...and that was the "Dead Cat".

So, supply in Blackrock, Monkstown, Dun Laoghaire etc. seems to be increasing.

Some stuff not seen for awhile back on. myhome.ie/residential/brochu … lin/219502

Mortgage interest relief on the way out.

Another hairshirt budget on the way.

Property taxes about the land.

DISCUSS?

anecdotally everything I call about is gone sale agreed etc :frowning:
Decent stuff priced right is shifting quick. Small smelly old houses - not so much.
I should add that although I’ve seen more price rises than anytime in the past few years, stuff is still getting marked down heavily.

Three other points along the line of above include:

The supply of people with chunky deposits has reduced

It’s the end of the selling season

Imminent debt insolvency regime

I think the property tax impact has not really sunk in for those that may be inclined to buy expensive properties

Despite all the negative points I think some areas of scd (comments not specific to blackrock)are probably close to bottoming if they have not done so already.

My central scenario does not see strong price rises and prices in most areas are likely to further price decreases.

Despite this view being my central scenario I would not bet the house(corny or what) on it.

The other thing I don’t get about Dublin is why so many people want a house to move into. So many are sites only, and should be prices as such and flattened.

I am on to D14/16 and 18 for 4 bed detached houses and have seen nothing new

I think 2012 overall to date has seen increased consumer sentiment towards the housing market.

The 2012 Budget was relatively grand for most people, with the VAT rise accounting for most of the needed funds.

2013 and 2014 Budgets will hit people far more in their pockets and take home pay.

This will in turn reduce their sentiment towards what are acceptable market prices, as well as perceived and actual buying power.

Then we have the property tax come July 2013 onwards, administered by Revenue.

Water charges in 2014 or so as well…

Prices will be down, down, down

Where is all this new supply?

Take two estates of four-bed detached houses in Dublin 18 that I’m familiar with. One is Kerrymount in Foxrock - about 130 or so houses overlooking a large green and in various cul-de-sacs, just off Cornelscourt Hill Road. Over the last year or two there seemed to have been about five or six of these for sale at any one time (some discussed here). All appear to have sold and there are currently none for sale. Very nearby, on the left side going up Cornelscourt Hill, in The Park, Cabinteely are about 120 detached, 4-bed dormer bungalows, overlooking a green area/stream and in five or six cul-de sacs. There are usually about two or three of these houses for sale at a time during the Spring/Autumn selling season. There are currently none on the market. That’s 250 properties in total in a fairly decent area, with not one for sale. I’ve lived around here since 1999 and I’ve never known a time when there weren’t several houses in both estates on the market at any given time.

Not scientific evidence, I know. But enough to tell me that supply isn’t pouring onto the market…

I just counted 6 for sale in The Park Cabinteely on Myhome!

That’s right but The Park is pretty much split in half, both physically (by a river) and in terms of house types. I was specifically talking about 120 or so 4-bed detached two-story bungalows south of the River/stream.

I have noticed lately prices are Plummeting in Dublin 18, just the last month or so. Is that my imagination?! Am inviting the wrath of the cynics here… E.g. In Foxrock

Example Willow Cottage Westminster rd, €995k to €895k

Dunroamin Gordon Ave €899k to €799k

Silver stream Westminster rd €1.2 million down to €995k

There are more, but I’m not going to sit here all night…

Fair enough. Yes, true, although personally my favourite bit of the Park is up in the Sycamore Something cul-de-sacs (a maze admittedly) nearer to Carrickmines Wood/ Claremount. No flooding! No water rats… Ughghh. No cider parties with your house overlooking them at 3am :smiley:

On both sides of the argument, I personally think some of the previous comments may be somewhat flawed

We can’t really take these houses as examples as they are not ‘universally appealing’:

Willow Cottage, Wesminster Rd. - beautiful and full of charm, probably badly insulated, needs renovation unless the buyer appreciates the current decor (I do). At €520/sq.ft its still looking quite expensive.

Dunroamin, Gordon Ave - would be better off knocking it.

Silver Stream, Westminster - agents are doing a bad job with advertising it. Did they take those photos on a camera phone circa 2005? The whole house looks dark and dreary in the photos. It doesn’t seem to have much of a garden from looking at google satellite. The house also seems to be long and narrow, so maybe the layout isn’t as fantastic as the agent claims, although that’s purely speculation.

@ HiFi: You can’t just look at two (settled) estates to examine whether there is supply or not. People have no reason to move from Kerrymount or The Park. I’m sure it’s mostly families and there has been plenty of activity there (Kerrymount anyway, I don’t know much about The Park) in recent years, now they’re all sold up it could be a while before other families up and go.

The total number of properties advertised for sale on DAFT for SCD + SCityD is now at 1,482.
It was 1,402 at the end of August
1,509 at the end of July,
1,618 June,
1,637 May,
1,739 April,
1,822 March,
1,869 Feb and
1,972 Jan
Down from approx. 3,600 4 years ago (I don’t have monthly data going back that far though)
It increases slightly every year in Q4 but has been on a consistently YOY downward trend for the past 4 years.

Remember that nothing new is being built so if new properties are coming on the market they are 2nd hand which means there are new buyers coming on the market too (unless you want to assume they are all executor sales or are all emigrating - some might be but not all)

…and how many of these rentals will be forced on the market by the property tax. Optimism in stable prices will be tempered by the lack of funding. I will be renewing my rental again this year.

I agree, I don’t think you can take the rental market or the sales market in isolation.
I’ve found properties listed for sale and rent at the same time. I guess the owners were indifferent between the two options at the prices advertised and happy to accept whichever came back with the best result.
I also know people that have gotten sick of being landlords and have sold and others that have decided not to sell but to rent instead.
At one point I tried to see if there was a way to track properties moving between categories i.e. did they go from “for sale” to “for rent” if rents picked up or vice versa but me and IT don’t get along to well so when it started taking far too long and I couldn’t see any clear trend, I lost interest and gave up.

Its still mostly cash in the 600K+ market and none of the downside conditions in the market, the budget, etc matter for them, they just want to get something half decent in their chosen location for their spend. This is a challenge.

A few have buckled and settled for buying total wrecks, and this gets EA’s wetting themselves with excitement.

Until decent supply comes on the dead cat will remian grounded!!

I did say it was unscientific - but I think what you say about people having “no reason to move” from the above-mentioned estates could have applied at any time in the past ten years. Some people clearly *did *have reason to move. My observation is that there has always, at any given time (over the last ten years) been two or three of the those particular detached four-bedroomed houses for sale in either estates. If supply is on the increase - why is no-one selling here now? (250 houses is quite a large number - with not one of them on the market in the current autumn selling season.) Yes, there has been a bit of activity in Kerrymount recently - clearly four or five have sold this year (several skips outside at the moment.)
daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=660371
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … 18/1628965
search.savills.ie/Properties/Res … -Rise.aspx
We know (or at least suspected) that some were holding off until the market improved. Now that it has, (in this sector of the market) why hasn’t this prompted more of those sitting on the fence to make their move now?

I’m more interested in repos

If the repos don’t start and tens of thousands of people are allowed:

  1. Stay in PPR’s they can’t afford
  2. Use income from BTL to pay PPR mortgage but not be moved on because the BTL is secured against PPR also

Then we may be near bottom in SCD. If this is the case I will never buy in Ireland and may move abroad in the next 2-3 years. I simply refuse to pay an inflated asset price while so many get to live in homes I couldn’t afford practically for free

If you’re that keen on the area, have you considered contacting the homeowners directly? Out of so many houses surely someone is considering selling but hasn’t put it on the market for various different reasons.

Let’s get real. These repos will never happen on a high enough scale to provide enough supply.

Currently only 1 in 400 houses >90 days in arrears are respossessed via court order.

Having seen the market conditions, incl. this inertia to respossess and the bottoming of prices in many parts of SCD in the past 6 months or so, I’ve pretty much made up my mind never to buy in Dublin.

I’ll rent for a few more years and hopefully get a transfer down the country. Fed up of the insanity that is SCD and gov/bank policy not to repossess PPRs.