Are numbers available anywhere of house sales ?

I think I can see your logic…purchasers are supplying less of their own money into the property because the loan would cover more of it. Hence a higher LTV. I’m suggesting that buyers don’t yet behave like that and in fact what is happening is that they are still putting all their cash in + the loan from the bank and buying a bigger or better property. The banks started to look at LTVs at the end of 2007 and it’s likely, for new purchases, LTVs should be falling. LTV for the total housing stock is no doubt higher as values fall.

My point about removing investors relates to the table showing the average loan value for FTBs and Movers increasing in any event.

Movers with Equity…You’re dead right. The very fact that they’re not in the figures is increasing the average.

Why are first time buyers still borrowing more money on average to buy cheaper property? I’m wondering if they’re not buying the cheapest property but are trading up in quality without the use of a ladder. For the Dublin region…apartments in the commuter belt are being ignored in favour of houses in the commuter belt which are less favoured than houses closer in to the city.

I think that might be an important factor alright.

Some more graphs on trends in mortgage numbers and prices:

https://www.mediafire.com/imgbnc.php/444742f1ab6f9f9e59640ea3ff5f464a5g.jpg

https://www.mediafire.com/imgbnc.php/42904527d2dc2e98b8ce33134b0ae49a5g.jpg

Its going to take a looooooonnnnnnnnng time to get thru 300,000 empties !

Yes, yes, a very long long time indeed.

Based on the above, I’m thinking of a maximum 50,000 mortgages being issued this year for purchases.

I guess that maybe another 10,000 purchases will be funded without mortgages.

That makes about 60,000 mortgages being used for purchases.
So that’s 6 years to take up all of the empties.

Then again not all of the empties would be for sale anyway, some people do like to have 2 houses, one in use the other empty (e.g. holiday homes, city pads etc.).
But nevertheless the data above gives all the indications of a market slowly disentigrating.
we’re now at about 30% of the activity for purchases (based on mortgages for such) since end 2005.

Not all mortgages would be for new houses

As ewd3 says your forgetting the sale of 2nd hand houses.

The other factor is; are there 50k people out there that can get (or indeed want) a mortgage ?

If we stop building houses entirely for at least 2 years we might just end up with a decade long slump in the house market. Otherwise god alone only knows what will happen.

The numbers just get more depressing everytime I look at them. :cry:

Perhaps a more relevant comment would read:
“Not all mortgages would be for empty houses.”

Both are correct but perhaps the second tells us that the empties are going to remain a fact of the Irish property scene for a long long time to come.

That’s how it is it seems.

From the data the average purchase drawdown (a purchase being either FTB, RIL or MB) is falling now for 3 successive quarters.
That’s fantastic news for buyers as it firmly places the ball in our court.

The data below is also probably the most reliable factual data that’s at hand at the moment.
(Of courst that is facts coming from the IBF whose membership lately have had various issues).

The trend over the last 4 quarters for which data is available appear to indicate an approximate 10% decline in value per annum.

Actually, from my perspective the numbers here are getting better and better every time that I look at them.
This is the correction of a corruptly led anomaly that’s been plaguing this country so much so that I could not afford to purchase a reasonable house in my place of work 3 years ago and eventually had to leave that job.

Right now,
The numbers just get more pleaseing everytime I look at them. :smiley: :nin

Given the collateral damage that ‘fixing’ our economy is going to do to your’s, mine, & every other tax payers standard of living, I’m not particularly optimistic that home ownership is any nearer for me than it was two years ago !