Are €1M+ houses in Dublin tanking?

EA I know personally told me yesterday they’re seeing a massive drop in prices in this bracket in 2015. She says down 20% and dropping.
I’ve been watching the market like a hawk (not looking at this price though) and don’t know if there’s a pattern yet.
I wonder is it correct

Funny you should bring this subject up as I heard anecdotally only two days ago, a house in Rathgar or Rathmines can’t remember which!) was up for 1.5m not so long has since dropped and repriced at a cool 1m. This would be a large residence and multi tenanted type affair.

Definitely they are falling, and have been for over a year now. It has been talked about a bit on here in fact. However the odd house if resonably priced will still have intrest. 5 Albany road has an offer 50% above it’s asking and Aylesbury on Adelaide road and 29 Cowper road both bet their asking by about 15% but these are one offs.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=64614&hilit=Trouble

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -6/3323047
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -6/3323129

Both of these dropped by 400k on the 19th, both from excessive prices though:)

This might be true in some areas of Dublin (e.g., Malahide, Carrickmines) and less true in other areas.

What I heard related to the leafy suburbs of D 4 and 6. I had seen the earlier thread about 2M+ but didn’t think the same falls were happening in relation to the 1M+ market.

Not seeing it in D4 / D6 myself

Examples
10 Ormond Road, asking 1,450k, sold 1,585k in August.
sherryfitz.ie/residential/for-sale/43193
irishtimes.com/life-and-styl … -1.2143829

10 Greenfield Park, sold for asking 1.2m in Sept
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -4/3103230

46 St Kevins Park
Asking 1.5m, sold for 1.55m
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -6/3070458

3 Clyde road when sale agreed within 2 weeks (last asking €2.95m).

13 Clyde Road going to auction next week with AMV €2.5m

€1.2 was €100k under the initial €1.3 ask. Took quite some time to sell too.

I think the market has probably picked up a bit in recent months… seemed slower at the start of the year but then again it is a total mixed bag. Find it very difficult to make out if things are going well or bad and naturally the bidding just goes crazy on certain houses.

Surprised 3 Clyde Road sold so quick considering the ask (€965/sqft) given it needed total refurb, but then again it is one of the only houses left on the street with its full garden, so I suppose it has a rarity factor. Bad orientation though and the buyers are in it for €500k for a refurb.

Ok. Was hoping she was right and we’d see the trickle down. That said she was at pains to say that the whole market is completely different in the different price points. Up to 8/900 she was saying it was all going relatively strong but the 1M+, she says, are dropping. All a bit unscientific.

I don’t see this price bracket going up anytime soon though.
What do you think?

I agree with you on the last points – the SCD +1m market is not likely to rise … but IMHO also not likely to fall. Just stay fairly flat for awhile I would guess.

13 Clyde Road failed at auction … no bids … now asking €2.35m.

myhome.ie/residential/brochure/13-clyde-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4/3322605

It may be that at the lofty heights of ~2m things are cooling down a bit, but I’ve yet to see much sign of weakness around the 1m level (would be delighted to be proven wrong though).

I’m looking further out in Dublin 18 and have been keeping eye on this one…

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … in/3316431

Nice house if late-90s-mock-period is your thing and I love the barn, but but interior needs a refresh, windows look like they need replacing, it’s only 225sqm, the edge of the house is ~50m from high voltage overhead lines, the garden is peppered with septic tank vents and overlooked by a massive pylon.

I’d have thought those factors (plus the general remoteness for city folk used to services on their doorstep and the CBI regs) would dampen the ardour, but whilst bidding started around 900k it’s now over 1m.

The Old School House had another price drop to a sniff under 1.6m recently, and that’s 372sqm with a C3 BER and looks better.
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … 18/3148696

Dunno what bidding is at on that as it’s way out of my range.

I’ve tried doing some site + structure value calculations (a.l.a observer’s posts) on Dublin 18 properties but there’s not really enough flow to generate good data and I don’t think the formula deals well with crappy structures which would be better knocked and rebuilt.

The closest I’ve come to is 250k + (250k/acre) + 2k/sqm. That would put Barnaslingan at 1m and The Old School House at 1.5m, but whilst the bidding on Barnaslingan is going up the price on TOSH is going down, despite being nicer.

Maybe this is CBI-induced price compression or maybe my formula is crap.

I think that is fair analysis Eschatologist.

2,000k per sq m is right for new build (all in, +VAT, plus fees, plus fitted out inside, plus landscaping) of good standard is right. If you start adding “architectural features” (i.e. major glass, more steel over corners etc.) it goes to 2,500-3,000. If you go for a very high standard internal fit-out (i.e. Paul Brazil), then it goes higher.

Ironically however, new(er) builds out of town are one of the worst places to be. Too expensive for many buyers who are forced out of town (can’t afford a full good standard new build, rather buy an older house and just re-fit the kitchen), and the richer ones want to buy their own site of their dreams and build to their own tastes.

Longacres in Portrane was an excellent example of this. An incredible design and build quality on 12 acres (with massive pool) that sold for a song (I cannot overstate this enough - would not cover cost of build, never mind land).
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=51819

I think that this unfortunate situation will hit the owners of Bishop’s Value House who are trying to price as cost of build + cost of land.
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=64516

Can’t tell if that was an intentional witticism or a hilarious slip! Well done either way :smiley:

Wait … a house fails at auction and the owners/agent immediately have enough cop-on to ***reduce ***the price ?

Pretty sure this was mentioned in the bible as a sign of the end times or something.

Was just about to re-post that.

We had three major upper-end auctions this year (EAs try an avoid upper-end auctions as the market is so thin. Not as easy to trap an overseas £ buyer in an auction).

  1. 61 Eglinton Road - no bids, price raised after to 3.85m (since disappeared).

  2. Langara House - no bids, price held at AMV after 2.5m

  3. 13 Clyde Road - no bids, price dropped to 2.35m

That is a trend !

The upper-end of the market is paper thin. There just really aren’t that many buyers with +2.5m (and fewer banks wanting to get involved in +1m mortgaes). And this is with hardly any real foreclosure activity in the upper end from Irish banks. Some EAs have had great wins nailing ex. Pats and foreigners in the private market (you know how they do this). But the auctions have been aweful. A price drop after an auction (and by Lisney, whose style is to under-price the AMV), is a first.

:laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

I am interested in your analysis and you may be correct. But if a market is very thin then doesn’t that mean that it is very difficult to know whether it is headed up or down? With a “thick” market there are many buyers and sellers and plenty of transactions so it is possible to see where it is headed. When the market is thin then no one knows the true situation?

thin market = volatility