Apartment 78 The Holly, Rockfield, Dundrum (-200k, -38%)

Was 510k

irishpropertywatch.com/sales … Co.+Dublin

Now 475k

daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=358134

I just laugh when I see these asking prices.

A price tag of less than 100k when the dust settles.

I wrote about the major oversupply in Dundrum in 2007. In 2009 the oversupply is truly shocking.

Wycham point, when finished, is supposed to have 520 units. It looks one third done. Have a look up at it when darkness falls. Tell me the completed units have sold even one quarter. Probably another 300 coming on line in the next few months. Now if the competed ones have sold so little you can imagine that the new ones are going to sell like soiled tampons.
So the question I’ve got is this. Since nobody wants to buy apartments any more and Dundrum has several hundred unsold what price would they sell at. I don’t know the answer to this because none of the newly built apartments have had their prices reduced by more that a few percent.
If the government brought in a tax on mothballing newly built properties then they would force the far from clever builders to sell at the price the market will accept. I mean what are these builders doing? Really. These apartments have been sitting with no interest from buyers for coming up to 2 years now. Do the builders think that the property market will kick start and the bubble will return? I have to assume they do, otherwise why keep the silly prices. They simply don’t want to sell until they can get back to making fortunes off of the misery of Ireland’s nieve young people. Well if that is the case feck them. They will wait out their solvency and then go bankrupt.

Lets talk about the availability apartments. The place we rent has been completed for more than two and half years and they are still trying to pawn off the unsold apartments.
Wyckham points like I said has a few hundred coming on line to join the load of completed unsold apartments. They are being rented now.
There are a rake of unfinished apartments hidden away down a small side road parallel to Dundrum shopping center. Walk to the new (and empty) Elverys. There is a stairs beside it. Head down those stairs and have a gawk.
Have a look at “The View” across the road from the Dundrum shopping center. One side of it is a big mirror. These have been competed about six months. There were feck all buyers at the 2006 prices so they have now removed all adverts for selling. They are now renting them. There can be only one explanation for this. The builders firmly believe that the uber bubble was not a market perversion and that prices will return to those levels. The prices during the uber bubble will never return. Prices will return to 3 times salary. The builder obviously intends to learn his lesson the hard way.

All these new rentals hitting the market has pushed the prices down an inordinately small amount. You would expect a complete collapse in the rental prices. Not so. this means there is some market manipulation going on. A small number of agents collaborating on fixing prices so the free market collapse does not occur. I am going to write a letter to the competition regulator and ask them to investigate because this is against the law and a nice fine may be needed to work out the blockage.

Last thing I’ll say is drive up Sandyford and have a look at the hundreds of empties. Then swing up to Rathfarnham check out Stocking wood. Now whip down to Blackrock and feast your eyes on all the empty units you’ll see on your journey. What is absolutely shocking is the fact that prices haven’t completely fallen through the floor. Anybody with an ounce of sense can see that we have a ginormous oversupply in brand new units. There has to be a reason prices haven’t collapsed yet. From the information I have I believe it is all down to the banks refusing to be honest with themselves. As sure as a stone has to fall to earth, property prices
will utterly collapse within a year. Not 5% or 10%. I’m taking more that 30% in a month or two. It will occur when an outsider like the IMF or German government step in. Our own government are prolonging the pain. They are doing all they can to stop our economy returning to competitiveness and facilitating the retarided thinking of our bank bosses.

I like the post BB but apart from your first 2 sentences, it’s off topic for the price drops forums. I recommend reposting it to one of the other boards as a new thread.

Now, back on topic folks!

Apt 78 The Holly is still 475k…

However, their neighbours in no. 86 (same size) are only asking 330k

myhome.ie/residential/search … AFIQ330013

Apt 78 The Holly is still asking 475k…

However, no. 69 The Holly (another 2 bed) has now come on the market asking just 295k

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -14/120428

I’ll be (very) generous and say it rents for €1,200 pm.
€1,200 x 12 months = €14,400 pa
€14,400 / €475,000 = 3.03% yield.

If I was to be realistic I’d say €1,100pm.
This brings the yield to 2.78%.

Ohh and that doesn’t take into consideration annual management fees.
This could reduce the yield down below 2.5%.

But we’re at the bottom !!! 8DD

I just moved out of one in Rockfield when I was handing back the keys to the EA he told me that the one next to us (recently emptied) was being re-done ( as if I did not notice the drilling) it seems that all apt were supplied with some pre-fab german toilets that are leaking all over the place (not ours at the time) but he did say that they ll replace the toilet there as well, so something to think about when buying in Rockfield.

Now €330k:daft.ie/1358134

This seems to have started at €530k.
From Proerty Bee:

No. 69 now asking €250k

Wow, I remember these at over €400k. A good buy at €200k.

€200k would give you a c.5% gross yield, so maybe some investors would be tempted by that. But I think most would look for sub 200k to be tempted. Fwiw, there are currently 4 2-beds on Daft for rent in Rockfield.

And what demographic of OO would buy a 2 bed apartment nowadays? The days when couples buy apartments are gone in my view, and no FTB who wants to trade up in the short-medium term (say c.5ish years) would buy because they can not be assured surplus equity when they come to sell. And trader-uppers with equity released are almost impossible to imagine being interested in an apartment.

So IMO the only market from OO’s for 1 & 2 beds are single people. On that basis, we’re looking at single FTB’s with salaries of no less than 60k to afford €200k (assuming they have a 20k deposit and the bank will give them 3x on their salary). Meh. Are there really that many of those people left nowadays? With the money and inclination for apartment living? I really don’t think so. Throw in the fact that Dundrum is just one of many, many locations in the city with surplus apartment stock and my honest view is that €200k is approaching the upper limit for almost any apartment in Dublin. Given Rockfield would not be in that very upper echelon of apartment, I still think €200k is too steep.

www.daft.ie/1575281

45 The Holly now on the market asking €199,950

85sqm but on the downside its on the ground floor

So if we assume €1,000pm rent (it’s a ground floor) …
Thats €12,000 pa.
Equating to a c6% yield.
This probably drops to c5% yield when additional buying costs (stamp, solicitors, 2nd home tax etc) as well as annual management fees are taken into consideration.

Beats the yields of the past, but not those of the future.

Were these Sec 23s ?

Another ground floor 2-bed - albeit in a different block - at Rockfield asking €335,000:

daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=574789

No sq. footage listed. And I see another non ground 2-bed asking €350,000.

As for renting, Mr. A’s €1,000pm might be optimistic as here are two 2-beds in Rockfield - 2nd and 4th floor - asking €1,100 and €1,125.

daft.ie/searchrental.daft?id=1015183
daft.ie/searchrental.daft?id=1006463

If they clear at €1,000, which seems to be the target price, then the ground floor is under pressure to equal that. But at €950 x 11 months rent that would be €175,000 for a 6% yield on the ground floor. Which may very well be the clearing price on a €199,000 asking.

As much of a bear as I am, I can’t help feeling there is some sanity to those numbers. €475pm rent pp is manageable on a €25,000 salary pp. On the other side of the transaction, if you had €175,000 sitting in the bank wouldn’t these number be somewhat appealing?

The departed and lamented BertieBasher’s post above from March '09 suggested that Dundrum would experience a glut of apartments on the markets. As of today, Daft lists 16 for sale - including one listing each for multiple units of 1, 2 and 3 beds available under AH at Wyckham - and 23 for rent.

Dunno, that does not stike me as a meltdown, although maybe I’m wrong on that and 40-ish apartments for sale/rent on Daft alone is a lot for Dundrum. I really don’t know.