Asking Prices - Worrying developments


#1023

Drive past this house on a regular basis on my way to work. Noticed the for sale sign had been removed so had a look at the PPR.
EA didn’t even bother to hide the price drops.

myhome.ie/priceregister/3-nu … lin-360915

Property History:
7th Oct 14 Added to MyHome.ie
30th Oct 14 Price change : €565K -> €535K
29th Jan 15 Price change : €535K -> €480K
27th Mar 15 Price change : €480K -> €445K
30th Mar 15 Price change : €445K -> €455K
3rd July 15 Sold €422,000.00

Price decrease of €143k in 9 months.


#1024

Of course its the sale price rather than asking price that matters but to say that asking prices are completely irrelevant would be incorrect in my opinion.

I don’t see how a sale 6% below asking price can be viewed as anything but incrementally positive. Incrementally not majorly. Imagine how you’d be moaning if the price rises had increased and the inflated asking price has held or sold above asking (as we saw through last year). It shows that sentiment is turning. As a regular pinster, i’m sure you’re aware that the consesnus is that we’re stating to see property prices roll and move lower, I would say its erroneous to suggest that they have fallen off a cliff however.

As a caveat, I don’t own property in either area but like it or not, considering just the North, Malahide and Clontarf have sustainably commanded a premium for a number of tangible and intangible reasons. The bottom line being that most would conclude that there are far worse places to raise kids and still be in touching distance of Dublin city centre. In light of this, its unlikely that you’re going to see Malahide or Clontarf semi-d’s lead the charge to lower prices and “value”.

They will however follow in due course if the downward pressures remain over the coming months (pick you reason - CB rules, “no value”, repossessions, inventory, sentiment etc…). In my personal opinion, houses in the €500-800k price range are the ones that are really going to be hit.

If you’re comparing prices and market conditions to this time last year, I don’t think there’s any comparison. There’s no rush to “buy now” and the froth has massively been taken out. The autumn selling season will be extremely telling and may be the catalyst for a significant 5% correction in prices, alternatively, we may continue to see stock build throughout the remainder of the year with the correction not coming until 1H 2016. The question being, is this a flatlining/-5% event or start of another downward cycle that will see prices down 25% or so over the next 24-months.

I’m hoping for the latter, as someone sitting on the sidelines looking to buy, but its going to be a case of waiting and seeing. All the indicators, such as Seabury coming in below asking, or the Foxfield properties in Raheny, or a series of properties in Clontarf. Value; not really but improving!


#1025

I wouldn’t disagree with most of what you are saying. However I personally don’t read too much into asking prices. We have been looking at houses in the Malahide/ Swords area for the last 3/4 months and having discussed prices and the local market with a number of estate agents during that times I have realised that there is no ‘one approach’ to asking prices prices. Some agents price lower to gain interest and hopefully a bidding war, some price higher hoping to get one party to pay the higher price. Some asking prices are dictated by the vendor 'house down the road went for X last summer so mine is worth X+ y%. Also some agents will reduce the price quicker than others if there is no or little interest.

To give you an example, we are currently looking at a house that is asking 410K. When I said to the agent the price was on the high side (agent is known for going with higher asking prices so was seeing if they would admit this) they said it has been priced at this level because the vendor saw a similar house sold for 400K last year. If we do make an offer it will be in the region of 365K and I wouldn’t be paying over 375K.

I have come up that prices based on the PPR and what other houses in the area are currently going for, bidding etc. So to me the asking price is really irrelevant.


#1026

Totally concur. You’ll have a view on what a property is worth to you at any one point in time - be it investment yield, build/extension price or based on relative sales. You’ll also have a fundamental view of “value” for a property where it would be a no brainer if you’re looking to make a purchase with a 20+ year view.

For me the fundamental value point for most properties in Malahide is -25% so I’m happy to sit back and wait for prices to trend towards this point on sentiment unless a unique and truly exceptional property comes on the market.

I’d argue that the competition in the €200-400k range means that you’ll have an affordability floor to properties there.

With regards estate agents, it’s incredible how much garbage and contradictory information you get off them - quite often on the same property if you leave it long enough. “Foreign bidder, truly exceptional property, other bidders, owners will probably accept xyz etc…” only for them to come back a few weeks later to be like “so what price would you consider it at, are you still interested?” Look it’s there job to shift a property ASAP, and to try and get as much as possible for the vendor so you just need to be conscious of that motive.

Happy hunting and hope you find something that works for you soon.


#1027

Agree asking price is irrelevant in what it is worth to you. But if the asking was €475k (literally to make up a number), then that is going to influence opening bids and how others would bid. This is irrespective of your fundamental view that the house is worth €375k.

You need to get to a point where both the buyer and seller are happy to trade. If the asking price is truly reflective on what the vendor believes the property is worth (rightly or wrongly), then it could be a long slog to find middle ground where you’re both happy.

In this case, the asking price is irrelevant to what the property is worth/direction of market pricing, but it is very relevant to getting a transaction completed and you moving into your dream home (which is most people’s goal unless they’re buying as an investment).


#1028

13 Castle Lawns is a great example of what you’re talking about.

Initial high asking price of €410k taken to €390k and now to €380k. Last sale price on estate was mid 2013 at €312k. So still lots of middle ground to see where this transacts. No way is €380k value, but obviously you are seeing some lowering of expectations by the vendor.

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … in/3154446

For what it is worth, “a bid at asking price will secure the property” :slight_smile:


#1029

:smiley: The man in the shiny suit is always good for a laugh.

I wonder are vendors mad or are they ill advised by the EA at the outset? (I’m sure it’s a mix overall).

That house needs loads of work, most of it cosmetic but you’d still sink 30k into it I reckon. There’s no BER and windows are an expensive job - I’d need to replace those to live there as I’m sure most would.

Even if it sold for €350k - €360k you’d be near €400k for a nice comfortable house your happy with.

I guess I’m coming from the point of view whereby I started this thread at €320k for a ‘done’ house. We were looking when they were circa €300k before ultimately moving elsewhere.

It really still seems to depend on particular house, particular location. I’ve not really seen any evidence of an overall PPR fall for seabury but I expect a small one. I just can’t seem them going below €350k (still that level would be welcome) again given the demand.

As you’ve said earlier its the €500k+ bracket that will be hit. You could easily see the likes of Gainsborough back to €450k from the €500k+ of late.


#1030

I think the experience of the last 5-years is likely to mean that substantial downward moves for Seabury are unlikely. Again, comes back to long term quality place to bring up kids. I think to see that big move down, you’re going to need to see prices really push down in the more marginal areas.


#1031

I spoke to a SCD agent this AM

said they had a good summer with some stuff clearing - felt market was “flat-lining” peaked April to June 2014 – a lot trickier since but no real change in 2015

interesting commentary from AIB re the effect of the new mortgage rules today


#1032

Do you have a link? I can’t seem to find anything.


#1033

Sure - and in our new environment I trust a bank as being somewhat balanced - of course only Analysts on AIB / banking will pick it up - I doubt the vested interests

From the CEO

Our very competitive mortgage offers, coupled with the increased
activity in the mortgage market, have resulted in AIB providing
more mortgages to customers’ year on year. Our market share of
mortgage drawdowns in the Republic of Ireland grew by 6% in
the first quarter of the year to 39%. Customer drawdowns were
€ 0.8 billion, which was 61% higher than this time last year.
Notwithstanding the significant increase in activity, we believe
that the macro-prudential measures introduced by the Central
Bank of Ireland (CBI) are likely to have a material dampening
effect on house prices and mortgage lending in 2015.

investorrelations.aib.ie/content … t-2015.pdf


#1034

Agree with this point. In the example I gave I think the vendor’s expectations will prevent a deal being done (with me at least).

Happy hunting as well (once you’re not looking at the same places as me :slight_smile:)


#1035

I believe if Seabury dropped to the circa €350K levels there would be a lot more interest and in turn drive prices back up hence creating a false floor of around €400K. It needs a couple of sales closer to 350 than 400 and a general negative media message and public sentiment to drive prices down.

The ‘marginal areas’ are Lissadel Wood & Waterside, both new modern estates with no front gardens (some with no back gardens) and a style that isn’t to everyone’s taste. The only other 3 bed close by in is Killeen which is still asking €450K (dropped from €465K).


#1036

Here’s a surprising fall in an estate near where I currently live

23 Kimmage Grove
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … 6w/2318747
Down 8% or 25k to 300k.

The last 2 houses that sold in this estate
#6 for 340k in July
#25 for 346k in March
propertypriceregister.ie/we … ge%20grove

Now, I would have thought these houses would stay around the 350k mark or even rise slightly as I expected them to appeal to FTB’s and even some trader-uppers (from apt’s perhaps) who were stung by the new CB rules.
But no, they are showing a fall of 12% or so from the March sale. And people on here expected it would be houses in the 400k to 600k mark that would really be impacted by the CB rules

Could this be a sign of the market as it stands and of things to come!


#1037

sherryfitz.ie/residential/for-sale/44973

propertypriceregisterireland.com … nd-166554/

Didn’t think this would go for an much as it did, only 3% under asking!


#1038

Going to be another interesting one to watch as a benchmark setter in Clontarf semi-D land.

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/3299320

€482/sq ft which is an 8.5% discount to what the neighboring 117 went for in May. Worth noting that 117 was in better spec and had been extended (hence the €790k sale price and 527/sq ft).


#1039

sherryfitz.ie/residential/for-sale/42875

propertypriceregister.ie/We … enDocument

Full asking. Nicely done kitchen but leaves a small back garden.

The bottom of the market

myhome.ie/priceregister/11-l … lin-213752

I think we viewed one in the grove in low 300’s late 2012/early 2013


#1040

Surprised this got full asking in the current climate unless was sales agreed, contracts signed a few months ago and just took a while to close.

Garden is small however big enough for a BBQ, sitting out etc and green out front for kids to play.


#1041

I wonder how long it takes for macro factors like the current Chinese malaise to manifest in sellers expectations in Ireland. A year probably


#1042

On further examination, someone made a nice profit.

collapso.net/Property-Price- … p?id=50682

V.true on garden, think it’s more the bushes/shading that’s tainting my view but they could possibly be removed.