Previous Covid Prevents Delta Infection Better Than Pfizer Shot
The data seems to be missing the one vital piece of information,
“how many cases are there where the person has already had COVID?”
And what does “already had covid mean”? Does it mean someone who was not necessarily symptomatic but has received a positive PCR test at some time in the past or does it only mean people who have recovered from an illness with a defined set of symptoms.
If it is the former criterion then considering the high false positive rate of PCR tests the vaccination would appear to be extremely counter productive.
If it is the latter then I’m surprised we haven’t heard a lot more about how the dangers of “catching covid twice” make vaccination even more necessary.
I was thinking mainly about people who have had either mild or no symptoms, whether they have previously tested positive or not. Not everyone has been tested.
It’s certain that many had COVID during the first wave without being tested, in the UK they now believe that over 90% of the population have COVID antibodies from either previous infection or vaccination.
It’s the perceived risk of “catching covid twice” that is not being highlighted, why?
I was just speculating about what the definition of ‘previous covid infection’ in the Israeli study in OW’s post above was.
Either an individual suffering multiple symptomatic cases is relatively common (i.e. 1/13th as common as infection after vaccination which appears to be very common) or vaccination is massively ineffective or even counter productive as the number of people with positive tests that are either false positives or true positives related to an asymptomatic infection must be a large proportion of ‘previous Covid infections’ if this status is determined by positive test alone.
The Daily Gaslight
Tee hee… like clock work, August is done, Time to ease in the idea of the 4th Lockdown end of 2021 as ADE takes out the population and other mayhem in the worx, pumped into the already spinning mass noodle.
Know the measure of the lies and kill agenda
Pausing or delaying reopening a possibility, says Health Minister
The Government will continue to monitor Ireland’s Covid-19 situation to decide if reopening needs to be paused or delayed, the Minister for Health has said.
Stephen Donnelly said there is no specific measure or statistic that would cause the Government to pause or reverse the easing of restrictions.
The Minister said he hopes there will be no return to lockdown – but acknowledged the next stage of the pandemic is unpredictable.
“There’s one thing we know about this virus though. It has torn up global plans many times,” he said.
“The two big concerns I have are the rates on the variant we’re dealing with right now and I’m particularly conscious of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland now.
“And secondly, a new variant and because of that it’s impossible to be 100 per cent certain.”
Transport not ‘about the science’
Mr Donnelly said the Government will be monitoring the data on outbreaks in schools and colleges, as well as the numbers of people admitted to hospital and in intensive care.
Looking at data “in the round” will allow the Government to decide whether reopening needs to be paused or delayed, he said.
Mr Donnelly said the return to full capacity public transport is not “about the science” and is not a “public health recommendation”.
He added: “It’s something that (Transport) Minister (Eamon) Ryan was very keen could be facilitated. We do want to get people moving around the country. The current restrictions had been putting a lot of pressure on public transport.”
We are aware of the risks, that’s why this is being done on a phased basis
Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe also told RTÉ radio that the advice the Government received from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) “did not cover” public transport.
He said the decision to return to full capacity is necessitated by the return of schools and the phased reopening of offices.
“We are aware of the risks, that’s why this is being done on a phased basis,” Mr Donohoe said.
A huge sense of positivity everywhere, which is good for mental health too. Everyone has made sacrifices to protect our health service. We appreciate it. Covid hasn’t been eliminated & if we can live our lives with caution, we can ensure society & the economy moves on. @HSELive
— Paul Reid (@paulreiddublin) September 1, 2021
The Government on Tuesday unveiled plans to ease the majority of remaining Covid-19 restrictions.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the sectors still closed due to the virus can “now begin to hope again” as he set out the roadmap agreed by the Cabinet to reopen society.
HSE chief Paul Reid tweeted on Wednesday morning: “Everyone has made sacrifices to protect our health service. We appreciate it. Covid hasn’t been eliminated and if we can live our lives with caution, we can ensure society and the economy moves on.”
Up to 5,000 new Covid-19 cases could be recorded per day this month under a “central” scenario modelled by Nphet as the country further reopens.
With a return to offices due to begin on a phased basis from September 20th, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said that workers will have little option but to return if an employer asks them to.
Nazi occupied Europe had Gauleiters in charge of districts. We have Gasleiters, or something.
Most notable a piece that has ZERO mention of the VACCINE!
Ireland’s Covid rate highest in EU as deaths hit five-month high
Dr Martin Daly, a former president of the Irish Medical Organisation, said the pandemic is far from over.
ISAG terror operative engaging 0% Science 100% Politics, as per usual gets a free pass in the captured-press disguised with a clipboard to lecture the children.
Tomas Ryan, Associate Professor at Trinity College Dublin and a member of the Independent Scientific Advocacy Group (ISAG), said health authorities need to examine why Ireland’s rate of the disease remains so high.
Yeeeaaaa it’s a real mystery…
“Our test, trace and isolation system was never fast enough to contain Covid-19 in Ireland on its own, we learnt that as early as July/August 2020,” he told Newstalk radio.
“We have amongst the most crowded schools in Europe, and that is going to be a problem this winter.”
Prof Ryan expressed concern that the Government’s reopening plan could see a repeat of a surge in disease seen at Christmastime.
“Remember that we had to have a five-month lockdown because we went ‘gung ho’ into the Christmas season last year for three weeks, so I’m concerned that we may be making some similar mistakes now,” he said.
“Hopefully the consequences won’t be quite as bad, so I think that people are better served with a more cautious, more stable reopening that doesn’t involve us going backwards.”
Interesting what Tomas seems to have forgot to mention.
Follow The Yellow Brick Road
- Note: Lab volume data grey/blue line, missing from 13th May 2021 since cyberattack!
- Graphic is purely for timeline and events overview a before and after.
- The grey mountain range is ECDC data of shots delivered into bodies.
- Death data is a mess not included
- Timeline ends August 2021
He’s a neuroscientist. Not a clinical one, a PhD only one. Seeing him given so much airtime and press to pontificate on public health management is totally nauseating.
Whats worse is that he just does very minor work in the biochemistry of memory formation. Not even the difficult bit of the biochemistry of high level memory formation and cognition. Jesus, I had more qualified people in that area working as part of product development teams. Its a real backwater with a bunch of small vicious head fish in a very small pond. So most people with real ability bail. Usually after the PhD.
So he knows less than nothing about the subjects he pontificates about.
He’s connected though. Right jobs, places, grants & co-authors.
When Stephen Pinker was in Dublin ?3 years ago to promote his book (Enlightenment Now) Ryan was the one giving his introduction & hosting him at TCD.
Meant nothing to me at the time, only clocked it since ISAG & all this propaganda started ramping up…
U.K. VoC briefing 22 is out.
I don’t find those figures in the Technical Briefing, so am I right that he himself has calculated these figures? And he speaks of CFR when it’s IFR in the image?
The numbers are mostly calculated using the first row of table 5 (ie total unvaxx = 219716, then subtracting deaths) of cases to emergency care & deaths, so yes CFR would seem more appropriate as there must be more community infections (both tested & untested) that aren’t captured, which should be accounted for in an IFR calculation?
COVID being so different among different demographics, the 50 cut-off might seem like a nice, round, mid-life number, but it’s not where risk rises sharply. A better cut point (IMO) would be 70, 75, 80 or even 85. The tweeters remark about the Simpson / Berkson issue was interesting, but while I know some stats that’s not an issue I’ve had to worry about or consider in my own (small-scale) stuff, so I don’t have experience of playing with the maths of it. I’m guessing @jmc does though
Thanks. Yeah could be misleading, purposeful or not and the Simpson, Berkson paradoxes not explored there. Ditto here - not a stats ‘expert’ - ah f**k maybe I am some sort of xpert.
Still, overall lower CFR in the unvaccinated, says the man, loud and clear.
Proportion of vaccinated is much greater in over 50 cohort and death is much less prevalent in under 50s.
Correlation does not imply causation and there could be other causes that are possible reasons for the large CFR differential.
If vaccination was a strong predictor of case fatality independent of age then that would be a meaningful statistic but vaccination rates in these data vary massively by age making it impossible to conclude anything about vaccination effect on CFR.
We also have no idea how along ago the fully vaccinated were vaccinated, and with which vaccine. Again, the maths on this is interesting.
However, one conclusion that can be drawn is that the vaccines are certainly not 100% effective against severe disease, hospitalisation & death as was originally claimed… even the manufacturers are saying efficacy is dropping, boosters are needed, and the Pfizer guy (ex-FDA) was talking about boosters every 6 months in a recent interview.
For younger age groups I still don’t think the (unknown) risk vs benefit is worth it, and the level of gaslighting and coercion is sinister.
Also the way they are playing with numbers and statistics.
Fish In A Barrell
A small insight into the testing, since the numbers have not been published since May 13th 2021 almost 4 months absent of clear data
The State’s Covid-19 testing programme will be “busy” in schools this month, a health official has said.
Niamh O’Beirne, the HSE national lead for testing and tracing, said on Sunday that the HSE “certainly expects schools to be busy from a testing perspective for the month of September”.
She said that the HSE was already referring schoolchildren for testing and tracking close contacts in schools since they re-opened.
“It is expected that there will be a degree of transmission in schools but the advice from public health has remained as before and all the measures are in place within the schools.”
She said that testing in the 0-14 age group was 40 per cent higher than other age cohorts, but had so far shown a lower positivity rate of around 10 per cent.
Ms O’Beirne, speaking several days after public transport returned to 100 per cent capacity, said that so far the data indicated that very few close contacts were being recorded from trains, buses and other forms of transport.
She said that Ireland’s testing capacity was not full and had “a little bit of space”.
The HSE is predicting that it will carry out between 18,000-20,000 tests on Monday – a figure close to the service’s capacity for community testing.
“It depends whether it is transient, and just lasts for a few days as the peak, or whether we see a consistent demand at that level,” Ms O’Beirne told RTE radio.
On Saturday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said Ireland should “take some heart” from early indications that rates of Covid-19 may be declining.
Ms O’Beirne said that trend was real, with referrals from the 15-24 age group declining.
The average for the last know previous 28 know days in May, indicate a 17.4K delay average of test with a min of 11K and max of around 20K.