Sure - and in our new environment I trust a bank as being somewhat balanced - of course only Analysts on AIB / banking will pick it up - I doubt the vested interests
From the CEO
Our very competitive mortgage offers, coupled with the increased
activity in the mortgage market, have resulted in AIB providing
more mortgages to customers’ year on year. Our market share of
mortgage drawdowns in the Republic of Ireland grew by 6% in
the first quarter of the year to 39%. Customer drawdowns were
€ 0.8 billion, which was 61% higher than this time last year.
Notwithstanding the significant increase in activity, we believe
that the macro-prudential measures introduced by the Central
Bank of Ireland (CBI) are likely to have a material dampening
effect on house prices and mortgage lending in 2015.
I believe if Seabury dropped to the circa €350K levels there would be a lot more interest and in turn drive prices back up hence creating a false floor of around €400K. It needs a couple of sales closer to 350 than 400 and a general negative media message and public sentiment to drive prices down.
The ‘marginal areas’ are Lissadel Wood & Waterside, both new modern estates with no front gardens (some with no back gardens) and a style that isn’t to everyone’s taste. The only other 3 bed close by in is Killeen which is still asking €450K (dropped from €465K).
Now, I would have thought these houses would stay around the 350k mark or even rise slightly as I expected them to appeal to FTB’s and even some trader-uppers (from apt’s perhaps) who were stung by the new CB rules.
But no, they are showing a fall of 12% or so from the March sale. And people on here expected it would be houses in the 400k to 600k mark that would really be impacted by the CB rules
Could this be a sign of the market as it stands and of things to come!
Is it just me or has the recent-ish fall in prices in the SCD area come to an end?
Yeah, some asking prices still falling but the actual selling prices being achieved are ‘sticky’ and not going to far off those from 2014.
Went to a viewing today and as it was 5th viewing in as many weeks, I expected the frothy price to be coming down. But was told by EA it’s got a bid of 3% under asking which really surprised me.
I have tried for some time to guesstimate the ‘normal’ number of sales to be expected in Dublin in a year - I come up with figures between 20 and 26000 per year (based on the percentage of houses expected to turn over each year in other jurisdictions) which suggests that Dublin has some way to go as there were 14000 sales last year. Conservatively I would think that sales will increase by at least 30% this year suggesting a figure around 18000 which gets us near the lower end of my guesstimate.
It seems that supply isn’t clearing at the moment (perhaps because its crap, or overpriced - perhaps there is no demand - it’s probably impossible to tell) - normally there would be a surge in available properties in September and I will be surprised if this doesn’t happen. One interesting tell tale sign is that I haven’t received anything from EAs in the last few months saying that they are looking for properties like mine - that would normally happen every couple of months and especially just before a major selling season.