It just shows that us Irish are compely mad about houses and have learned utterly nothing from the boom. I fear that those buying now at crazy prices are in danger of getting their fingers burned. This rise is brought about by a shortage of supply more than anything else. If supply returns , which it may do if prices continue to rise, then there could be another “soft landing” in near prospect. I think denial will be shorter lived next time.
and another group of dopes looking for a bailout…
Yes, given up alright.
Looking for the much famed 3 bed semi around D14//D16/D18 for a price we can afford, taking into consideration how much renovations would be needed, we’re way off.
We earn just north of 80k gross between us and we’ve two kids so we’re probably just not able to buy in an area like Sandyford or Ballinteer anymore, suddenly these areas are 'desirable SCD locations’ or other such nonsense. I don’t want to live in Ballsbridge, Blackrock or Killiney but where I grew up has been well and truly yuppified. It’s almost farcical.
We’ve decided to emigrate for 5 years or so. We can get well-paid jobs abroad in a number of locations.
We’ll see the lie of the land then but realistically, prices will only keep being silly from here on in, too many have a vested interest in that. The Irish are a naive people and this is best exemplified in their attitude to property. We’ll never have the much needed normal, functioning market.
We’ll most likely settle down the west where she hails from when we come home, I’m born and raised here but I refuse to pay the prices we see for basic habitation in what were lower middle class areas when I grew up.
yeah, pressure is on. Eldest kid starts school in less than 2 years. We live in a nice area now but our house is too small for an expanding family.
If we don’t get something by next Summer, then we either go out to commuter land or make do with the house we’re in (somehow!) which is the OH’s choice as it’s close to family.
And we’re (combined) well inside the top 10% of earners in the country with a big deposit but cannot find anything suitable in D6W/10/14/16 the past couple of years that would’nt break the bank between renovations etc.
Fook it, makes me sick
I think you are right, I don’t think the rise is sustainable, its just a matter of how long.
That is why half my brain is saying wait, they are still too expensive. The other half of my brain is obviously succumbing to the peer pressure and I am coming to an age where it might be now or never and a little touch of panic sets in. Maybe never buy and the world doesn’t end.
When you grew up Ireland was a pimple on the arse of Europe with a large civil service and pedestrian domestic business.
It is now a hub for global finance, tech and pharma - and all the accountants and solicitors that service those business.
Sorry, the game has moved on - and it is all about supply and demand. Very few large scale housing (not apartment) developments in the last 15 years outside of airport direction or Wicklow.
I have had to make a huge compromise on what I am buying - but I am allergic to a large mortgage and the stresses that entails.
What we did not have 2 years ago was major expansion plans from the tech and banking sectors. In fact we had huge uncertainty around Ireland’s tax status - that was the time to move.
To be honest it sounds like you are kidding yourself. You are not really in the market if you are being outbid on houses that still don’t tick all your boxes, you either have too many boxes to tick or a have too small a budget for your expectations.
Prices are only up 10-14%… are you being outbid by more than this?
We realised after much the same scenario of being outbid that we could not afford:
- 4 beds
- South facing garden
- Big garden
- Side Entrance
- Cul de sac
- Liveable condition
If we had realised this in 2011, we would have only had to drop one of the criteria, but we were ended up holding out and holding out and suddenly prices were going up in late 2012 and early 2013 and we had to compromise on 2 of the conditions… AND pay more than we had wanted to.
IMO, prices are up by 20-25% in the areas of SCD I’m looking at the past 2 years, not 10-14% as mentioned above
Have we not had significant job losses in banking with more to come?
If I’m coming across as ‘woe is me’ I certainly didn’t mean to give that impression. My point is, I certainly don’t think that prices in traditionally middle of the way areas are worth what they’re going for. This is not Ailesbury Rod or D6 red bricks we’re taking about which is where your high flying Accountants and Solicitors will want to live.
We plan to come home with a nice stash, on top of the money have currently and choose where we go from there. I refuse to get caught up in it all and I’d say there’s a significant cohort like me out there. Would I like something half decent in a half decent area? You betcha but it’s not going to happen and that’s that.
You’ve a very rosy outlook judging by what you’ve outlined above. I’m sure I don’t even have to talk to you about the banjaxed banks or the national debt. All is fine with a few more contract jobs in IT!
Congratulations on your house purchase, I hope you’re happy there.
Agreed, prices are up by far more than 10-14% in D14/16, glad somebody else sees it like this.
Open question. What stopped you from buying in 2011? No supply, or you felt that prices had more to fall?
I felt the 2011-2 prices were not bad value. I don’t feel stupid for not buying. It was just that there was not a good choice of properties.
The lack of supply was already making itself felt then. It just didn’t feed through into the panic prices people were paying when this second bubble became telegraphed in 2013.
This lack of supply is constrained only by the denial of sellers and some structural traps around the issues of negative equity and tracker mortgages. The houses are there but they are just not being released.
however denial on the part of sellers cannot continue forever.
Mrs. Moaner also accepts now that there will be a much better selection in the next 18 months, so we are settling into rental life now.
Conversely, we don’t want the hassle of another move soon even if a few properties come on in the spring.
Not a “woe is you”. I fully agree. The banking I am referring is IFSC not domestic. Most of the highfliers I know are trying to find semi’s in Blackrock as priced out of D4 - D6. Once you go above 1m you need a wedge of deposit and disposable to buy in. Point I was trying to make is we have a much broader “upper middle class” who are chasing homes in the same areas. Interesting to see if this spills to Delgany and the likes. My purchase is a massive compromise in the hope I can twist again in 5 years.
At the risk of appearing bullish, it’s quite possible that in the near-medium term rates could be down to 3%. That’s what they are in the UK for 80% trackers, and that’s off a 0.5% base rate.
The ECB base rate is 0.25% and there are little signs of growth in the Eurozone.
Obviously Irish banks are still so screwed as to require massive margins on SVRs, but how long will that last? 2 years? 5? 10?
Nobody knows what the future cash/debt dynamic will be, but at some point there will be more lending.
The Ireland I grew up in house price fluctuations were in line with inflation for most, except for certain enclaves in the major cities, because we were blighted by unemployment, ruined by emigration, plagued by corrupt politicians, shafted by a dysfunctional banking system and the major utilities and services were run by strike-mad unions.
How things have changed.
Prices are up far more than 14% in the areas we are looking at.
@garvas. We only sold in late 2011 so couldn’t buy before that.
There’s been about 15 of these ‘type’ houses sell in seabury malahide in the last 18 months (save for probably what you’re describing as a medium garden - which I’m sure you can compromise on) and Malahide would be consider a very decent (even posh) part of NCD. So where are you looking? You could get a 4 bed in Donabate, Swords and a few other areas of NCD for that money.
I think gavras’s point is a good one - either people hold steady in their beliefs/ride out the lack of supply or accept that compromise is the price to pay for not buying 18 months ago (I think Karlos broadly makes that point too)
50% being too picky
25% thinking prices would continue to fall
25% loan approval in 2011 was for sweet FA
The CSO shows 14% to sept in Dublin. What areas and what percentage? Is it just asking prices or is there any concrete examples?
CSO is mortgages only. I can tell you from looking at prices on my home.ie, they are up by 20-25% for 3 or 4 bed family houses in average enough areas of SCD