2Pack will call the bottom now!


#581

Can we take it that the market has not peaked seeing as nobody is throwing in beemers yet, or is that rather an indication that we are well over the peak and that we could therefore not expect the beemers until 2020 or 2021??


#582

Nobody’s gonna fall for that Celtic Tiger bling again. It’ll be a free PCP down payment on a Nissan Leaf. “For the aspiring eco-conservative who enjoys luxury living with a conscience”.


#583

Well my barber told me yesterday it has already peaked :slight_smile: …this was based on direct experience of two family members with reasonably priced gaffes in nice areas not having one offer between them since they were listed over a month ago (these are less than 500k)


#584

Less than €500k where, Knocklyon??? That’s in Tallaghfornia not scd. :smiley:

Houses in ‘nice’ areas in Galway list from €300k up but normally you do not list in October if you are in any way serious about selling. We can infer nothing useful from activity between now and March.

As Mr A said a few times in this thread there are limited ‘exemptions’ from normal prudential affordability rules and a NEW annual quota kicks in on 01 January so then we could see a price spike in Q1 2019 from that system alone and that could even be skewed towards scd. A flood of exemption approvals in Q1 could skew that quarter up in what is a thin market generally.

As ever you should always listen to Mr Anderson and to his serial wisdom.

I do know a recently appointed hospital consultant who got a mortgage early this year. They had been out foreign for years and would have to be an ‘exemption’ candidate given their lack of a credit record here. These exemption quotas are like Alt A in the states (not ticking every box on a credit score).

Dude (and dudess wife) even got themselves a pair of nice 181 G wheels. Are they a risk to the system, why no! :smiley:


#585

Nope not Knockylon. I have no idea of the state of the places/amount of rooms etc but the areas cited are not at the lower end of desirability in South Dublin


#586

If you look on MyHome for properties under 500k you’ll find quite a few decent areas (Terenure, Goatstown, Milltown, Rathfarnham, etc). Remember that the median price of property sold in Dublin has been about 340k - 360k for most of this year. On the exemptions I’ve asked around and there are still exemptions available - some are tied to AIPs but most banks have a caveat that if the AIP has an exemption it has a shorter lifespan so inevitably some of these roll back into play if they are not taken up. I’m not convinced that exemptions have a huge effect on the market - as far as I can hear the banks spread them over the quarters based on numbers of sales in the previous years. This means that they can keep a customer who might move to another bank by suggesting that an exemption would be available in the next quarter - 12 weeks isn’t that long in the house buying game - and on average is 6 weeks at max - probably closer to 4/5 weeks.


#587

Reports from the trenches.

A friend of mine is a FTB in the market for a two-bed in the Grand Canal Dock area. She’s a very high earner, no kids, and is looking for something in the €400k-€450k bracket. She’s probably looking at an LTV of less than 50%.

She’s never actively looked at property til a few months ago and says the market is like a glacier. Open viewings where maybe one other person shows up, stuff sitting on the market for months at a time, EAs very happy to take calls. Looking at the PPR, she reckons a lot of unrealistic asking prices and sale prices probably down 5% from where they were at the very start of 2018. Some of this is seasonal, but she reckons investors are cashing out and none are coming in. Seven years have passed since the CGT exemption introduced in 2011, and gross yields are much more interesting elsewhere. The forthcoming Airbnb ban might also be having a dampening effect.

This is still all very anecdotal, but if the national market is going to plateau, or even dip, you would see it first at the very high end in Dublin.


#588

thats not the very high end though? we sold an apartment in blackrock 2years ago for well in excess of that.


#589

I think price per square metre in GCD can reasonably be described as ‘high end’.


#590

fair enough however i dont think you can call anything sub 500k as high end notwithstanding the per m prices, in absolute terms it isnt.

apartments on shelbourne road are high end and they are selling like hot cakes apparently


#591

CSO Residential Property Price Index – Oct 2018 figures are out

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … tober2018/

Dublin houses at

0.9% monthly change
2.8% quarterly change
5.7% change since Jan 2018
6.7% annual change


#592

I’ve just picked up on this. I don’t lurk on the forums much anymore.

2pack - re. Galway City and your prediction of June 2012, you hit the nail on the head (not just for houses, imo). We purchased purely for investment in Apr 2012. We were advised that the bottom was yet to hit, but that was the hit, as nothing I could see was bought cheaper than we did (given area, sq. ft).

We liquidated our last investment in Apr 2018 and were glad to get out. Not that we ever had bad tenants (NEVER had an issue with tenants), but we felt that given what we had, the market had peaked.

As I asked in the other thread, 2pack… when will we start to see reasonable value in Galway City again?! We’re waiting to find ourselves a home now.

-EDIT- Looking at the PPR, it was actually 2011 we bought, at a well-known auction held in Dublin. My sentiment still stands.


#593

rte.ie/news/business/2019/0 … ty-prices/


#594

CSO Residential Property Price Index – Nov 2018 figures

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ember2018/

Dublin houses at

-1.1% monthly change
0.3% quarterly change
3.8% change since Jan 2018
4.6% annual change


#595

20% of bank mortgages can breach the lending limits.
They use up these exemptions in the first 6 months of the year.

So prices go up in the first 6 months and fall back in the second half.

It’s a pattern that’s been happening for the past 3 years or so.
Was particularly evident last year though.


#596

There is a seasonal effect, but I don’t think it’s actually caused by the lending limits. It’s pretty clear in the quarterly rates of increase for the last six years since prices took off again, especially in the Dublin market. The CB lending limits were only introduced in 2015. Last year was a bit different – the spring/summer boost was at its lowest since 2013.


#597

The mood music is very different for 2019.


#598

True.


#599

What do posters mean by the mood is very different?


#600

Brexit, Trump, China starting to wobble seriously, populist eruptions all over Europe and a global economic cycle reaching its end soon with a cyclic recession.

Apart from all that the mood is good, if not great, and people still want to plan 25 years ahead in their new homes. :slight_smile: