2Pack will call the bottom now!


#561

Cost of Dublin luxury homes falls for first time since recovery

irishtimes.com/business/con … -1.3680682


#562

CSO Residential Property Price Index – Sep 2018 figures are out

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ember2018/

Dublin houses at

0.4% monthly change
2.0% quarterly change
3.9% change since Jan 2018
5.5% annual change


#563

True, but a friend made an offer on a house during the summer, and the EA came back and asked them to pay 10% under the table.
They refused to, but who knows how many would be happy to do so to close the deal.


#564

Dublin prices are still rising in other words, it does not matter that a limited set of scd homes are showing sogginess.

Nationally prices are rising quite strongly and in areas still in catchup mode, such as Limerick, house prices are rising by 20% p/a

Nationally prices rose 10% for houses and 15% for apartments. in the thin market from now to May there will be very little change (they might recover even) . The fun starts in summer next year when the April and May figures come out.

I will repeat my recent guidance.


#565

But why is there “Sogginess” in a certain set of SCD homes. The two houses I have in mind had pluses and minuses to each of them but Realised prices are clearly down YTD on my road.


#566

By much?


#567

4% approx. I’m not suggesting a crash. And each house had its pluses and minuses. But that’s not prices in Dublin are still rising, is it


#568

Its amazing how much one has to explain, serially, to slow learners in south dublin. Prices in Dublin are rising, thats official.

Whether houses are clearing at or above the deluded asking prices set by greedy self entitled cunts in south dublin is a different question entirely as is the possibility that peak delusion in south dublin peaked before the morkesh itself did.

I don’t think SCD is a canary this time, a bubble wrapped in an enigma and cold rolled in shite more like. That is an honest analysis FWIW. :smiley:


#569

These are actual sales prices not asking prices. Down YTD. But just on 2 houses.

What you seem to be saying is that delusional asking prices peaked in SCD a full year before your expected Q3 2019 realised prices peak. How likely is that lag ?


#570

You are assuming that scd is some kind of general leading a charge (or retreat), it is an isolate in national terms as only a fraction of the population live there.


#571

Exactly. Asking prices have been softening in SCD since the second quarter of the year, and the rest of Dublin may have been following recently, but who the hell knows how that matches up to achieved prices. I long ago gave up trying to match individual asking prices to sales as the data is too crappy to give a decent read, and asking prices have tended to dip in the last quarter most years anyway.


#572

How long back has that been happening ?
I think recently the banks lend out their ‘exemption’ mortgages within the first 6 months of the year.
This pushes up prices.
Then in the second half, they are limited to the standard 3.5x income, thus contracting the market.


#573

I failed in the last boom so I don’t assume anything. I accept affordability is still very much there in lots of the country. Perhaps you could buy something cheaper than you could build it in places still.

The delusions in SCD asking prices is a recurrent illness there. Is the “sogginess” in achieved prices there just a Q3 Q4 2018 thing or what does it signify ? For one thing it tells SCD people they’re not getting richer. Which is bad news for Leo’s election plans.

SCD’s woes don’t affect Longford, I know that. Longford prices are too low for that.


#574

Perhaps that assumption is untrue, but it’s more of a confidence indicator. SCD 1st up, and 1st down. High end London 1st up, 1st down.
It’s a method of looking at the edges to observe a trend. You could equally look at the lowest of the low end to try and figure out the state of the market.


#575

If I remember correctly from the bust, auction sales for SoCoDu property started failing in March 06. Of course in the pre PPR days they could spin the “withdrawn but sold for a higher price later” line and no one could contradict it.

It took two years before the last asking price rises were recorded in Kilkenny and Tipperary.


#576

I’ll hazard you are entirely correct but the then ‘essential’ Irish Times property supplement was able to gush and gloop over failures like that back in 2006. We had no hard information, like you say.

Nobody believes that comic any more. :slight_smile:


#577

irishtimes.com/life-and-sty … -1.3696481

Does anyone remember the new builds that were launched c. 2006-2008 that came with a “free” mini cooper? I can find no trace of it on the internet but I’ve a clear memory of it


#578

Was it this? Volvo, not Mini. Though maybe there were several of these.

Developer offers ‘free’ car with new home
April 4 2008
independent.ie/business/per … 35089.html

“A DEVELOPER is offering a free car to anyone who buys a house in a new west Dublin housing scheme in the latest attempt to revitalise the moribund property market.”

Well that worked out well.


#579

Thanks!
That could well have been it. In my memory it was a mini cooper.


#580

I remember apartments in Rathfarnham Village that came with a “free” A-class Merc.