April Live Register 'does not make happy reading':up 3k?

RTE’s David McCulloch on the 6.1 News just said this as a quote from a senior government source. The figures are being released Friday morning.

should be available soon here:
rte.ie/news/6news/

It is part of the story on the government Lisbon Treaty campaign.

Another record I suspect :frowning: . This is unsurprising in view of the ongoing contraction in building starts is it not ??

From my experience the number of lay offs in the building industry is bottoming out. Most of the downsizing by builders and subcontractors has already occurred. Interestingly many subcontractors and sub-sub-contractors with work have retained a smaller number of foreign workers and released irish workers. Many of these irish workers would be retained as self-employed labour only subcontractors so wont show up in redundancy figures. I would expect many suppliers to the building industry to accelerate layoffs. I heard of one trade supplier looking for 2 redundancies from each branch - has 40-50 branches throughout the country.

I wouldn’t agree. When the number of starts = number of completions then the bottoming out process will be complete.

They’re still completing about 4,000 a month at the moment, annualises to 50k.

I don’t believe there will be 50k completions in 2009. It’ll be closer to 30k. So I think there’s more jobs to go, unfortunately.

I have just been told that the Live Register has jumped by about ( riduculous number ) in one month but thats *not *from the same source as my Feb prediction so I am about 80% sure not 100% sure.

( now only 50% confidence in that source, will not use again )

delete all refs to this figure.

2Pack, that is an astounding figure. Last months (Feb) was a record at 8507. Last months brought us from 5.2% to 5.5%. This rise will bring us to greater than 6%. In the space of 3 months. No other word for it, it is a bloody meltdown.

rte.ie/news/2008/0404/economy.html?rss

Taken from the CSO stats at www.cso.ie.
Just to note, figures are form 1998 -2008 (March).

https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/temp/LRAM12008430365069259.jpg

Wow 17K - certain places in the sticks must be really feeling it…

This is not from my very best source mind.

My personal guess based on other data sets is still fecking dismal.

11,300

Isn’t this a typical bad news management strategy?

You ‘leak’ a figure much higher and then when it’s reported ‘offically’ you make the number lower.

Big companies do it all the time when announcing job losses.

Still 11,300.That is shocking to the average joe even…In 3 months our unemployment rate will have increased by about 1.5%.

Who will be the first in the media or print to call a recession coming,any bets!!

Nothing has been reported yet , wait till Friday .

I removed the higher figure, my source did some checking on it and admit they are wrong

The lower figure I will stay with .

While it has increased by 1.5 percentage points, another way to look at it is that it has increased by 40+% - 140 odd thousand to 210 odd thousand.

But that is quite a bearish way to look at it :wink:

Didn’t Joan Burton mention something about it last Friday and there was a lady on the Sunday business show on about spending who said “In a recession, which we are not in by the way…”
Eunan King reckons there’s not even a slow down and Brendan Keenan says it doesn’t matter anyway. Cheers Brendan, the tax take doesn’t even cover the running of the country as it is but it doesn’t matter a witt if there’s less to go around next year. :unamused:

News reports on Newstalk this afternoon were suggesting unemployment figures will be above 200K!

Blue Horseshoe

Considering it was 198K in march, just 200K or even close to it, would be shockingly good.

Wow what a risky call by Newstalk seeing as that it was 199,900 last month! :slight_smile:

Headline story in the Times says live register up 47k in the last year. Anyone know what that would make the April monthly rise at?