2Pack will call the bottom now!


#461

The Revenue statistical report has been discontinued. There is the same (and more) data here in machine-readable format.

cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/pssn/rv01/homepagefiles/rv01_statbank.asp


#462

Almost 5 years off the bottom now. Have the bears in this thread finally gone off to get that dose of Mange sorted??? :smiley:


#463

What does 2Pack call today? :slight_smile:


#464

Next thing to do is to call the top now!!!
I’m going for 2020 before we make sh1t of it all again!
8DD


#465

No dead cat bounce. I was wrong and it hurt me in the pocket. So hands up there.

But is it unheard of in a modern economy for a crash of such magnitude to reach a bottom and then take off again, without any bouncing around the lower limits for a year or two at least?


#466

Ireland is lovely ‘n’ small as a housing market. Perfect for distorting by the Gubbernment and VIs.


#467

The economics of q4 2011 suggested a strong rebound - but pinsters were to busy cheering on the crash to notice.

It will be at least another 3-4 years until we hit a peak.


#468

I put my money where my mouth was and bought nearly five years ago.


#469

Join the club of bottom feeders :slight_smile:


#470

Dublin prices will reach 2005 levels, IE the CSO index base of 100 in late 2017 to early 2018…and these levels can now be sustained long term in Dublin, with or without supply. If it goes much beyond that then it is a bubble, again, but supply should kick in hard at those prices and if not we are in trouble…again.

In the rest of the country most areas will not recover to 2005 values in this decade save Cork and Galway cities and maybe nearby (to 30km) commuter towns and the same in the GDA up to 50km out. These values to be reached by 2019.

In the case of Galway and Cork they will fall back off those values if supply comes on in 2019 (there is nothing in the pipeline in Galway City right now) Limerick and Ennis may also reach 2005 values by 2020. However all those markets will calm down rapid if a few 1000 houses are built and again I would think 2005 values are sustainable in those limited areas.

What has changed since 2005 is that rents ( and returns on investment ) are much higher Nationally than they were in the 00s as they were static in that decade even as house prices went utterly mental. This makes 2005 prices a feasible baseline scenario in future unless there is a collapse in rental prices but I actually don’t think that will happen unless Brexit dislocates a whole lot of our economy in 2019. Rents have undergone a step change now, to my mind anyway.

In the case of places like Longford, Tipp the Border from Monaghan West and North Connacht along with Kerry and south Leinster prices will never reach 2005 values IMO. Never as in ever ever ever at all at all.

By 2019 we should see something most unusual for younger buyers, interest rate rises. Not many of them though. I cannot see the Base Rate approaching 2% in this decade, maybe 1.5% and Euribor and wholesale money rates will maintain their spread over base as today. Positive interest rates will have no effect unless there is a sustained rise… 0.25%+ every 3 months has an effect over time if that happens and also affects sentiment if it seems to be baked in.


#471

Why is bank mortgage lending so low then? I.e. practically flat when repayments and redemtions are taken jnto account.

How can 2005 prices be sustained without wage inflation, making us uncompetative again, and with so little new credit in the system. These dynamics are also quite different to 2005.


#472

Transaction volume still trundling along below 2%.

And the only ways to get that volume up:

  1. Give buyers more purchasing power to afford the already expensive stock thus pushing prices up further.
  2. Prices fall to what more buyers can afford.

#473

Rental levels is the answer. Remember that most of the country (by area) will not reach 2005 levels and the population in the areas that will reach 2005 levels is growing steadily if not indeed strongly in some cases. These create competition for rentals and that underpins fundamental values.

Unlike the 00s rents are going up at least as fast as house prices and have been since 2012 or 2013. This trend is widespread not just a city hotspot thing.


#474

That’s some plateau. Almost as good as the national broadband plan. Still plenty of houses in North Galway for those syrians though


#475

Well they got FTTH in the next parish to me and I know three people who moved out of Dublin since christmas and back home once the FTTH was installed. One greedy fucker even got 1Gbit simply because ‘it was there’… and he lives alone.

I can get it this year according to the eircom website and if you believe eircom they will be approaching 15000 FTTH premises passed in Rural County Galway alone by end 2017 and that is apart from the National Broadband Plan which will do nothing for anyone until 2018 earliest. Men down the pub complain about AWS Disk I/O prices as much as they do about Sheep Prices nowadays. :slight_smile:

Eircom will keep going to around 25000-30000 rural premises in Galway thereafter and will finish sometime around 2020, or 2030 if they don’t get the Broadband Plan contract .

The structural shortage of housing stock in Galway requires 3-4000 units be built near the City or in the City but a housheen out in Connemara with 1Gbit fibre is a reasonable alternative for some. There are some of those already out near TG4 HQ. :smiley:


#476

Shit that Noonan has done intentionally since 2012 to fuck over the future generations - but hey, at least the banks are okay!

  1. CGT set to zero
    independent.ie/business/smal … 70936.html

  2. Section110s
    viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66282
    NAMA using Section 110s
    irishtimes.com/business/fina … -1.2959628

  3. Hiding the repossessions down the back of the sofa
    thejournal.ie/readme/michael … 5-Apr2014/

  4. Pressurising the Central Bank on mortgage lending rules
    rte.ie/news/business/2016/1 … -revealed/

  5. “Help-to-buy” in name only
    irishexaminer.com/breakingne … 55580.html

  6. Gotta keep feeding those hungry vultures:
    independent.ie/business/pers … 69286.html


#477

Future (starting already) generations will be absolutely robbed for rent, I am not entirely sure that Noonan planned that.

But if the rental sector is relatively much bigger (80% were ‘owners’ as recently as 2008 meaning the rental sector was small overall) then there are votes in sorting out long term rates starting with Alan Kelly in 2015 to my mind and continuing with Coveney.

Once the rental sector hits 40%, and we have census data incoming shortly on that trend from 2016 when that number was even a possibility, they are the swing votes in an election rather than a political irrelevance as they were 10 years ago.

And Noonan will retire at the next election anyway. We gave him all the power he needed in 2011.

tradingeconomics.com/ireland … rship-rate


#478

Cowen was a prick for saving the insolvent banks.
rte.ie/news/2015/0702/71208 … iry-cowen/
Lenihan was a langer for setting up NAMA and burying the bodies
irishtimes.com/news/politics … -1.2952819
Noonan is a bollix for his illegal promissory notes switch in the dead of night.
thejournal.ie/promissory-not … 9-Feb2013/

These guys not only threw the taxpayer in front of the bus - they then picked up the battered body and repeatedly did the same thing as each new bus came along.

As I posted previously, Noonan has had no hesitation since 2012, in once more retrieving the battered torso of the taxpayer and fucking it under the bus yet again, because, as he explicitly said, “We need to get property prices up another bit.”

So I’m pretty fucking sure that whenever the unsustainable rents bus ever comes barrelling down the road towards a politician, the taxpayer will be hauled up and readied for action, first and foremost!


#479

:smiley:


#480

Looking back, the bottom was 2011 I think. And things didn’t really pick up until 2014. Maybe 2013 you could argue. But there was a year or two of bouncing around at the bottom when you look back with the full benefit of hindsight.

I wouldn’t beat yourself up about not calling the top or bottom of the market cycle. That is virtually impossible to do and most people who do ‘call it’ are more likely to have been lucky that anything else.