With the expiration of the MIR on December 31st and the introduction of the property tax (which probably increase the cost of ownership by between 3.5 to 4.5% of value) and the hairshirt budget i think property can only continue to go down.
There are at least 2 more austerity budgets to come and quite a chance of more.
The only saving grace would be if we get some debt relief and there is more growth than expected but no reason to believe there is not another 10% to come off in Dublin and much more outside the greater dublin area. There continues to be less people in the workforce from year to year.
This Budget has really hammered home to me that there is no limit to what will be sacrificed to maintain the lifestyles of those represented by the government parties. This policy will never create economic growth, or even stability, and so down the sink-hole we go. The thought of purchasing a property in this country just seems insane now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a continued migration to urban areas that supports prices. There might even be increases in the more salubrious suburbs as the protected sector compete with each other for the better houses, but it can’t be sustained while the majority are broken on the wheel.
Well they are committed to giving as much nama stock to social housing projects.
by social housing I mean being housed next to anti-social violent work shy people who would make the rest of your life unpleasant.
Would you buy in a partially completed NAMA estates knowing that you could have the dregs of humanity living beside you? That’ll have an effect on property prices.
Disclaimer: I don’t believe all social housing tenants are anti-social violent work shy dregs of humanity but certainly a sizable proportion are and will do their best to give grounds to perpetuate the stereotype.
IMO prices will go down as an overall. You may see prices in certain areas in Dublin which may remain or slightly increase but as an overall the market will still keep falling.
The government is taking money away from the economy and that will certainly have an immediate impact in prices. Adding to this that there is no growth or new jobs being created I do not see a huge amount of new buyers coming into the property ladder and those who would love to move cant because cant afford to sell.
The 9% stamp duty would have not made any sense as there is now a new property tax in place and the 0.18% is also there to be increased annually.
If we look at it not from the micro-economic perspective of the residential propertyf market itself, but rather the marco-economic position of the overall economy and ask; In aggregate, what effect will the budget measures have on the overall potential house buyer cohort?
Once you form your view of that, then it’s simple “supply and demand” to develop a market view.
These measures will surely produce a downward momentum in the market. From what I’ve seen, that will be especially the case in SCD and surroundings. A denting of confidence in those areas will tend to lead to a reinforcing downward spiral of house prices in the sector.