**AIB HOUSING BULLETIN JUNE 07**


#1

Some good up to the minute information there. The amount of completions for this year is important for predicting job losses and the future unemployment rate.
If we had a graph(I might do one up) of the supply and demand curve that represented the past few years average house price and total completions per year and if we had a figure for completions this year we could get the TRUE VALUE of the average house in Ireland for the year 2007. Of course all other things remaining the same and if sidewinders prediction of 54,000 houses is true it throws us back to 2001/2002 prices adjusted for inflation.


#2

Supply and demand curve - a bit crude but I dont have the right software on this computer to do any better - had to use a programme on the net. If anyone has access to some decent software the info is readily available below…

The info needed for the supply and demand graph:


#3

Matt Cooper in the Sunday Times quoted AIB as saying that by the end of 2007 they expect;

  1. 10,000 fewer people to be employed in construction
  2. reductions in property prices on a y/y basis.

Now, given that there are fewer than 6 months left in 2007, 10K job losses before year end! :open_mouth:

Blue Horseshoe


#4

I am interested to know if the average house prices are based on current properties for sale as Dublin has increased from 427k to 429k. I think this is not really reflective of value so it should be interesting to see how this same data reads in 8 months time.


#5

I think 10,000 is being a little conservative!!

Im starting think that this crash is gonna be big news in the 3rd and 4th Quarter. There will be no hiding it. What other tricks could they pull?


#6

Waiting for the budget to see if tax relief for FTB’s is increased I suppose. :laughing: