Anyone getting impatient yet?

I think that this has been touched upon before but is anyone out there suprised by how slow the crash is progressing. Considering that we are almost a year into an international credit crunch, rates are still rising, economic growth close to zero, unemployment on the up and the ISEQ down over 50% , should things be progressing a bit quicker?
Will we only see rapid price falls when the banks pull the plug on some big devellopers resulting in the firesale of unsold property? Rumour has it that they are going to continue lifesupport until Xmas . Given how dire the economic situation is, i would have thought we would be well past denial/fear phase, All thoughts welcome.

Impatient? Yes, but not to the point that it will influence my decision making process. I can afford to wait, worst that will happen is that I might have to rent for a bit longer than originally planned. Would prefer to buy before I hit the next age bracket for mortgage life insurance though 8)

I am starting to get bored, we have seen enough daft reports with gradual declines, enough economic headlines of gradual weakening conditions etc. I want blood, I want action, I want a bank run, I want a general election etc. etc.

This crash is getting stale.

Agreed. Practically nothing moving in the areas and price range I am looking for the last 6 months. :cry:

This has already been touched upon, we could be in for a painfully slow crash, exactly what we don’t’ need. Short and sharp then we can all just get on with our lives however I think we will be denied this as this is not of our making, wanting or doing. We are merely spectators on the good ship Future Gaze. Its crowd dynamics and slow motion real time. Yuck!

Que C&B :wink:

Not at all. It has been mentioned on numerous previous occasions on the Pin that the average property bust takes around 5 years to play out from peak to trough. Assuming the price peak was late 2006, we are less than 2 years into this one. I.e. relatively early days.

In the first 2 years of the UK 90s property bust, the drop in average nominal house prices was only 2%. We are well ahead compared to that ‘crash’ on that score and even in real terms (taking account of inflation) we we are showing comparable rates of decline.

See the graph at the URL below to see how the UK 90s bust played out. Of course this is just one example of how a property bust can play out, there is no guarantee we will follow a similar trajectory. … -crash.php

There is plenty of time for the crash to get crashier!

But house prices are only one factor in the decision to buy in. For me at least I am just as concerned as to what is going to happen in the general economy and society. No point in having cheaper houses if you don’t have job security or you’re in constant fear of high crime rates or the Government has to drastically increase tax rates just to balance the books (probably in tandem with declining services in return).

There’s lots of watching and waiting left to do.

Hey don’t worry… with Brian Cowen, as the new Taoiseach, things will probably go downhill way faster!

This guy lacks any kind of vision, or real solutions, to deal with the mess Ireland is in.

The newspapers have only recently started talking about a problem in the housing market. This means, in my opinion, that the crash has only begun.

Yes, getting majorly impatient - we sold in summer 07 and my wife is going to go mad if I dont stop stalling her from buying our next home.

Have a read of this.

**UK: Headlines from last property crash **

Yes. I’m gettting very very very impatient but I’ve got remedies that are highly releiving.

  1. I make price 2010 offers on places, generally that’s a 30 to 45 reduction off the current asking price and I watch how the auctioneers behave to thos offers. I see how they treat me and I make notes both on paper and in my mind about how I feel about them.
  2. I keep actively perusing the market for houses that look like they are good value. I keep note of findings and I educate myself about changes in the local market place.
  3. I feel positive that I did not buy in 2005 or 2006 or 2007 and keep in mind that prices are falling and are likely to continue to fall through next year into 2010 (in my opinion - who knows really, anything could happen including Bernanke coming for holidays with his money helicopter to Killarney next week to bail us all out…
  4. I read the weekly treesdontgrowtothesky data shots and see the meaning in real terms of the ongoing downward trend in property prices as well as the increasing choice in the market place. It’s only getting better and better.

I think that if you compare the speed of the crash in Ireland to that in the UK it’s pretty shocking. London was only peaking this time last year, but we already seem to be entering the fear stage here. Two weeks ago I was at a housewarming and the general consensus seemed to be “gorgeous house, but what a terrible time to buy.”

And I last Friday night I was in the pub, and everybody was talking about how they were either glad they hadn’t bought, but worried about their employment prospects. Or stiff upper-lipping that they’d bought but would manage to get by if they kept their jobs. One or two comments about a purchase not being too bad because new transport links were underway, but more hope than belief.

It is pretty stunning, they seem to have skipped the denial phase altogether. I was over in the UK over the weekend and BTL apartments were being repossessed left right and centre in the area I was visiting.

Perhaps its the Global Financial Crisis has focused the minds of the larger financial players??? The house drops started before this event but can only now be exacerbated by the events of liquidity issues thus making things more vicious.

Funnily enough the North reacted much more quickly too. The peak up here was around last June, but by about April this year everyone was accepting that the morkesh was fecked and now people are only wondering just when/where the bottom will be. In the south, more than two years after the peak, and probably 70% of the population is still insisting “it’s just a blip”.

And Nordies are just as property-obsessed as Southers, there are no folk memories of previous property crashes (just like the south, property up here IIRC “always went up” in nominal terms at least) and all the usual old VI guff was trotted out here too. Absolutely no difference culturally on the whole “MUST OWN PROPERTY!!!” obsession. Therefore I conclude that something else is causing the head-in-sand rampant Denial in the Republic.

There are a few reasons for this I guess. One is that Irish people have been absolutely conditioned to see buying a house as an investment to sell at the same price or at a loss really requires them to face up to their own ideas and beliefs and give up that bit of hope that they were doing well and made the right decisions.

A lot of Irish people seem to have negative views of renting and view it as a step backwards, rightly or wrongly.
I think this thread illustrates these points nicely.

She comments that it would kill her to think they didn’t get anything out of buying the house i.e. didn’t make a profit.
The last thing is that a lot of FTB would incur significant stamp duty costs on buying a new home and not be able to realise the larger deposit required for a new mortgage.
These factors together probably lead to a lot of people finally deciding (again rightly or wrongly) they are better off staying where they are and adjusting to the reality they won’t be living in the big house of their dreams anytime soon.

Another reason might be that in the UK there is information available on selling prices, whereas here everyone must just guess, which makes it a lot easier to put one’s head in the sand if desired. I don’t know if there are such figures for the North.

I don’t know meself. Been living down south for the last 17 years, I still haven’t really mentally adjusted enough to start actually paying attention to what goes on up here… :confused:

This kind of attitude doesn’t reflect particularly well on the Pin.

I would hope impatience if there is any comes from a desire to get this
over with, which is in everybody’s interests, not some desire for it to be as serious as possible so you have something exciting to watch on the evening news.

It’s in nobody’s interests EVER to have a run on a bank, and I’m not just saying that because I own a few BofI shares (not enough yet to even be worried about). You want a run on a bank for the sake of what? Entertainment?


I’m baffled sometimes that posters can get warned for supposed glee, but this sort of shit is considered ok.