Anglo PWC report

finance.gov.ie/documents/pub … glopwc.pdf
(44 pages out of the original 120 pages released)

and the minister’s statement:
finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=5686

P.26 Liqidity - the runs:

Security collateral p.29:

Mothballs p.32:

Top 20 p.32:

Stress test p.36

This gets my goat a bit - which independent analysts and brokers would that be? Who in Ireland is really independent?

Stress test p.37:

Money markets p.40:

7,237.5 mn to IL&P
The other 9 counterparties amounting to some 2,600 mn names removed.

:neutral_face:

And the IL&P bit that we get to see:

fair play YM, you read all of it?

Quick scan to see if there was anything juicy… I may have missed bits… I don’t have the reading skills of a minister :mrgreen:

edit: there are not all that many words on a page! Under an hours work to go through what’s published.

Good man YM. I’m on web-minor this evening, so I’m just looking at pin. Did they give any book strats that would allow a person do their own assessment? Anything on repayment type?

The paid 37 stress test reads like nonsense. What the hell is “our own view as to future trends”? Is this PWC or our unerring dept of finance?

Loan book (I think this is what you mean dogbite?):

Development Loan Book - 30 September 2008
€ inmillions Unzoned Zoned Full PP WIP   Total  %of loan book
Ireland      934     4,142 2,255   5,512 12,843 17.3%
UK           489     1,032   924   3,052  5,497  7.4%
Sub-total  1,423     5,174 3,179   8,564 18,340 24.7%
US                                        1,339 1.8%
Total Development Lending                19,679 26.5%

Investment Loan Book - 30 September 2008
€ in millions Hotel Mixed Office Resi  Retail Other Total  %of loan book
Ireland       3,923 2,179  5,230 1,308 6,102  5,230 23,972 32.2%
UK            2,349 1,495  3,203   854 4,484  3,844 16,229 21.8%
US            1,224 1,318  2,165 1,129 1,412    565  7,813 10.5%
Sub-total     7,496 4,992 10,598 3,291 11,998 9,639
Total Investment Lending                            48,014 64.6%

On repayment type, all I could see was this:

I suppose the_edge is still going to say this isn’t a resigning matter… Why the fuck wasn’t Bruton calling for Lenihan’s head tonight?!? :question:

Very sanitised report. Why am I not surprised.

Jones Lang are good guys but I would say they were over optimistic with their valuations.

I would not be surprised looking at the breakdown of exposures and the client base (ie personal guarantees largely worthless) that 20/30% is written off the loan book by the time this is over. This is based on deflation, if the ECB start printing money the outcome could be better but I would not bet on it.

You know for years Anglo got away with it - it was all presented as a perfect plan whereas a lot of the development was mick fuckbody with land “howrya lads, how about a mixed used development here?” meeting 10 paddy fuckbodys with a bit of cash going coming in going “howrya lads, any ideas for our cash?” No surveys for demand, no detailed interrogation. And it spun out. They present it more corporately in the report but that was the model.

Hard to see where the capital OR lending is going to come from to buy the developments. Capital inadequacy, declining earnings, retail collapse, net emigration and all that.

So thats the NTMA gone. Should we sell AIB to save BOI?

Whats jumping off the page to me is the €7.5billion of hotel lending of which €4billion is in Ireland. That is a lot of hotels in Ireland - a sector that is about to go off the cliff. At least with office/retail space you can take lower rents or change the use pretty easily. But if no one is buying your bednights at an economic price your bunched and it is not as easy to convert to other uses.

Eh… Surely anyone interested would have bought at these prices already? You couldn’t give an Irish Bank away… If we could, we should definitely give anyway Anglo… :blush:

It’s the bloody merlot. I convinced myself that with polish and us asset it might be worth something. Sorry.

They are… unfortunately they’ll have a minus in front of them by the time this is finished.

You might also want to take a look at Bungaloid’s posts in the Anglo Accounts Published thread
viewtopic.php?f=46&t=18976
He’s a little worried about the derivatives book. Me too, but I know shit. He knows a fair bit (by the tone and tenor of his posts).

YM,

Generally strats would break the loans by attributes. Though the piece confirming the practice of roll up is interesting. I’ve a suspicion that the valuations they refer to is a theoretical value when the project is completed. Far from ideal.

I’m fairly sure that the interest accruing on such loans is run through the interest income each year rather than when the money is actually paid. This opens the possibility that they’re declaring profits on loans that will never be repaid. Ponzi, when you need to increase deposits to do this. It’s hard to quantify given the information available, but could be very large and it’s annual. This problem isn’t limited to anglo.

Meh

From the Sydney Morning Herald

The story came from Reuters and presumably will be syndicated all over the world. Ireland’s reputation is in tatters.

shouldt it be “rotten burough”?