A question of motivation

I’m only a recent poster on this forum but I have been lurking for a while. I was initially interested in reading because in many cases there are some interesting posts that challanged my own views and gave me a sense of perspective. Recently I only started posting because it began to frustrate me beyond belief how many people would actually appear to welcome a property crash. Almost an “I told you so” feeling.

The question I have is would the majority of posters actually welcome a crash in the housing market or would they prefer a slower more manageable return to affordability?

A few recent posts I’ve read would bear out my theory that a lot of people actually want and may take pleasure in a complete failure of the property market, i.e. posts criticising people who promote a sense of calm in what I am sure is an effort to try and manage a potentially bad situation (e.g. John Hurley in todays IT) or posts promoting the idea of somehow advertising our impending doom through newspaper adverts, etc.

Personally, a market crash would probably (in many ways) suit me but I would prefer if Ireland didn’t suffer an economic disaster and we had an easier transition back to affordability - but then maybe that’s just crazy thought? :unamused:

Do you know I would say that if you said that to a VI in a conversaton they would agree with you whole heartedly and then put property prices back up to 2006 levels stating thats were they should be and we can all rent flats forevermore amen (or shackle yourself to a life of servitude to the banks). :angry:

For someone who wants to buy but refuses to do so when prices are way off sustainable levels I want a quick deep drop. I will not buy until they get to sustainable levels. Anybody who wants to buy must think the same way. A quick deep drop is not in the interest of LLs. Everybody else EAs included need a quick one.

Ireland’s competitiveness has been eroded through costs mainly inflated by the property bubble. If this bubble doesn’t reverse quickly with a return to sustainable fundamental based development, then we will indeed suffer an economic disaster.

I welcome a crash - a quick one. It’s absolutely the best option for it to be short and sharp, for everyone concerned.

What we’ve had for the last (6 years certainly) is completely unsustainable, and that’s why it must return to Normal. There can be no easy transition back to affordability - SLOW = more pain …

Get it out of the system fast, so that we can concentrate on the productive sectors of the economy. Property has sucked capital away into a speculative bubble, let it burst and move on.

For me its a case of how long it lasts. A sharp but short correction is INFINITELY preferable to a long drawn out Japanese style one that takes 10 years to reach the same conclusion, thats too long a period of pain, it wrecks peoples heads .

The primary reason for the long drawn out bit Japanese one was that Government and Banks and misc VIs all kept trying to talk the market up all the way through it so that BY the time they were actually RIGHT ( say by 1998-2000) nobody believed them anymore.

The sizeable downturn is inevitable, its the managing thereof and the managing of the consequences thereof that is a variable.

A quick steep drop is better for the economy and employment levels
a long drawn out land hoarding affair will mean more job losses in the construction industry and resulting knock on effects on the economy
2pack beat me to it

the developers will stop building - cutting output hoping to sell what they have already built at as high a price as they can
some can afford to hold out for a long time
some will go under fast

but the average electrician or block layer will be the ones who suffer the most

High house costs alongside associated inflation and wage demands have hurt our economy massively. More so, in my opinion, than a quick sharp cut in house prices.

What’s a VI?

FWIW, I do think prices need to come down but I think it needs to be manageable for the people who are currently in the market. Yes, some will lose because they will be in negative equity but at least a slow consistent fall won’t cause mass panic and destruction of an entire segment of our economy. Not that I really believe it will happen - I’m just amazed that some seem to take pleasure in pushing this idea and inevitable.

IMHO, ideally we need the prices to drop (not too far) and then very slowly rise as should be normal for property over time (i.e. 10, 20, 30 years as opposed to months).

I’m just amazed when I hear people complain about the high cost of living in Ireland (not just property) yet we travel more than ever before, we have more cars on the road than ever before, we have more luxury items than ever before and we people spend more money socialising (meals out, drinking, etc) than ever before.

The REAL disaster was when such a high proportion of our productive capacity was diverted into building 350,000 empty homes , some of which will never be lived in. That diversion of resources is over but the redeployment of resources ( eg Plasterers) has not begun in earnest . A " VI " is explained in the glossary above this thread.

Whether some people on here would or would not welcome a crash, the Pin has a “no glee” policy irrespective of what the outcome is. Some people will still get over-excited at times, but the Pin as an entity is neutral.

See there’s the problem. There are lots of people in the media trying to “manage” the message, so where does Joe Public turn to find out what is really happening? What we call the VIs have almost exclusive access to the media, so if you listened to them you’d think all is well. We’re all adults on here, I’d prefer to be told the truth and make up my own mind. It’s naturally going to be a more bearish place than the media because those with access to the media invariably have a vested interest in the property market,

Its exactly what IS happening and the most likely outcome
A short sharp correction isnt likely I dont think

VI= vested interest.

And where are people delighting and pushing the idea ?

I can’t put my finger on it tbh - it’s just the feeling I get reading some posts.

One thing I will say, for great discussion this place takes some beating. And to be fair it certainly gives me personally a whole new perspective even if I don’t reall agree with what a lot of people say.

Even this thread - there is some really good constructive arguement - I don’t agree with some of it, mostly on how a sharp decline is the optimum way forward, but it’s great reading

Oh no, thought crimes!
Repent ye pinsters for ye have foresight.

I’m getting a bit uneasy about this accusation of treachery from the cheerleading ra ra mob. There is an abundance of reassuring VI propaganda for ‘Patriots’ to swaddle in so why upset yourself by subjecting your fragile sensibilities to the only bit of bullshit free advice available to people with a few doubts.
Anyone remember ‘The Bodysnatchers’

… and more debt than ever before!

Is this supposed to be a list of positives, because I for one would like to see more affordable holidaying in Ireland than ever before, more public transport and less traffic jams than ever before, and most importantly cheaper beer than ever before! :smiley:

You are correct, some around here will 'wish ’ for a correction so that they can profit from it . Most see it as inevitable and overdue . Life and aliving through a few economic cycles has taught some of us that , others have simply not lived as long :slight_smile:

*Every Bubble Bursts *

Its just that this one went on longer than it should have …certainly past this time in 2004 . We could possibly have plateaued there and held the nominal values.

You are not supposed to . You are supposed to acquire the analytic vocabulary and tools to make your own mind up and argue your own case. Thats what individual choice really means .

Read about the Lost Decade in Japan . Thats the alternative to a short sharp correction to my mind.

Does this bit sound in the least familiar 8)

Going Japanese is bad, trust me .

“Anyone remember ‘The Bodysnatchers’”

The 80’s band signed to the 2 Tone label, sung Do Rocksteady and Too Experienced?

I do, great band, but I think that we are in the wrong forum.

Soc I think that some people have felt very strongly for a long time that the property market has been way over valued. This has been as popular a view as eating a bacon sandwich in a mosque in the irish situation.

Those who proclaimed that the emporer had no clothes and that this price inflation was a bad thing throughout the bubble can be forgiven a little for some satisfaction that we were not actually mentally unstable and that the emporer was actually Stark Bollock Naked.

However this is fast being tempered by the realisation of the damage being caused.

Rather than blaming and questioning the motives of people who were priced out of the Market and refused to buy and now are saying We told you so

… people should be questioning those who continue to deny the bleedin obvious.

However neither thing will have any effect on the actual market where the fundamentals are no sow blindingly obviously terrible.

It’s already been said, but I’ll say it again:

The ugly truth is that we’ve had about 6 years of massive mal-investment in property. This has had extremely negative effects on the entire economy - real productive industry has been starved of investment because all the money was going to property alone, and the soaring prices have had huge knock-on effects on inflation and the eroding of our competitive position. Ireland is a small trading economy, we have to make our money from international trade, there is no other option. Continuing to imagine we can get rich through selling houses to one another will, in reality, utterly destroy our economy for generations to come. We need to completely rebalance the economy and get back to productive wealth-creation, it’s the only long-term hope. A sharp correction is much preferable to a long-drawn-out affair, it forces us to get our act together and start trading and creating real sustainable wealth again.

Sure it’ll hurt, bursting bubbles always hurt. But again, the ugly truth is that drawing this out over years and years will hurt much much more.

Nobody wants a Japan situation. None of us want Ireland to still be in recession and dealing with a housing hangover in 15 years time. Pinsters want Ireland in 15 years to be a wealthy, productive, trading nation creating real sustainable wealth in real wealth-generating globally-traded goods and services. That situation can only come about if we flush the junk of the property bubble out of the system quickly, take the pain quickly, and move on.

Dragging things out, as the VIs want to do, will condemn Ireland to recession and poverty for another 15-20 years. Pain from the bursting bubble in inevitable, there is nothing that can be done to stop that pain happening. Better to take the hit on the chin quickly and recover, than for Ireland to end up with a chronic debilitating illness for a decade or more.

So, who are the real patriots?

Bollocks. Who was saying that when prices were going up rampantly for 10 years for the people who weren’t in the market?

All I heard was gloating and ‘you’d better buy that shitty little apartment in the middle of nowhere this year, because you won’t even be able to afford that next year’.

The whole thing was a national mental illness. Try to persuade a foreigner to buy a house in Ireland as an investment today. They would laugh out loud into your face. But yet half the country is still intent on perpetuating this nonsense.

Sorry soc, but it’s far too late for that now. Prices don’t go up by 400% and then come down by 10%, and then everything’s hunky dorey again (unless incomes have gone up massively too, which they haven’t).

The reason the IMF reported that Irish house prices are at least 30% overvalued is because they are. That 30% overvaluation is an anchor weight around the neck of our economy which drags down our international competitiveness, drives excessive wage demands, and pours a huge proportion of our after tax incomes every month into a hole in the ground, when it could be being spent on something productive.

Mortgage interest is dead money too you know…

If there’s one thing history teaches us it’s that every single bubble market has eventually reverted to it’s pre-bubble levels. That 30% overvaluation in house prices has to come out, and it will come out. The only question is how long it will take.

I would disagree with the IMF on the extent of the overvaluation, personally I think a lot of stuff is closer to 50% overvalued.