Am I just too cynical?

From forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showtopic=21937

I just don’t buy this 5 million in 12 years. Is there any justification for these predictions or is it simply extrapolating current growth into the future?

700 a month are leaving for Australia thats not including their families - thats just the figure for the applicant with the skill for the visa.

I reckon that will grow and grow until Oz has filled its quotas.

independent.ie/national-news … 62343.html

I could see a decrease in the population in the future. I think the stars are aligning for a worst case scenario involving a long drawn out “crash”. Time will tell.

Research suggests that European populations will fall over the coming decades.

Wow so many Asian to work in sweat shops and so few Europeans to enjoy the fruits of their labour.

The future looks bright for the Firang.

Depends where the bulk of the population growth is supposed to be coming from. If they are saying this will be immigrant led growth then I think it is no more than an extrapolation of current growth…a very dubious projection if you ask me. If, on the other hand, they are saying that this growth will be based on present demographics (i.e. a huge cohort of women are in or are entering into the baby-making phase, longer life spans, etc) well then this is more solid grounds for making such a projection (in spite of the “release valve” of emigration in the event of a prolonged downturn). My own hunch is that it seems fairly reasonable if it is based on the critical assumption of decent growth patterns in the next 12 years. Now thats another argument altogether!

I think we have to take this one with the same pinch of salt we took all semi-d will be worht 1.5 miilion in x years Pr a few years back. Also a revisit to Green bears Youtube posts on the exponential fallacy that is yoy high growth.

Heard on the radio today that Asian immigrants are becoming the largest FTBs in the country. Can’t find a URL to the story at the moment though.

Last year Asian FTBs bought 500 units, everyone else 45000.

This year Asian FTBs buy 500 units, , everyone else 450.

Ta dah… Asian immigrants are becoming the largest FTBs in the country.

Its like the prices are falling but yields increase, like dah!!

(not dissing you crashandburn just the stats and spin the vi’s bandy about)

Anecdotally this points to a total and utter collapse in volume!

Even if the asian section of the population have increased their buying activits by 50 or 100% its still a disaster.

Does anyone have % stats of asians buying now?

Hospital Staff in other words.

Stats. for non national FTBs for 2006:

Almost one-in-five first-time buyers are non-Irish nationals
24th August, 2006

According to these stats. the no. of non national FTBs has actually dropped since last year.This would tie in with the fact that the economy is slowing.So we have a lower % of non national FTBs out of the total FTBs which are also down this year.
This doesn’t auger too well if population growth is supposed to come from immigration.

The rapid growth in Ireland’s population was driven in the past 15 years by two key factors - immigration and natural growth. Even if immigration were to slow down or even reverse into emigration - quite possible in the coming years if the fallout from the property crash is really bad - then natural increase will keep population growing for a good while yet.

Don’t forget that after our economy turned crap in the early 1980s, population still grew until 1986 - it was only after 1986 that population shrank a small bit due to mass emigration. So population movements tend to lag a few years behind economic trends.

Remember, Ireland’s baby boom was between 1972 and 1982 and women in this age category have delayed having babies due to careers etc. Now that they have started to reproduce, we’ll see a big rise in births and probably a whole new baby boom. I doubt we’ll now make 5 million by 2020 but it is possible this will be reached in the coming 20 years.

The thing is that modern Irish women are now more likely to have only one or two babies compared to four or five back in the sixties/seventies due to careers and starting a family a lot later
That could counter act a lot of the baby boom factor.

And contraception.

I’m sure they’re just extrapolating the birth rate averaged over the last ten years or so, people do understand normalisation of data, even in the public sector. :stuck_out_tongue:

Not through native Irish births.

Ireland’s birth rate was 3.55 in 1975.
Ireland’s birth rate is 1.87 in 2006.

I simply cannot see how couples can afford to have children, pay a mortgage, provide for a pension and pay day to day costs. The replacement rate (i.e. to keep our population at a constant) is roughly 2.1. I only see our birth rate going to continue its slow decline.

independent.ie/business/iris … 62956.html

Mainly hospital staff though , not construction staff !

I wish they allowed comments on this article, it is horribly deceptive.

It doesn’t mention if more foreign nationals are buying, it just says they are making up a greater percentage and that there are more immigrants coming in. Looks like it is desperately trying to suggest that foreign nationals are buying more houses than usual when they may not be.

Sales volume info???

Perish the thought, just keep spinning!!! :imp: