50,000 young people in negative equity

as per Nick leeson in Thursdays indo.

Nick’s losses weren’t so bad afterall :wink:

(apologies if this is already covered)

not compared to the french lad anyways! do you have the article?

Only 50,000 you think?

90,000 new builds in 2006
70,000 new builds in 2007
??? new builds in 2008

(Question - if I bought off the plans in 2006, and my gaff is ready to move in to in 2008, is it included in the 2006 or 2008 new build figures? ie does the 90000 figure for 2006 represent number of starts, or number of completions?)

Plus anyone who bought a second hand house during that time.

And the market is still heading south.

What about those who bought off plans in the period 02-05 and waited untill 06-now for completion.They are hardly in negative equity.I know that many bought in Spencer dock off plans over 5 years ago and they are only completing now,far from being in negitive equity they are in positive equity.
So the likes of that would account for some of the 160,000 built in 06/07,but only a certain amount!

50,000 young people at say two to a dwelling - 25,000 units. I think we can safely say it’s an awful lot more than that…

50,000 young people
120,000 older people perhaps?

True. But remember a lot were bought by investors, and there’s a lot of unsold gaffs knocking around too.

I would reckon that at approx 30,000 units were sold to FTBs in 2006 and even if we say 20,000 in 2007, that’s 50,000 units, which at 2 per unit is 100,000 people and these are extremely rough figures and do not take account of 2005 (where we probably are in values at the moment).

Yep…

and there are about 10000 units for rental or to be bought coming on stream in the docklands in the next 12 months…

I live there and all I can say is it is incredible how much apartment space is STILL being built…

Not one of those spencer Dock apartments bought off the plans 5 years ago are rented out or lived in.

A savage indication of the Massive oversupply in effectively the city centre…

People who bought will not know whether they are in negative equity until they try and sell…

for those still unbelieving WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE!!!

perfect sh1tstorm is here.

Unbeliever…

Not just the docklands. Every single part of Dublin I frequent seems to have massive vacant apartment supply already and more coming onstream - D8, Parkwest, Finglas, and Sandyford. My prediction is for a one-third drop in rents in 2008.

That’s a ballsy prediction!

About 20% of Spencer Dock is now occupied,was down there yesterday.Purchasers have been closing since last June.Currently there are 4 one beds for rent on Daft quoting between €1450-€1550 p.m.A friend of mine bought a 1 bed off plans with parking for €290,000 5 yrs ago,put €10,000 down and its now worth over €400,000 but he has no intention of selling.An uplift of over €100k for €10,000 down and receive €1500pm in rent,its a no brainer!

I can confirm that. Took a walk down there at lunch the other day and it is shocking the amount of building that is going on. This is why I’m so bearish on places like Dundrum. the profile of an aprtment renter is someone young or a childless professional couple. Why would these people live in outlying areas when they can be in the thick of it by the docks?

Ehhhh. It’s only worth 400,000 if he can find a buyer at that price.
If he tried now I’d guess the best he could get for a 1 bed there is 300,000. In two years maybe 200,000.
Also rents there are going to hammered when all the building is finished. You are counting your chickens before they are hatched and there is a big snake in your nest gulping them down.

Not until he sells it…

a one bed for 400k…

it’s 2008

wake up and smell the coffee

1500pm

not for long

best of luck to him but… it’ll end in tears

oh and another thing, if someone had four hundred k to splurge on a one bed in the city centre

I’d probably buy one of these for 330K instead and spend the 70k on a nice motor…

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If he could get out now and pocket a 1000% gain on his initial investment, but he has no intention of selling - that is not a no brainer, that is someone with no brain.

Ah…

but then he would lose out on the next 1000%

why sell now the market is just bottoming out…
:unamused:

Lets not forget that if people want out of the bubble and they bought several years ago then they can afford to drop their price to
the price it was the year they bought it.

You bought in 2002 - you can sell it for that price and get away without negative equity.

The implications…prices can fall further than alot of people imagine at the moment

On the docklands thing. Lets not forget that a sizeable number of these were allocated as affordables to locals(grand canal dock for example).
That part explains some of the occupancy rates in the apt blocks. The DDDA have a clause which they enforce mostly to offer some apts to affordable purchasers and some to social housing.

And BJ hit the nail on the head with the overall picture, people will sell at a lower price than others because they bought much earlier as they will end up with a profit while their recent neighbour will be in negative equity hence the term ‘blame the neighbours for falling prices’ :laughing: