Galway City €79 6.8% €94 12.9% €159 15.4% €273 7.5% €357 17.6%
Limerick City €58 0.8% €69 6.4% €116 8.8% €200 1.4% €261 10.9%
Waterford City €49 -0.8% €58 4.8% €98 7.1% €169 -0.2% €221 9.2%
Meath €78 16.3% €95 23.4% €141 27.8% €282 23.8% €322 29.0%
Kildare €85 11.9% €104 18.8% €155 23.0% €310 19.1% €354 24.2%
Wicklow €110 10.2% €134 16.9% €199 21.0% €399 17.3% €455 22.2%
Louth €67 9.2% €82 15.9% €122 20.0% €243 16.3% €278 21.2%
Longford €35 5.7% €43 12.2% €64 16.1% €127 12.5% €145 17.3%
Offaly €54 5.1% €66 11.6% €98 15.5% €196 11.9% €224 16.7%
Westmeath €54 7.8% €66 14.4% €99 18.4% €198 14.7% €226 19.6%
Laois €52 9.1% €64 15.8% €95 19.9% €190 16.2% €217 21.1%
Carlow €54 4.1% €66 10.5% €98 14.3% €197 10.8% €225 15.5%
Kilkenny €62 9.8% €75 16.6% €112 20.7% €224 16.9% €256 21.9%
Wexford €55 7.8% €68 14.4% €101 18.4% €202 14.7% €230 19.6%
Waterford Co €58 3.7% €71 11.1% €109 14.0% €221 15.8% €255 22.6%
Kerry €52 -4.7% €63 2.2% €96 4.8% €195 6.5% €225 12.7%
Cork Co €58 0.6% €70 7.8% €107 10.6% €217 12.4% €251 18.9%
Clare €49 1.2% €59 8.5% €90 11.3% €183 13.0% €212 19.6%
Limerick Co €46 -4.7% €56 2.2% €86 4.8% €175 6.5% €202 12.7%
Tipperary €49 -3.6% €59 3.4% €91 6.0% €184 7.7% €213 14.0%
Galway Co €50 3.7% €54 4.1% €82 12.5% €174 11.4% €206 13.7%
Mayo €47 0.0% €51 0.4% €77 8.5% €163 7.4% €193 9.7%
Roscommon €38 6.2% €41 6.6% €62 15.2% €131 14.1% €155 16.5%
Sligo €47 -0.2% €51 0.2% €78 8.3% €164 7.3% €194 9.5%
Leitrim €37 -0.4% €41 0.0% €62 8.0% €130 7.0% €153 9.3%
Donegal €45 2.9% €49 3.3% €74 11.7% €157 10.6% €185 12.9%
Cavan €42 8.4% €46 8.8% €70 17.5% €146 16.4% €173 18.9%
Monaghan €50 6.4% €55 6.8% €84 15.4% €176 14.3% €208 16.7%

and of course Dublin where the froth has come out of it a tad…no 20% asking price rise pattern on 3 bed semis here.

1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced** 3 bed semi-d** 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached

Dublin 1 €159 20.0% €251 24.7% €351 19.2% €505 13.9% €627 7.6%
Dublin 2 €264 9.9% €339 12.0% €467 4.7% €697 5.0% €842 6.6%
Dublin 3 €207 22.9% €290 20.5% €410 22.1% €654 15.5% €805 12.3%
Dublin 4 €303 7.4% €401 8.5% €589 10.8% €966 6.7% €1,191 10.1%
Dublin 5 €168 6.0% €216 12.4% €324 13.5% €511 11.4% €632 19.4%
Dublin 6 €294 -0.9% €379 5.1% €568 6.2% €896 4.2% €1,108 11.6%
Dublin 6W €228 2.0% €293 8.2% €439 9.3% €694 7.2% €857 14.9%
Dublin 7 €170 9.2% €219 15.8% €327 17.0% €517 14.8% €639 23.0%
Dublin 8 €175 9.9% €225 16.6% €337 17.8% €532 15.6% €657 23.8%
Dublin 9 €171 4.1% €220 10.4% €329 11.5% €520 9.4% €643 17.2%
Dublin 10 €105 13.4% €136 20.2% €203 21.5% €320 19.2% €396 27.7%
Dublin 11 €124 7.6% €160 14.2% €240 15.3% €378 13.2% €467 21.3%
Dublin 12 €145 5.1% €187 11.4% €280 12.6% €442 10.4% €545 18.3%
Dublin 13 €177 3.1% €228 9.3% €342 10.5% €539 8.4% €666 16.1%
Dublin 14 €220 0.6% €284 6.7% €425 7.8% €671 5.8% €829 13.4%
Dublin 15 €135 5.9% €175 12.4% €261 13.5% €412 11.4% €510 19.4%
Dublin 16 €203 2.7% €262 8.9% €392 10.0% €620 7.9% €766 15.7%
Dublin 17 €117 8.7% €151 15.3% €225 16.5% €356 14.3% €440 22.5%
Dublin 18 €228 3.0% €294 9.3% €439 10.4% €694 8.3% €857 16.1%
Dublin 20 €153 13.1% €198 19.9% €296 21.2% €468 18.9% €578 27.4%
Dublin 22 €109 5.1% €140 11.5% €210 12.7% €331 10.5% €409 18.4%
Dublin 24 €116 10.8% €149 17.6% €223 18.8% €353 16.5% €436 24.9%
North Co Dublin €138 5.8% €178 12.2% €266 13.4% €420 11.2% €518 19.2%
South Co Dublin €265 3.4% €341 9.6% €511 10.8% €807 8.7% €996 16.4%
West Dublin €137 6.4% €176 12.8% €264 14.0% €416 11.9% €514 19.9%

HTH :slight_smile:


#439

The current fad in the industry is shoving as many engineers as possible into as small a space as possible and them constantly talk over each other to facilitate “communication”. Remote working is only partially an infrastructure problem, it requires a big cultural change in a lot of businesses.


#440

I was thinking more sales and accounts who are required to communicate with customers…not engineers in a NOC scenario. :slight_smile:

By targeted measures I meant tax incentives to employers and employees …depending.