70 Ailesbury Road, Donnybrook (+22.7%)


#1

Was 1.875m
collapso.net/Sale-Property/p … ?id=634376

Now 2.3m
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -4/3380616


#2

70 Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Dublin (0.325 acres)

Just sold for 2.25m via DNG.

propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-18769CEF491F0E1C80257F78004CEFFC?OpenDocument
Date of Sale: 25/02/2016
Price: €2,250,000.00
Not Full Market Price: No
VAT Exclusive: No
Description of Property: Second-Hand Dwelling house /Apartment

Interesting that we now have the sale of 3 almost identical plots (all 0.315-0.330 acres) on a major D4 road - 62 Ailesbury Road (1.8m in 2012, 5.8m per acre), 56 Ailesbury Road (2.4m in 2013, 7.5 per acre) and 70 Ailesbury Road (2.25m in 2016, 6.9m per acre). 56 Ailesbury Road was the smallest house, while 62 Ailesbury Road house was semi-derelict.

  1. Shows how extreme the asking price is for the inferior neighboring 72 Ailesbury Road is of 2.95m (whose garden sides onto the neighboring apartment tower block - a big no no, per example of 91 Ailesbury Road across the road), which was actually reduced from 3.25m when launched in 2014 ? #72 is the weakest plot of the above 3 houses (they are all virtually identical sized one-third acre north facing plots and house construction types). sherryfitz.ie/residential/for-sale/35350
    72 Ailesbury Road:
    https://img1ie.trovit.ie/1b1T1g1p121F_11/1b1T1g1p121F_11.1_3.jpg

  2. The “mini peak” in the Dublin market was mid 2013 to mid 2014, when the identical plot of 56 Ailesbury Road (smaller house than #70, but in same tired condition internally), went for 2.4m at auction. #56 had planning but the buyer never used it, and re-applied for smaller. thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=18333&start=15
    56 Ailesbury Road (pre the renovation):
    https://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.1555201.1381331630!/image/image.jpg

  3. The “bottom” was 62 Ailesbury Road in late 2012 for 1.8m. Almost identical plot to #56 and #70 (0.315 vs. 0.325 acres), however the house of #62 was semi-gutted and could not be lived in (unlike #56 and #70), although it’s structure was in good condition (hence the buyer decided to keep the structure, unlike #56). thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20586&start=15
    62 Ailesbury Road (pre the renovation):
    https://www.google.ie/search?q=62+ailesbury+road&rlz=1C1VFKB_enIE648IE649&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3wr65x8zLAhXC-Q4KHWnIDh8Q_AUICCgC&biw=1366&bih=643#tbm=isch&q=62+ailesbury+road+sherry&imgrc=AckMu_O8s3tMtM%3A
    (NOTE - photo of #62 doesn’t work - google the image and it comes up first, #62 was identical to #72, #56 was different)

“Benchmark” house rows such as this well known row, are useful for making real comparisons on price movements.

I find them more useful than “CSO” statistics for high-end Dublin houses, which are contaminated by sales that are:
(1) not arms length and pumped for valuation purposes (i.e. Johnny Ronan’s 32 Burlington Road for 5.5m, or 25 Ailesbury Road for 3.5m), or
(2) really sites for much denser estates (i.e. Ard Na Glaise Blackrock for 3.6m), or
(3) really a commercial site, misplaced on the PPR (i.e. Abington Wood Malahide for 4.6m).

These “contaminated” sales are what some naughty Dublin agents slip into their “valuations” for embassy / corporate buyers when justifying certain “off-market” purchases. :angry:

The great “tell” of a benchmark row, is how hard it is to get photos and details of past deals, as they are taken down quickly from the agents web-sites once sold. There are few +2m houses in D4 that have so little details left as this row.

Other interesting 2016 benchmarks in prime D4 are:
(a) 57 Merrion Road (2.2m 2016) vs. 55 Merrion Road (2.3m in 2013) thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65783
(b) St Finbars Ailesbury Road (1.8m in 2016) vs. Santa Anna Ailesbury Road (1.8m in 2013) thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65785
© 11 Herbert Park (2.5m in 2016) vs. 3 Herbert Park (2.6m in 2012) thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=870787#p870787

Not a story you will read in the Irish “bubble” property media I’m sure (Irish Times and Irish Independent). They are more focused on the embassy / corporate buyers who “snap up” over-inflated “bargains” that their local sell-side adviser feed them.

See following link for further analysis on Dublin high-end residential prices in 2012 vs. 2013 vs. 2014. vs. 2015
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65796


#3

Now for rent for €3,500 per month - therefore buyer was almost certainly Irish expat, as has been the case with many (or most) of the recent Ailesbury sales.
daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-re … n-1635742/


#4

Is imagine that the current weak gbp will not help that end of the market


#5

I think that weak sterling and falling London property market is a factor (hence the slowdown in high-end Dublin).

Hard to overstate the influence of Irish ex. pats / overseas buyers on high-end Dublin property.

It is why:

  1. we see no foreclosures by Irish banks on high-end Dublin property (all have been non-Irish banks). as you can see from above, even a slight slowdown in demand and the pricing drops. irish banks are already drowning in Dublin high-end mortgages in default (reason why they don’t want to give +1m mortgages any more) and are terrified of overwhelming the market with foreclosures.

  2. Dublin high-end with issues, which don’t attract non-domestic high-end bidders, suffer large price drops

Examples being:

  1. quality properties / sites on best roads can sometimes get surprisingly strong prices, but in most cases, an overseas (ex. pat or other), has paid a premium above the domestic price (51 Ailesbury will be a case in point, but we have had others on this road, that would not sell for same today without another overseas buyer, and a lot of patience to wait for them, to take them out). we already have had a few notable examples since 2012 alone of overseas buyers exiting, and despite buying in the GFC, getting a shock on offers. buyers who have lived in London, which is a much larger, deeper and more liquid market, where mad askings only happen at much higher prices (and up until 2014, we often achieved), don’t realise that there are often “two prices” in high-end Dublin - one for the overseas bidder, and the other for the domestic bidder (and the gap is material). if London property starts to really turn down (as it very likely will, given its insane price levels), this will have a material effect on Dublin high-end pricing.

#6

72 Ailesbury Road now miraculously sale agreed. There are quite a few big money houses that have now sale agreed recently that I am surprised at… only time (and the register) will tell how mad the buyers are!


#7

Buyer wasn’t an expat, probably had the house for rent while preparing planning application:

Not overly extravagant (i.e. he isn’t knocking it) but still not half bad for a 26 year old running a self-described not-yet profitable clothes shop.

I can’t see any news articles about his father/Ellier Developments having been NAMA’d so I guess it shouldn’t come as much surprise that they have cash to splash.


#8

Father is not NAMA’ed on any material / personal level (although might have some interests that ended up in NAMA).

(although, if the magnificent Lota on Coliemore Road comes up for sale, I might be proven wrong).

Good deal for the son at a price that was consistent with early 2013 pricing.

Shows what happens in the upper-end, when the ex-pats don’t arrive !

(perhaps, the imminent defeat of BREXIT, will address this).


#9

Back on market after makeover, 89% price increase, in my opinion an rather ugly job and surely a design that is too love it or hate it to draw a large number of premium buyers…

myhome.ie/residential/broch … -4/3865370