Interesting snippets about US involvement
Kabul is now apparently in Fall of Saigon 2 mode, with a US media blackout in place.
Edit: with a hint of the Iranian revolution
Theres a segment of Afghans who have aligned themselves with occupying forces, mainly urban, educated, of a more progressive outlook, mostly in Kabul. Such people must be very very worried at the minute. Hopefully they won’t be abandoned to their fate.
Indeed, it’s people like those that should be afforded international protection by Ireland and other European countries, rather than the bog standard Nigerian or Albanian and other con artists who have been the main beneficiaries over the past decade.
This is a reasonably good summary of how the Democrat controlled Congress cut of the money to South Vietnam which directly led to the debacle of 1975 when the South Vietnam Army collapsed. And the deaths of at least 300K people killed by the North Vietnamese in the next decade.
This is pretty much the story I heard from people who where there at the time.
The one interesting name in the article is Senator Church. The Church Commission was responsible for the law that was directly responsible for the 9/11 Attack intelligence failure. It had been vetoed by all Presidents since Ford as a danger to national security but Clinton did not veto it and 8 years later…
If Clinton had not signed that Church era law there would have been no 9/11.
Church is one of the people like Nye in the 1930’s who engaged in a form of political rabble rousing that lead to laws that were directly responsible for immense death and suffering. In Nye’s case the Neutrality Acts. Which convinced Hitler the US would never fight and were a key part of his calculations to start a war.
So now many hundreds of thousands are going to die now in Afghanistan. And the many millions of refuges who returned after 2002 will end up fleeing again. Obama fucked up Iraq and Syria. Killing over half a million. Biden should easily top this with Afghanistan.
And as for Europe taking them in . They are the wrong type of refugees. The EU refugee commission only likes jihaids. The story of those “refugees” in Germany who went to fight for ISIS and then returned to Germany is quite enlightening.
China Preparing to Recognize Taliban if Kabul Falls: Sources
The move comes at the expense of the U.S., which has held up the Taliban’s international legitimacy as its remaining source of leverage while the militant group storms across Afghanistan.
By Paul D. Shinkman Aug. 12, 2021
“Taliban not only seized US humvees and (MaxxPro) MRAPs at Kunduz airport, but also several US ScanEagle drones.” – via https://twitter.com/beingrealmac
VIDEO from inside Pul-e-Charkhi prison, Kabul following tonight’s riots. Clearly the prisoners are connected with the outside world and are expecting TB to break them out soon. They were so confident that they packed up & tried to overthrow prison guards
I will be posting videos and events from Afghanistan as I find them, similar to my SA thread. This thread will be continually updated.
HERE: The Taliban broke open the central prison in paktika capital and released their comrades
Kabul may not last the night at this rate. They’ve lost power, Taliban are inside the city in places and the President is nowhere to be seen. This is worse than any assessment envisaged. Afghan Forces have disintegrated.
BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports of the U.S. Air Force striking several Taliban convoys on the outskirts of Kabul.
Today the Taliban control more territory in #Afghanistan than they had before the US invasion in 2001. The first provincial capital fell only 8 days ago on Aug 6th and now Kabul is being reported as the only major city still resisting the onslaught.
#BREAKING: Al-Arabiya sources: The Taliban are approaching Kabul from its northern, southern and western axes
B-52 with tanker support left the Persian gulf about 2 hours ago, matches up somewhat with the timeline of new air strikes.
En route to Afghanistan
Kabul Afganistán now
“Britain’s ambassador is to be airlifted from Afghanistan by Sunday evening amid fears that the Taliban could imminently take Kabul and seize the airport”.
UK envoy to Afghanistan to be airlifted before Taliban’s arrival
Foreign Office previously intended for Sir Laurie Bristow to remain in Kabul airport along with a small team of officials
Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostom’s house
Kabul under attack taliban overrun number of building inside city taken positions inside hotels,shops houses and othe buildings Thousands of IDPS are also on street its going a real blood bath
Kabul Embassy: sources just now — reinforcements coming. Thousands Taliban in Kabul. Our staff burning all sensitives they cannot carry. Trying to get out by Sunday.
They’re inside Kabul on three fronts and have now surrounded the airport. The supposed deal the US brokered for an air corridor is looking shaky
Taliban have breached the outskirts of Kabul, heavy fight on going, American B-52s are bombing Taliban convey while 5000 US soldiers are being sent right now into Kabul…
12 Aug, 125 tweets, 18 min read
Kandahar has fallen. This will soon be announced by @Zabehulah_M33
Clearly to everyone following my feed this was not what I’ve been expecting or predicting.
I guess the Taliban managed to hold their franchise together better than the government for the fight.
Taliban preparing video now.
Interesting. There is clearly a bot pushed coordinated social media thing going on as well because my mentions are full of jihadi fan boys crowing.
And the changing of the guard……
Ghani simply couldn’t build the political coalition to hold the country together. And the ISI have done a cracking job.
So now key question is to what degree China gets involved.
Pakistani jihadi Twitter is a sewer
Afghanistan psychological tipping point has arrived.
US asking @ashrafghani to resign (because he was useless). Looks that Kabul will be negotiated for.
Negotiations ongoing about power sharing
Seems like obvious time to do announcement/donning of cloak. Can TB get leadership there in time?
Apparently US denying asking Ghani to resign. Who knows? It would leave Abdullah2 in charge which would be an odd negotiating choice with the Doha Talibs
Word is negotiations are over who is head of interim government
This surely a Suez moment for US, once China steps up as powerbroker?
I mean evacuating your civilians (embassy?) along with the UK a pretty big sign
All eyes on Friday Prayers in Kandahar
War is psychological - there was a gaping hole at the centre of Ghani’s gov where a political settlement should have been (held together only by US firepower) - and the ISI used semi-professionals, in concert with local mafia types to push that coalition until it toppled over
Pretty good hedging wouldn’t you say?
Interesting. Reports Karzai is in Kandahar
Some many failures collectively have led to this point.
Re Karzai in Kandahar. One assumes he’s been back channelling with Baradar who is also Popalzai (Karzai is leader of Popalzai).
Can you imagine Karzai as the interim leader that’s acceptable to all?
Kaleem Naqibulkah also went with him. Son of Mullah Naqibullah, he is leader of Alikozai, who there are quite a lot of in the Arghandab.
Get the barakzai on board and you’ve got the makings for a Kandahar Loya Jirga.
Only 274 years after the first one.
Which by the way (the barakzai guy) is Sherzai who has been with the government (who knows now?)
So one assumes this is about the remaining government troops at 205 Corps and also at the airfield.
But one also assumes Karzai (who sees himself as a peace maker) is angling to be consensus figure in any transitional gov.
So Karzai negotiating surrender of gov in Kandahar? So the gov troops can get out alive? Is that the play? Then US remove support for Ghani? Paving way for transitional arrangements?
Clear that US simply don’t care anymore.
Key insight from @bsarwary - people just switched sides in Herat. Here using tribal networks
Uruzgan and Zabol
Ismail Khan caught by TB in Herat. Second time for him!
What an extraordinary photo
It’s clear stuff like this the utter failure of the Ghani gov or the US et al to build a successful political franchise in Afg. Everyone just switched sides.
You see the US intervention was seen in terms of developmenty goals like democracy, and ‘participation’ and what not. But the reality is in Afghanistan you need to talk about and deal with real issues otherwise you open yourself up to armed attack from another political franchise
Click in subtweet for video
Confirmed by TB. Ismail Khan has switched sides in Herat.
Can anyone who speaks Dari translate the gist for me?
This is why we’ll get transitional arrangements. But key question - can Doha Talibs control younger more extreme military wing?
Catch up again on my thoughts for @CBSNews
Pentagon sending troops to Kabul to evacuate U.S. Embassy as Taliban gains more territory As CBS News’ Roxanna Saberi and David Martin report, the Pentagon is sending troops to Kabul to help drawdown personnel at the U.S. Embassy there as the Taliban continues its offensive in Afghanistan.…https://www.cbsnews.com/video/afghanistan-us-embassy-staff-latest-2021-08-12/
And here on @BBCRadioScot (2h6m in)
Afghanistan is at a perilous tipping point The Taliban stormed across Afghanistan this week, capturing more than a third of provincial capitals and severely jeopardising the stability of the Afghan government. Islamist fighters are now in cont…https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2021/08/afghanistan-perilous-tipping-point
If you’re interested and would like to read more you can get a
**** 50% DISCOUNT ****
off the paperback of An Intimate War
Go here: hurstpublishers.com/book/an-intima…
And use the code ‘INTIMATEWAR50’ at checkout
An Intimate War | Hurst Publishers Orders placed now will despatch August 13th With a new preface by Stathis N. Kalyvas 'The first serious effort to make sense of the war in Helmand … An Intimate War is an uncompromising, deeply …http://hurstpublishers.com/book/an-intima
Oh for god’s sake. Just go man. Thousands of lives depend on it.
Ghani not resigning is delusional. But will the Talibs really take Kabul by force? Seems too far fetched. Wait him out? Surround the city?
This confirmed by Afg gov sources
Rumours have it that Ismael Khan has gone to Kabul to get Atta Noor to come over. I guess that would expose Dostum. Echoes of history here.
Ok. Early reports that there is a transitional deal. 17/34 provinces to TB. Afg mil to disarm. Gov with TB ‘participation’
Logar gone. 70km from Kabul
Pretty clear now that Taliban massacres of previous adversaries have occurred in several areas to settle scores. Conflict, as always, local. Another set of war crimes committed in Afghanistan that will likely go unpunished.
Ghani - whose entire world view is predicated on the western post conflict reconstruction model - is facing a total personal crisis. Everything he has believed in - his life’s work - is crumbling in front of him. This is what is stopping him resigning.
If the rumours are true and Ismael Khan is trying to get atta to flip, then surely that will be curtains?
And I guess at probably will flip because it will expose Dostum - his foe - to the TB. And the TB want to get Dostum for the shipping containers.
A lot of badal (revenge) being served up today.
If true, clear that fragmentation has started already
This an excellent piece. Pakistan and China have miscalculated and now own this
Opinion | The Taliban’s Afghan Advance Spells Trouble for Pakistan and China Instability threatens the government in Islamabad and Beijing’s economic program in Central Asia.https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-withdrawal-biden-pakistan-taliban-russia-china-belt-and-road-cpec-economic-corridor-11628868392
So Dostum is gonna hold out. Has atta flipped?
So it seems like today (Saturday) is the crunch day in Kabul
NATO allies must be absolutely furious with the US at the unilateral nature of this. They’re now trying to get all their local staff out via the member state embassies.
Anyone heard anything from Massoud Jr. Surely the Panjshiris can’t flip?!
Battle for Mazar ongoing. Locals switching jeans for shalwar kameez
NATO, US, UK everyone pulling out of Kabul. This is starting to look like a rout
Other provincial capitals falling, districts falling
US sources say that Ghani was in a state of total denial when the ambassador saw him on Friday.
One assumes 1) that presence of us and uk troops plus air support will deter the Talibs from entering Kabul and 2) the multiple countries warning Talibs not to enter Kabul by force will stop them as they want int recognition
But this relies on two things:
- Doha Talibs have control of guys on ground; and
- Ghani will resign to pave way for transition.
Ashraf Ghani shortly to make speech.
Fascinating article from 2014. Clear Pentagon has some blame but surely also state for not forcing Ghani to broaden his coalition.
Obama orders Pentagon to prepare for full troop withdrawal from Afghanistan President speaks with Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai and says US is ‘moving forward with additional contingency planning’https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/25/obama-pentagon-us-troops-withdrawal-afghanistan
The P2K provinces look gone or going.
That CIA-trained militia force is gonna get slaughtered.
Love to have a comment from @MansourHaqqani ? I assume you’ve got dogs in these fights!
GHANI statement: not a resignation but recognising ‘historic responsibility’. Seems like it’s coming
Deluded. The consultations are about his future.
Regrouping the military ‘a top priority’, Afghan president says Ashraf Ghani’s pre-recorded statement said ‘serious steps’ are being taken to remobilise Afghanistan’s security forces.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/14/afghan-president-ghani-vows-to-fight-taliban-offensive
There’s still some battle going on in Maidan Shah capital of Wardak. Apparently the government is reinforcing it. Nuts. I thought it fell hours ago.
Just spoke to a friend in Kabul. Real fear in his voice. Awful.
Embassies and NATO massively speeding up plans to get people out
Apparently Ghani insisting on elections after transition but can’t see Talibs going for that. But much harder to take Kabul by force now with 3600 US/UK troops on the ground (although they may leave after evac)
Gardez gone apparently although some KPF holding out. TB now bringing stuff in for the fight.
So there must be like ten or twelve provinces left in gov hands.
Where’s the national political solution here?
All the local politicians have switched sides.
Locals pelting fleeing government soldiers as they leave Asadabad, Kunar. Not everyone that keen on the Talibs then.
Great here from Bilal who is from Asadabad.
The price of automatic weapons has dropped by 40% in two months in Afg as all those government stocks have come onto the market
And Mazar has fallen.
Very confused situation in Mazar, but in Taliban hands
Helicopters seen leaving for Uzbekistan so maybe atta has flipped (my assumption is that would have been Dostum getting out)
So just Kabul and Jalalabad left. Transitional arrangements now please. You cannot fight over a city of 4m people. This is plain.
This is a great point. IS officials attending security meetings with Ghani. Why aren’t they telling him to step down and negotiate handover? This is nuts.
Jalalabad will be falling soon
Ok. Word on the street. IEA to have full blown press conference on Sunday to launch Emirate. In Kandahar. Apparently foreign media invited. Can you confirm @BBCYaldaHakim @SecKermani @AJEnglish @CGTNOfficial ?
Sorry. Press conference in Kandahar. Dunno about emirate.
So if that’s true it lends credence that the Talibs won’t attack Kabul. But back to the old how in control of the military are the Doha Talibs?
“The US told the Taliban that if it avoids a direct confrontation with the US troops arriving in Kabul and waits for the completion of the evacuation, that increases the likelihood that both the int community/Afghans will accept Taliban’s entry into Kabul”
That’s the leverage the us has left. Surreal.
One assumes they haven’t got nearly as many marines on the ground as they thought
But the us has got strategic reserves all over the place.
Surely you can move it along a bit?
Early reports Jalalabad gone. So just Kabul left in gov hands.
US now sending another brigade to Kabul
Who among the US, the TB, Pakistan and Afg gov is thinking rationally?
Very clear UK and UK were not expecting the collapse this fast otherwise their evac operations wouldn’t be so slow.
Hence also extra US brigade. Give US more options.
And sends credible deterrence signal
Which obviously hasn’t worked. TB are assaulting Pul-e Charki prison.
That will make the NEO super hard
Clear TB are taking Kabul by force
Posted without knowing credibly of source
But TB have decided to go in. Coupled with Emirate announcement in Kandahar?
Allied AirPower going in hard on prison
Anas Haqqani to become governor of Nagahar. On blacklist. Clear Talibs don’t want recognition (or those on ground don’t / or Haqqani and Yacoub (Mullah Omar’s son) who don’t get on have properly fallen out.
Could also be that I was wrong and the Doha Talibs didn’t want recog
But see rebuttal here - not clear what going on
Seems clear that TB now surrounds Kabul from North, West and South. Currently 0430 in Kabul. Sunrise in 45 minutes.
Some reports of government forces retreating, but not clear. US/UK no statement yet RE evac
Is this the strategic play?
US/UK trying desperately to get westerners out. If they can, no recog for TB.
If they fail and hostage crisis, then clear hostage exchange for recognition.
This moment will be talked about in history classes for decades.
Big questions are:
Will TB regime get recognition?
Who will be main backer? Not US (obv), so China?
So China puts its hand in the mangle?
Early reports that Turkey is withdrawing from airport. That’s about 9% of NATO force leaving (in numbers terms). Most capable elements remain - UK and US
Commercial flights still going into Kabul HK Airport
Eastern side of Kabul - that is still open - is route that Brits took in 1842. Deliberately left open?
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
Keep Current with Dr Mike Martin
Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!
Add to “My Authors” Read all threads
BREAKING: Reports indicate that the Turkish government has decided to evacuate all military and civilian personnel in Kabul in the coming hours. It is not known if this includes the 600 troops guarding the international airport #Afghanistan Read our previous article on Turkey
Erdogan Asks Pakistan Army’s Taliban Units to End Occupation of Afghanistan. Why is Turkey Interested in Afghanistan? Will Pakistan Let Turkey Spoil its Future Plans? #PakistanArmyTalibanUnit #Taliban #Pakistan #Turkey #NATO #US #Russia #China #Balochistan https://newscomworld.com/2021/07/21/erdogan-asks-pakistan-armys-taliban-units-to-end-occupation-of-afghanistan-why-is-turkey-interested-in-afghanistan-will-pakistan-let-turkey-spoil-its-future-plans/…
Dear Americans, your president @JoeBiden will never be forgiven for what he did to Afghanistan. He literally threw Afghans to the wolves. You people have no idea how helpless and agonized Afghans are right now! #Afghanistan #Kabul
36 days ago, President Biden told the American people that the Taliban would not take over #Afghanistan after he ordered the removal of U.S. troops.
INBOX - Trump statement on the situation unfolding in Kabul.
Hmmm, seems like this is not urgent enough, if Simple Simon is asleep right now he’s not going to like Sundays headlines, nor may Irish people.
Irish citizens in Afghanistan advised to 'leave as soon as possible
“If you are currently in Afghanistan, you are advised to leave as soon as possible by commercial means due to the worsening security situation. Irish citizens in Afghanistan should contact the Irish Embassy in Abu Dhabi to confirm their departure plans.
“There are limits to the assistance the Department of Foreign Affairs can provide in a crisis and you should not rely on the Department of Foreign Affairs being able to evacuate you from Afghanistan in an emergency.
“We cannot guarantee that we will be in a position to offer consular assistance should you decide to remain there.
“If you consider your presence in Afghanistan to be absolutely essential, you should have adequate and continuous professional security arrangements and ensure they are regularly reviewed, adhere to public health advice, and we would strongly advise that you make contact with the Irish Embassy in Abu Dhabi if you have not already done so.”
Probably collecting Turkish embassy staff/officials.
Looks like the Afghan national army didn’t fight at all
Why would they ?
This is another moment when the right thinking people who rule the West, need to sit down and seriously think about the core beliefs that underpin their dumb ideology/religion