Analysis - price/sq.ft.

I’m thinking of doing a price/sq.ft. analysis of all properties on myhome.ie … or at least those for which the “beds-type” field on their search results have a format like this: “4 Bed Detached House For Sale - 154m²”.

I know there are folks here who have run analyses against some of the property sites. While I can easily rustle up the tools to do this, maybe someone could tell me: (1) has someone else done this already, (2) is there some easy way to get at a property database other than hit the website for some thousands of pages, 10 results per page (and will this have any nasty consequences), (3) any other tips/advice, (4) anything else I could usefully analyse while I’m at it?

Ta in advance.

Why? I am becoming increasingly concerned that we will enter a cash market in 2011 where the only relevant metric is the necessity to sell. The Irish banks are in seriously bad shape, the winter snow will have stressed many businesses - how can you talk of averages in the worlds most distressed and yet irrational market?

Not much help but my tuppence worth!

:smiley: I wouldn’t waste all your talent and time and effort. This place is a powder-keg, and something’s about to give. The complexities that have caused our economic downfall go far far beyond just property and bad governance. If these concerns are adressed and clarified I think you will see some pretty hefty changes coming into place. Everything will change, while everything will remain the same. I know that probably sounds a bit conflictive but its not. But anyways, your idea is good, greater clarity and ease, right? That has to extend much farther than just property websites. One thing that has to be very clear, the days of property speculation have come to their final dead end.

I think this would be valuable as the market is going to become very utilitarian in 2011; by that I mean most buyers will only be buying if they have to and will focus on the question:

“Now that I have decided not to emigrate and not to rent, how do I house my family and make the most of the situation that prevails in this country”

So you are not going to see people “trading down” (because they won’t want to sell in the first place; they’ll wait for their kids to inherit), or people moving for aspirational reasons (they’ll emigrate first or sell to rent). Most of those smart enough to dodge the crash are also smart enough not to buy in 2011. The buyers pool should be overwhelmingly be those who dodged the crash but absolutely have to buy (new baby; already raising 2 kids in a 2 bed).

I suggest you add into the analysis:

  1. Last known renovation date or which decade it was decorated in, judging from photos.

  2. Garage present and / or converted

  3. Number of photos posted (1 or less usually indicates a wreck).

  4. Garden commentary. Whether “south facing” or “west facing” omitted.

esri report on the proximity to rail services in Dublin area might prove useful background reading for such analysis

esri.ie/publications/search_ … ml?id=2676

Karl Deeter was just on Newstalk saying that build costs are now at €90 per square foot, for a completed house.

Thanks for the input so far.

CO and V4V, I take your points and of course there is a bigger picture, but I still think an additional evidence-based metric would be useful to have. It’s one that could be of value even when the powers-that-are-soon-not-to-be grace us with the fabled property price database.

FbyR and YRG, interesting suggestions. I’m kind of limited to what a piece of software can extract from the property listings. Floor area is one that is available in a structured way, whereas renovation date, garage and garden info, may be impossible to parse in a reliable way. (Although if anyone out there has written a parser for EA-speak and survived with their sanity intact, let me know :smiley: ). Number of photos probably could be done – I’ll keep it in mind.

SM - was there any breakdown of build costs by region? Might be interesting to see if second hand asking prices bear any correlation.

I think this would be very very useful for apartments, where you’re not getting any external area.

For houses you’d need to work out some way of weighting in the size of the site, in fact I’d go so far as to say you shouldn’t be looking at price/sqft for houses, but at:
(Price of property - (Sqft of house * build cost per sqft))/the area of the site itself.
Basically a cost per sqft for the site without the house on it.

Unfortunately the size of the site itself isn’t usually given in the ads.

Have a look at this thread

Some of the posters there were/are very keen on the price/sq.ft metric.

Thanks a mil’ Gilroy, I have bumped that thread.

jess - nice idea but I don’t think I can easily get site area.

Ok, here – with major caveats – are some preliminary results. This is all the properties on myhome.ie for which area, price and property type were all given. (Only about one third of properties have areas). I’ve converted from sq.mtr. to sq.ft.

The myhome data was horribly buggy in many ways. They’ve entered sq.ft as sq.mtr. in many cases, and even some acres. To combat this I omitted everything under 50 sq.mtr and above 500 sq.mtr, and everything with a price per sq.ft. outside the range 40-1000. (A quick visual check suggests that this gets rid of many/most anomalies).

Sample size shows how many properties in each category – rows with low sample sizes should be treated as (even more) suspect. Anyway, FWIW:

[code]COUNTY/ HOUSES SAMPLE APARTMENTS SAMPLE
POSTCODE €/SQ.FT SIZE €/SQ.FT SIZE

carlow 172 232 218 4
cavan 143 64
clare 171 347 169 27
cork 214 872 288 73
cork-city 256 200 315 25
cork-west 224 166 366 23
donegal 137 25
dublin 353 2341 355 716
dublin-1 269 20 366 47
dublin-10 249 8 264 1
dublin-11 266 93 278 27
dublin-12 280 110 281 7
dublin-13 328 65 278 23
dublin-14 380 201 390 32
dublin-15 274 140 285 51
dublin-16 357 200 372 36
dublin-17 264 21 292 7
dublin-18 396 136 365 72
dublin-2 390 12 464 44
dublin-20 323 12 273 7
dublin-22 221 35 262 11
dublin-24 258 73 288 22
dublin-3 338 121 346 23
dublin-4 529 133 486 68
dublin-5 309 79 341 7
dublin-6 459 168 417 41
dublin-6W 396 86 360 10
dublin-7 304 87 338 44
dublin-8 353 80 325 50
dublin-9 313 120 292 29
dublin-county 359 769 351 189
dublin-north 307 777 319 237
dublin-south 411 1172 403 367
dublin-west 262 389 267 111
galway 184 392 316 36
galway-city 226 51 294 25
kerry 218 105 267 4
kildare 223 488 243 39
kilkenny 175 140 213 10
laois 144 103 124 6
leitrim 135 113 148 15
limerick 174 239 228 46
limerick-city 191 68 237 39
longford 134 171 202 11
louth 186 162 175 13
mayo 168 264 223 26
meath 199 326 202 32
monaghan 154 43 217 2
offaly 170 30 276 3
roscommon 164 168 243 10
sligo 176 226 255 31
tipperary 180 327 243 8
waterford 194 223 233 12
westmeath 173 143 249 13
wexford 169 418 214 26
wicklow 310 622 303 64 [/code]

If anyone wants the raw data I can provide a csv or (maybe) xml file. Data captured were: county/postcode, #beds, type of house/apt/site, sale/auction, tax type (section 23, pre '63 etc.), floor area sq.mtr, price, num photos on myhome, homogenised price/sq.ft, hyperlink to ad on myhome.ie. There are about 60,000 entries (including overlaps of counties/postcodes) and about a third have floor areas.

[EDIT: show houses and apartments in a single table]
[EDIT: better outlier filtering]

well done to picking up this.

Another snippet. Houses only:

[code]COUNTY/ HOUSES SAMPLE
POSTCODE #BEDS €/SQ.FT SIZE

cork 2 226 58
cork 3 216 320
cork 4 215 354
cork 5 198 102
dublin 2 369 313
dublin 3 328 1025
dublin 4 366 689
dublin 5 399 218
galway 2 270 18
galway 3 202 102
galway 4 173 188
galway 5 169 70
limerick 2 223 14
limerick 3 169 83
limerick 4 168 93
limerick 5 184 41 [/code]

Seems like in other counties you get more bang for your buck the more rooms you buy, whereas in Dublin you pay a premium for larger houses.

Good work ps200306. Thanks for doing this analysis. Cheers.

Interesting stuff, thank you.

It may relate to the level of overbuild for each property size/type?

That’s fantastic work. I’m a big fan of the price per sq. ft., it’s the only proper way to look at the value of a place IMO. Although I prefer price sq metre, i’m more used to it

I lived in Holland for a while, and the main site for there is www.funda.nl. Houses are listed with size and you can compare easily. Best parts of Amsterdam around the Vondelpark area (Holland has unemployment rate 4%, no IMF, no ECB…) at around the same level per square metre as Dublin 4 or 6.

It would be interesting to do a comparison with other countries, if people have knowledge of the market.

With the same health warning as last time, here are prices per square foot scraped from myhome.ie for the beginning of April. I didn’t bother with apartments this time – I may do that for cities later. Q/Q change is given to the nearest percent. As before, treat small sample sizes as suspect. For instance, the 5% drop in Dublin South with over 1100 houses is more reliable than the 8% rise in Dublin 1 with only 14.

[code]COUNTY/ HOUSES SAMPLE Qtr/Qtr
POSTCODE €/SQ.FT SIZE Change

carlow 165 246 -4%
cavan 136 49 -5%
clare 163 318 -5%
cork 205 881 -4%
cork-city 234 243 -9%
cork-west 226 166 1%
donegal 138 23 1%
dublin 337 2179 -5%
dublin-1 291 14 8%
dublin-10 198 7 -20%
dublin-11 265 87 0%
dublin-12 271 102 -3%
dublin-13 326 55 -1%
dublin-14 366 171 -4%
dublin-15 266 133 -3%
dublin-16 340 190 -5%
dublin-17 252 18 -5%
dublin-18 362 139 -9%
dublin-2 366 15 -6%
dublin-20 271 19 -16%
dublin-22 216 34 -2%
dublin-24 250 64 -3%
dublin-3 328 98 -3%
dublin-4 494 124 -7%
dublin-5 292 70 -6%
dublin-6 453 149 -1%
dublin-6W 372 69 -6%
dublin-7 292 93 -4%
dublin-8 342 85 -3%
dublin-9 300 126 -4%
dublin-county 341 718 -5%
dublin-north 296 689 -4%
dublin-south 390 1111 -5%
dublin-west 251 371 -4%
galway 186 373 1%
galway-city 227 61 0%
kerry 203 113 -7%
kildare 210 475 -6%
kilkenny 163 133 -7%
laois 129 88 -10%
leitrim 130 132 -4%
limerick 171 189 -2%
limerick-city 178 77 -7%
longford 129 192 -4%
louth 178 155 -4%
mayo 168 228 0%
meath 200 272 1%
monaghan 147 46 -5%
offaly 151 26 -11%
roscommon 158 143 -4%
sligo 172 226 -2%
tipperary 174 287 -3%
waterford 184 221 -5%
westmeath 169 102 -2%
wexford 166 438 -2%
wicklow 297 618 -4%
[/code]

FUCKIN Awesome. Well done. Spin-free data.

Houses by # beds:

[code]COUNTY/ HOUSES SAMPLE Qtr/Qtr
POSTCODE #BEDS €/SQ.FT SIZE Change

cork 2 218 64 -4%
cork 3 205 336 -5%
cork 4 206 347 -4%
cork 5 195 105 -2%
dublin 2 355 312 -4%
dublin 3 310 912 -5%
dublin 4 350 666 -4%
dublin 5 388 210 -3%
galway 2 266 19 -1%
galway 3 206 100 2%
galway 4 172 173 -1%
galway 5 168 68 -1%
limerick 2 240 10 8%
limerick 3 167 72 -1%
limerick 4 168 73 0%
limerick 5 170 28 -8%[/code]

EDIT: I commented last time that “seems like in other counties you get more bang for your buck the more rooms you buy, whereas in Dublin you pay a premium for larger houses”. One thing I just happened to notice this time around is the big difference in overall size between 3 and 4 bed houses in Dublin. 4-beds are on average over 50% bigger, which I guess goes to show what a load of shitbox 3-beds were built as the standard Dublin house in recent times.

Wonderful data. Thanks very much ps200306. Very kindly appreciated.