April Live Register 'does not make happy reading':up 3k?

Just looked back on 07 figures. Up about 3k for April if it is the raw rather than seasonally adjusted figure.

Jan 07 158,752
Feb 07 159,399
Mar 07 155,869
Apr 07 154,319
May 07 154,010
Jun 07 166,363
Jul 07 174,593
Aug 07 174,206
Sep 07 160,652
Oct 07 157,449
Nov 07 161,722
Dec 07 170,376
Jan 08 181,449
Feb 08 189,485
Mar 08 197,992

Meh. 154+47=201K

A 3K rise? That can’t be right.

The seasonal factor of the early Easter may have screwed the figures up. You probably have to look at March/April averaged out.

That 0.1% increase would translate into a circa 3k increase in the seasonally adjusted figure.

3K- that’s a very low increase. 2pack - 11,300/17,000?? :wink: :question:

very low, must read the figures at 11 to see where I went wrong :slight_smile:

That IT report doesn’t make sense.

Exactly my thoughts. It implies a 2k fall on the unadjusted claimant count! I am all for giving an honest assessment on a poor economic outlook but I equally do not like spinning an overly negative picture as this article at face value is attempting.

I think I was caught on an extrapolation of a particular region and no seasonal adjustment .

17000 new ‘clients’ were 'encountered ’ by the DSW in April but this included nearly 6000 new PPS numbers allocated to immigrants which were not claims of course …my bad :frowning:

I was wondering whether this article is just a complete balls up. As in, did the reporters hear the rumours flying over the last few days and went to the CSO press release and picked up last months data.

It doesn’t tally perferctly, but the claim that the number increased by 42,000 over the last 12 months was the result for March. Note that the level they quoted (196,500) is lower than the March figure (original or seasonally adjusted).

Live register fell by 2394 in April to 195, 598. They seem to be blaming the early Easter for the high volatility in the figures between March and April.

finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews … 3469.shtml

That would seem to be correct.