Does the land registry make numbers available anywhere or the like ?
Only estimate we have is mortgage draw downs published by the IBF and PWC. The next release is due in September.
Unfortunately the Property Registration Authority (PRA)(Land registry) is still operating in the twentieth century, so we will have a while to wait before they start publishing statistics on the number of property transactions.
I took a look at the IBF Mortgage data and re-organized it and re-formatted it on Excel just to dig into the numbers a little more in order to answer this most important of questions.
A few interesting things come out of this data:
- The peak by number of **purchase **transactions occurred in Q3 of 2006. By a purchase transaction, this is an actual mortgage issued relating to the purchase by FTB, RIL or Mover. I am not including here re-mortgages or top-ups which in general don’t contribute to an actual sale of a property.
This number was 29,884 no. of purchase mortgage transactions made in this Q3 of 2006.
2. The Q1 2008 data shows that there were 13,299 no. of such purchase mortgage transactions made .
I make it that the market is back, in Q1 of 2008, by approximately 55% number of purchase mortgage transactions from peak bubble, Q3 2006.
I note that the Q1 2008 numbers do not include the interest rate increases by both the Banks and the ECB that were occurring during Q2, nor the arrival of the “Recession” as per the ESRI think tank report. It will be very interesting to see what the numbers reveal at that stage…
Now admittedly comparing one quater, especially Q1(winter), with Q3(autumn selling season), is not really fair. Neither however is a government which seems disinterested or beligerent or cosy enough not to release this data more plainly to the public.
Another interesting outcome is the massive reduction between Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 of the number of mortgages being issued for purchases. This shows between these two quarters a reduction of approximately 31%. Again I do believe that part of this is explainable by the winter but it’s still in itself a very large reduction in the number of mortgage purchase transactions.
The simplified table is below.
If someone knows how I can post the full excel data for public consumption on-line then I will do that.
I’ve also checked the valuation of purchase mortgages between Q3 2007 peak and Q1 2008, which shows valuation back by 51%.
Thanks GB for the link.
A minor correction - Peak bubble by number of purchase transactions was Q4 2005 with 31,699. Peak bubble by total value of purchase transactions was Q3 2006.
One other interesting point from the data. The average loan value for FTBs and movers is still increasing. How does this tally with average house prices falling?
Does it demonstrate a trait of the property buying public. Are people still borrowing their absolute max in order to buy a better property? In other words, rather than being delighted that they don’t have to borrow as much to buy a home, they are more delighted that their max loan buys them a better property.
One option is to post the file to a file sharing service (see here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File_hosting_service for lots of options). Then post the link to the file back here on the forum.
It all depends on to whom the info is available. If you are the Minister for Finance or a high-up in the Revenue, then yes, there is information available.
Stick FOI requests into relevant bodies. Maybe contact that FG TD Varadkar to do it, he seems to be keen on FOI requests to get on the info the government and their cronies don’t want the rest of us to know at this point in time.
if it’s an FTB paying in cash with no mortgage then there’s no revenue or bank involvement. Only the land registry would have the full story, since only the title change would be listed.
Unless I am wrong, actually thinking about it - I am, since Revenue would have to be told to clear them as an FTB and it’s probably a stamp value of €0.0]
Thansk Green Bear for the link to IBF data.
Thanks Gilrow for the correction, I had not collected the 2005 data during my first analysis.
Thanks unsure for the pointer to media file sharing on-line.
Anyhow, I’ve updloaded the data to MediaFire web-hosting and produced 3 no. of charts.
- First chart shows the changes in numbers of PURCHASE mortgages issued by Quarter since 2005.
- Second chart shows the changes in total value of PURCHASE mortgages by quarter since 2005.
- Third chart shows the changes in average value of purchase mortgage by quarter since 2005. This last chart shows something that I did not expect. It shows that the average value of a mortgage issued for a PURCHASE since Q1 2005 to Q1 2008 actually peaked in Q1 2008!. Taken together with the other information, this seems to show that even though much fewer purchase transactions were actually occurring recently that the value of those purchase transactions was higher than ever before.
It seems that the VIs have saved the best wine 'till last!
A picture speaks a thousand words and all that…;
it’s the first image that seems to be so different from the general message that’s been transferred on this site.
It has me questioning whether I’ve made a mistake with the data analysis? While the other two graphs (number of mortgages for purchases and total value of mortgages for purchases) show significant decline, since end 2005/2006, the average value of a mortgage used for purchase continues to rise and rise as if the property market never gave up!
This is the most interesting graph, by a long way, IMHO.
It indicates that the mortgage funds used to purchase, on average, have peaked during Q1 2008.
This in some part indicates that costs of purchase of houses, i.e. the price, was actually rising to just 5 months ago.
Like I said before they saved the best wine till last (, or, at least until the last most recent data(Q1 2008), who really knows what happened in Q2 2008?)
It appears that persons have been taking out mortgages of approximately 7 times the average income (I’m assigning here that average gross incoime is approximately 40,000) when purchasing.
If the AAM folks, and Daft guys from 2006 get this, they’ll be claiming that they’ve had it right all along.
Prices only go up! It’s always a good time to buy!
Could this just be a dead cat bounce of sorts?
Where the people who are in the market to buy now are of the mindset that now must be a good time to buy.
Then it’s likely that these people are probably stretching themselves as far as possible to get as high up the ladder before it all picks up again.
Maybe, but first show me the “dead cat” part of the data trend? For 5 quarters in a row this data has been rising.
Generally, this trend is of the up, up and away (with the birds!) sort…
There are a couple of dips here and there but nothing substantial thus far.
When will there be a substantial dip? Will there be one?
Q1 of 2008 may have higher average mortgage rates, but there are fewer buyers, particularly FTB´s. This may be increasing the average as FTB’s would contribute to the lower end of the scale (I think)?
Is it possible to get the average mortgage amount per each category -i.e. FTB’s, Mover Purchasers, and Investment Lettings? That would be interesting and might indicate which area is pushing up the average quarter after quarter…(maybe one more than the other → optomistic investors vs. FTB’s…)
Yes, the data does show that less, of the smaller number of mortgages being take out for PURCHASES, are recently being taken out by FTB, more (of the mortgates for PURCHASES) are now being taken out by RIL (with Mover Purchasers also declining by a similar proportionate amount to the FTB decline).
Take a look at the link which shows the full data including the extrated charts.
How so? We only have the average loan figure. I believe it tells us nothing about the LTV of any purchase.
Thats about all the facts we have.
OK, so remove all the investors from the calculation, the loan values are still increasing.
If they can’t sell them, they ain’t trading up. This isn’t 2005 where owning 2 PPRs was a good idea! The banks are worried about people with 1 mortgage let alone 2. They’re not in the figures.
Can’t see why this should be more apparent in Q1 2008 than Q1 2007 or before.
It’s certainly not a straightforward relationship. But there are links that should be trendable. The price of a house is reflected in the cost of the mortgage. If mortgages are cheap, mortagages are bigger and house prices go up. Perhaps. what we are seeing is the fact that even though house prices are falling, mortgages are still cheap. Interest rates are still very low. People still have money. In an earlier post, I suggested that loan vallues are not necessarily a function of house prices but a function of earnings. People change their desired purchase before they change their desired loan.
I think that loan values falls will really take off not just when people need to sell, but when unemployment, falling or static wages and higher mortgage rates combine to cut so-called affordability. Nothing new there! Will this be in Q2 2008 figures?
Also , mortgages drawn down in 2008 could relate to places bought off plans in 2006/2007. A friend bought off plans in summer 2005 and didnt get to move in till summer 2007 as builders kept delaying the finish date and the contract didnt have any set date to finish by.
I think this is the key.
also if builders are being forced to move from a loan to a btl type mortgage on the properties perhaps that has something to do with it.