As a first time poster I am seeking some views from a few established pinsters. I am a potential first time buyer ( i know , i know, please hear me out before calling me a lunatic) who for some time has been looking for a two or three bedroomed terraced redbrick property in Drumcondra, Phibsbora, Glasnevin , possibly Clontarf areas of Dublin.
While it is obvious to everyone that prices are falling, these falls in my view are not uniform across the city. The hardest hit being outlying areas around the M50, commuter belt, apartments in the suburbs and high end houses in posh suburbs, D4, D6 etc
In the areas that I have been looking(see above) price falls have been marginal if at all. Even though I still believe that these houses are overvalued i am beginning to lose faith that significant cuts will occur in these properties. There still appears to be a constant demand for such redbricks given their proximity to the city centre.
Should I take the plunge now and obviously haggle for a discount from the asking price or wait 6-12 months, All viewpoints would be greatly appreciated,
If you can rent the house you want for less than the interest you’d be paying on the mortgage. Don’t buy.
End of Story.
-Rd
What’s the rental yield of these properties typically? i.e. rents as a percentage of cost price?
I’ve been trying to figure out the price stickiness in certain areas and house types (without spending too long trying to back this up with things like figures and statistics!) and thought that perhaps people that are in mid-sized family homes (lets say 4 beds for arguments sake) in decent areas have just stepped back from the market. They’ve probably already traded-up and aren’t willing to less for “less than its worth” so will sit tight, I dont see where the pressure to sell will come from??
The number of properties for sale on daftwatch in Dublin (c6k) relative to the rest of the country (c66k) is totally disproportionate to the population spread, roughly one tenth of the stock for half the population. (Granted lack of accurate information prevents anything but hypothesis.)
But I wouldn’t have thought this would apply to 2 beds, and that prices of 2 beds will have to come under pressure as apartment prices fall. The redbricks and apartments may not be beside each other or directly comparable, but picture a 2 bed terrace house, and a 2 bed apartment at half the price, would you consider it StillWatching?
This red brick in Clontarf is available to rent or buy -
€2,800pm to rent
€6300 pm to own (assuming 100% mortgage, APR 5.3%, 35 years)
Mortgage repayments of €2800 pm, would cover a €565k mortgage (assuming 100% mortgage, APR 5.3%, 35 years)
Its larger than the OPs request, but illustrates the gap in rents and asking prices.
Hi there,
I feel there are a lot of step stimuli which could come into effect soon. I don’t see the point of holding off this long and giving up now. The tightening conditions, change in consumer attitude / employment figures and the non existant spring selling season coming into the open.
Even if you do want to go down the road of haggling, why not hold off for 6 months, there should be a lot more people sitting on their properties then who see no light at the end of the tunnel. Pick 5 or 6 that you like and start the bidding very low.
What do you lose? A few months rent for the opportunity to get a decent priced home.
Best of luck with it whatever you decide.
While there is ,frankly , no possibility whatsoever of an upturn in the next year it would be necessary to have access to minimum €80k cash , minimum , to enter the market in these areas in a years time.
If the OP cannot manage that somehow then the whole idea is a pipedream. I am assuming 80% mortgage on a €400k house is an entry level in a years time .
Nevertheless these are good areas and will hold out longer than marginal areas will.
A further factor is that they are also areas where speculators typically bought 20+ years ago for £15-30k and have long since paid off the mortgage meaning they are under no pressure to sell .
Thats not the situation in the outer commuter belt where many mortgages are recent ( and large ) and negative equity a hairsbreadth away or here already for many but the NE situation out there will militate against mobility for many potential competitors for these properties .
Maybe consider further out and non redbrick areas like Santry or Artane which are fine areas .
I’d agree with that. The fact that the OP can consider well-built houses in good areas close to the city centre, rather than commuter areas on the fringe of Dublin, shows that some progress has been made. However, it seems that we have much further to go. My only concern would be 2Pack’s point - the OP will need a substantial deposit to get a mortgage, even taking into account future price drops.
values crumble…
OP
I would suggest property purchases and sales are like earthquakes.
Each one has a strong impact at the epicenter that diminishes with distance .
Or
Just as high corn prices have forced up wheat prices, a 3 bed semi in west Dublin will effect 5 bed detached in Clontarf.
(more land used to grow corn means less for wheat so even with flat demand prices go up.)
Forgive my long post. But since you asked 
OK, so say the best price you can get today for the house you want is €350,000. You believe it will be 10% cheaper in 2 years time but you don’t care. You want to “own” now. You have 10% downpayment and can borrow at 5.5% over 30yrs. [Let’s assume you don’t pay stamp duty and mortgage interest relief covers insurance, maintenance etc.]
Scenario A: Buy now
Your first mortgage payment of €1,800 is made up of €1,450 interest and €350 principal re-payment.
After 5yrs you’ve paid out a grand total of €142,000 for your little piece of heaven on earth (€35,000 downpayment, €107,000 mortgage payments). You owe €291,000 on the mortgage, and the house is worth €315,000.
Scenario B: Rent same place for 2yrs then buy it
Rent is €1,400/mth. It’s Spring 2010 and you buy; the mortgage is €1,600/mth on the 10% cheaper house. First payment is €1,300 interest and €300 principal re-payment.
After 5yrs you’ve paid out €123,100 to keep an equivalent roof over your head (€31,500 downpayment, €33,600 rent, €58,000 mortgage). You owe €271,000 on the mortgage, and house is worth €315,000.
You’ve paid out less, you owe less
Which situation would you rather be in?
I have deliberately chosen to be VERY conservative here; IMHO long term rates are going higher than 5.5%; nominally, prices are going to fall by much more than 10% more like 25% further by 2010; you can rent for cheaper; I haven’t counted earnings on the saved downpayment money; I haven’t factored in higher stamp duty if you must pay; I haven’t factored in further price falls after 2010; I havent mentioned the advantage of having more equity built up in the asset or needing more than 10% down, etc etc.
But I needn’t exaggerate. The point is clear: waiting for a small period, for even minor falls prices while availing of todays low rents leaves you well ahead. Try crunching the above numbers with more aggressive assumptions under scenario B, say 15% fall in prices, or 20% or… You’ll see why many buyers 2002-2006 are about to get very very angry.
But nobody should expect 100% mortgages either even if homes are cheaper.
Therefore in addition to the entirely correct calculations in the previous post it is now imperative that you acquire a demonstrable saving habit .
Save a good wedge each month over the next two years. It will be expected by sort of banks that are still lending at that time. Try to get a good regular savings deal from maybe 2 mortgage banks ( AIB ‘online savings account’ and NIB ECB+1 would be two sample accounts ) , Rabo does not do mortgages). Chuck €200 min into each every month.
Longer term mortage rates over the next 20 years will typically be 6-7% even on a tracker and the GENEROUS Interest Relief for the FTB is during the first 7 or 8 years only so don’t buy in December either …drag it out till Jan the 2nd !!!
A lot depends on your own financial situation and how much (if anything) you have saved as a deposit. You say you don’t think there’ll be significant price cuts on this type of property - true some properties will hold their values better than others - but you’ve got to consider the number of people who with the withdrawal of 100% mortgages and other changes in the lending market will no longer be able to bid on properties like this at all.
With fewer bidders the prices of all properties will have to come down - albiet slowly and over a number of years.
Don’t really get the corn/wheat simile but its true that 1 bed apartments in Balbriggan and Mulhudard going for c.170k affect the basis of prices for million plus houses in Blackrock and vice versa. Islands resisting serious drops will be temporary
Frankly , this map below shows where the serious problems will occur in the next 2 years .
Interesting viewing, so glad I dumped my place in Balbriggan early last year, hate to be trying to offload it now 
Look at the size of those commuter belts!
Yet another PIN poster proving my point - the demand out there is still phenomenal…lots of cash too.
There won’t be a crash in houses in Ireland!!
No doubt you will roll out your 200% of the Population Want to Buy Tomorrow line for us there Crashandburn , eh ! 
StillWatchingandWaiting is merely expressing a higher time preference than a lot of the contributors here.
If the demand for housing is so phenomenal, how do you explain the following:
- inventory for sale continues to build
- construction output continues to fall
- banks continue to tighten lending standards
- banks raise the cost of money
- unemployment is rising
- emigration from Ireland is increasing
- house prices continue to fall
- The cost of home ownership continues to increase
If you have an hour and a half to spare, checkout this video on Money and Prices