8th Amendment poll predictions


#18

Age correlations dominate.


#19

Polls seem to be quite a bit off these days! Is how they are done skewing results? i.e are they done by landline phone that disproportionately captures older people or some such reason(s)??
Quite large generation gaps in those numbers posted above. Those in their 60s and older grew up in a totally different country in so many ways (and even those alot younger have too).
Its probably going to be the same for us in ways


#20

looking at the age brackets: can only get 87%, 83% and 74% shares with some serious mental conditioning


#21

My most optimistic was 60/40.
Even as someone whose been rabidly yes for years, I’m astounded.
I was worried it’d pass in a Dublin vs the rest of the country, scraping through outcome.
This is better then I ever hoped.


#22

Good point, highest No vote is 65+ age group who grew up having the fear of god beaten into them both figuratively and literally, mentally conditioned to do what the church told them and to fear free will because god is watching and judging and will cast you down to hell.

Thankfully it seems this blanket of fear and shame has been lifted from the younger generations and self determination flourishes.


#23

Yep. The North Korean lad mightnt be too disappointed with such tallies.

Some may consider this sour grapes on my part but I’d suspect that tallies such as those mentioned above (if true) would suggest that Ireland has simply replaced one monoculture with another.


#24

No, I suspect sour grapes… :wink:

I think you’re right, though, the extreme No (banners of aborted foetuses on roundabouts anyone?) damaged the wavering “no” vote more than it converted the wavering “yes”.


#25

Yes. Plus the fact that Iona were leading the No side is a turnoff for most people these days.


#26

Apparently the Donegal result is delayed due to a jam in their fax machine, so they can’t contact Dublin Castle officially


#27

For me, one of the biggest turnoffs for waverings was the Prime Time debate. Whatever happened behind the scenes, the net result was that the most important debate for undecideds was between Simon Harris and Peadar Tóibín. That was horrendous optics even before either of them had uttered a word.


#28

Well if you were a no voter under 25 you had to keep your head down.
The real stigma if you are under 18/21 or even 25 is not having an abortion but having a baby.
We have always had a strong herd mentality. I suspect it has something to do with the education system.
The older generations had there own more overt conditioning.


#29

Social Media effect?


#30

A lot of the conditioning pre-dates social media. I remember what it was like 25 years ago, being pro-life was not a popular opinion. ot to be insulting here : the attitude was that “only the ‘holy joes’ were pro-life”.

As werpen has pointed out "The real stigma if you are under 18/21 or even 25 is not having an abortion but having a baby. "
I remember the phrases “your life will be ruined if you have a kid”, and by my observation you wont find many pregnant women on university campuses. Its re-markedly easy to get people to convince themselves to terminate their pregnancies.


#31

Well I was massively wrong I’m glad to say - probably thanks to a younger generation who took this seriously and got their vote out (on both sides). Now - won’t some of you stand for office and push the current lot out at the next election?


#32

Dinosaur logic in the constitution finally meeting its comet?
The young smarter than the rest and able to make up their own minds?


#33

I am so glad to be proven so very wrong :smiley:


#34

It clearly shows the generation gap. The older generation grew up in an oppressive atmosphere. Almost like brainwashing.
The 8th amendment aside this also shows a glimpse into the future. The younger generation on social media are now susceptible to group think and crushing dissenting views online. There is a difference between anonymous forums and facebook where the individual is identifiable.


#35

There is a serious amount of denial here as to what just happened.

The only, only demographic to vote to retain the 8th was over 65’s.

Men, women young and older <65 yrs, urban & rural voted not slightly but overwhelmingly in a landslide to repeal the 8th. In Dublin the lowest vote Yes was over 73%.

“Brainwashing” “younger generation susceptible to group think” !! give me a break. The only Brainwashed generation subject to groupthink was the over 65 demographic who are so brainwashed by the church they couldn’t empathise with their neighbour in a crisis.


#36

I’ve been thinking about shy YES vote, which seems to have been way stronger than the anticipated shy NO vote.

If there was a large shy YES vote, who exactly were they shy of?

My best guess is the church.


#37

The brainwashing comment was about the older generations. You just made my point! Take a step back, i`m not arguing about the 8th or anything, just making an observation. Think about how future voting could play out.