Allsop Auction : Discount from Bubble Prices


#1

Without question the Allsop auction’s have been a success. I think they provide a tiny bit of much needed transparency to a market where it is almost impossible to know what property sell for.

Much has been made of the properties selling for significantly over their asking prices, 36.1% according to NWL.
However I think the reserve price is fairly irrelevant what really matters is how far below bubble prices the properties are selling.

With that in mind I have tried to track through as many of the residential properties as possible to see if I can find an old asking price on IPW. In some cases the exact house is there from back in 2007/08, in other cases I have had to use a little bit of judgement and pick a similar house/apartment from the database and in others I cannot find any suitable match.

Overall I think I have managed to find a suitable price for 45 out of the 64 residential sales that went through in the auction, 70% by number but 80% of the acution by value sold.

Overall I think the prices the properties sold for was on average 68% below bubble prices.

I have uploaded the results to this google doc, if anyone spots any mistakes or links for more properties let me know and I can add them to the sheet.

The google doc
spreadsheets.google.com/spreads … c&hl=en_US

https://img685.imageshack.us/img685/978/auction1.png
https://img543.imageshack.us/img543/5918/auction2.png


#2

Wow! Good work DE. That’ll sober up some vendors.


#3

Great work, ta. I’d been hoping to do a price/sq.ft. on the Allsop properties, but not enough info available.


#4

Muchas gracias DE.

Interesting to see how far prices have fallen, with so much more still to come.


#5

Very nice and useful piece of research. Thanks a million.


#6

great work. Thanks


#7

An inappropriate comparison in the case of 35 Ailesbury Road. The house was sold by Allsop/Space with only 2/3 of the back garden, the bottom 1/3 is owned by someone else (perhaps a bank) and carries permisssion for a mews house, which will overlook the back garden. The house used for comparison was sold with its entire back garden intact. No sure how to adjust for this but it is a big difference.


#8

Excellent work, makes a shit of daft and myhome current asking prices, people knocking 30% and 40% off bubble prices and in some cases less are only codding themselves, price it right and they will come, simple as.


#9

Great work DE. I really think this needs to be pushed into the media. I don’t understand why journalist can not do this level of investigation when creating property articles. They are failing to see the wood from the trees.


#10

Great work DE I do hope some enterprising journalists use this data for their articles on Allsops auctions which I’m sure they are planning for tomorrow’s papers.

morgan.kelly (at) ucd.ie might appreciate your analysis also.


#11

Imagine, places there which sold for an 80% discount from peak, if your figures are right!

Rubbing hands gleefully at prospect of buying lovely house within 2 years’ time for cash only

Unless, of course, cash is wiped out by currency collapse

Pessimism gets a bad press. Pessimism is actually good


#12

Thank you so much DE. Excellent piece of authorotative and competent and appropriately qualified work there unlike so much of the spiv that we receive from the spin doctors.

Well done to you!


#13

+1 to all the other thanks.


#14

you sure? the allsop link says that garage and garden to rear included. Presumably the garage is at the end of the back garden?


#15

Excellent Work!!!

With regard to Lot 10 - 249 Upper Kilmacud Road - I lived along there in 2006/7 and was staggered at the prices achieved for 3 bed semi-d’s at that time. I believe that a house, approx 8 doors up, sold for €915k at that time - madness!!! Therefore €280 is a 70% drop - right in line with your calculations!


#16

+1 What a piece of work…

Great Analysis!!!


#17

That’s terrific work by Dreaded Estate. Many of us have been squinting and estimating what the Thursday auction meant for property prices but this work nails a lot of it - to see an asking price down by 84% is truly sobering. Well done!


#18

google.ie/url?sa=t&source=ne … xvNyAWDzHw

FInancial Times - Yesterday


#19

Kuddos to DE and gwan the MK with his estimated 80% drop in prices


#20

Great work DE I wonder will any of the Sundays pick this up