Asking Prices - Worrying developments


#1123

Your figures imply that this isn’t a FTB’er. They don’t have any capital in their current property?


#1124

It is difficult to see any strong effect of the new rules in the mortgage approvals or drawdown stats, either in volumes or loan values.

The average (national) loan values for FTBs and movers have been oscillating in a fairly small range of 150-170k (FTB) and 200-220k (movers) since late 2011.

In short: people aren’t borrowing more money than they were in 2011 (but maybe 30% lower than in peak of 2007/08).

I assume that what’s driven prices in Dublin is a combination of more cash/equity (particularly in mover purchases) and competition driving people to spend the same amount on worse properties.


#1125

Interesting that you quote the technology sector - I watch this pretty closely and have been surprised that wages have stayed low in such an era of staff shortage. This seems to be changing now. I am now seeing contracts from agencies coming through that are quoting 550-650 per day for experienced staff. While work has always been available at these kind of rates it has not been coming through agencies - I don’t think I’d seen an agency quote anything over 500 until this month. The main requirements seem to be developers with 10+ years experience, product development management , product delivery, experience of multi platform mobile delivery. Some of these people will be in your 27-38 cohort.

There is another reason why this is interesting - I think the IT sector has a huge ‘underclass’ which churns - it is largely driven by asian and eastern european developers who use the visas given them by the MNCs to get a foothold in the industry. Many of them stay in Ireland but a lot move on (particularly to the US and the UK). Few of these who stay move into the management layer (a lot of them don’t want to, but most of them don’t have the skills because they haven’t received any training in the companies who have employed them here and I also think there is a bias against putting non-Irish people in management - mainly because companies think that non-Irish staff won’t stay, but I think there is some racism and racist stereotyping as well ) meaning that there is an even bigger staffing gap at the management level.


#1126

And in terms of accountancy - there is a definite shortage of qualified accountants with 5+ years PQE. I’m sick of the linkedin requests from recruiters and phone calls from firms I gave my cv to 7/8 yrs ago.

My salary is up 20%, via two increases, in 10 months. The second one a voluntary offer (not requested).

What are your peer group so negative about exactly?


#1127

probably explains…

So you’re in a professional well trained, becoming increasingly experienced and as you rightly point out in a growing corporate economy… taking home an additional €6-7k net a year… and your using that to justify why your typical 1,250-1,500 sq ft, 3-bed semi-D in a half decent area has gone from €300k to €500k over the last two years.

Really…


#1128

I made no such justification - where exactly did I say that? You are adding 2 and 2 and getting 5.

It’s you that’s making the assertions - I’m questioning them and you’re not happy about that.

You’re saying taxes are going up - they are going down.

You’re saying your peer group, in a field I know (the majority of my friends are also in this area both here (mainly) & London & Sydney), are skint yet wages are increasing rapidly in this area (see CAI survey again as already discussed). If they are skint - why? What are they so negative about? There is jobs galore and plenty of money to be made. The Big 4 are all looking for loads of extra professionals at good salaries.

I didn’t say prices went from anything to anything because of any of that- lets be clear about that - or that they won’t fall because of slightly lower taxes or sligthly higher wages.

Quite simply you’re trying to put words in my mouth or infer yet it’s you chucking out statements like;

‘The key drivers I’d be pointing to is that the vast majority of the country are still skint, can’t afford decent holidays, new cars etc. taxes are going up, and certainly don’t have the income or deposits to support current property prices’.

Evidence of these things? Are the vast majority of the country represented by your peer group? (you’re now admitting it’s purely anecdotal) Is the vast majority of the country represented by 1,250-1,500 sq ft, 3-bed semi-D in a half decent area that have gone from €300k to €500k over the last two years? (Your words not mine - I’d no idea that’s what we were apparently discussing).

I’ll say it again chucking out non-sensical statements like the one I originally queries adds nothing worthwhile to the discussion.


#1129

bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 … -FINAL.pdf

Mortgage Approvals (Volume) up 11.5% YOY.
July was highest value since series began in Jan-11, slightly beating Dec-14.

Criteria: Firm approval on specific property.
The data does not point to any slowdown in buyer demand from mortgage financed buyers.


#1130

https://s21.postimg.org/6q7s7dc8n/Screen_Shot_2015_08_28_at_15_11_41.png


#1131

What does it cost to build a house to a good standard in Ireland at the moment? A one off will probably cost you at least 200k. A scheme will be cheaper. Obviously that’s without any site cost. It’s a pity the Irish housing stock in poor, but that’s the reality, and it won’t get better unless people start building more and better houses.


#1132

That 200K will be for a house that will be a lot nicer than any 300K shitbox in need of ‘modernization’ on the Crumlin road. The actual build cost of a shitty 1960 style semi-d is a lot lower. Since when should builders get paid more than java developers or architects? There is some shite getting talked Ireland, that’s for sure!


#1133

€405k
propertypriceregister.ie/We … enDocument

Bet they are glad they didn’t sell it initially
collapso.net/Sale-Property/p … ?id=733268

It’s definitely not the size listed


#1134

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … in/3327449


#1135

Dropped 50k to 525k.
I think if it went up at that price originally, I would still have posted it for the ridiculous asking price.


#1136

Truly, truly special.


#1137

How right you were. Reduced to 675k
myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/2896467


#1138

Thank you. I’ll take that.

So here’s a new one for you…

Average 1,400 - 1,500sq ft 3-bed semi in Clontarf. Appreciate there’s a few nuances between the properties (extra rooms, gardens, windows etc.) , but I’m sure you’ll agree we’re working off the same base structure. There will definitely be a price gap between them but they all need a good bit of work:

1.) 68 Kincora Avenue. First listed May 2015 (I believe but correct me if wrong). EUR 750k. 1,500 sq ft.

So EUR500 per sq ft.

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/3175564

  1. 119 Kincora Avenue. Listed in the summer post 1) (cant get an exact date). EUR 675k. 1400 sq ft.

So EUR 482 sq ft.

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/3299320

  1. And then added this week. A new entrant at EUR 560k, around the corner at 63 Kincora Drive we have number 63. 1,507 sq ft.

So EUR 371 per sq ft.

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/3333104

I suspect we may see some downward movement on properties 1 and 2.

Edit - a bit of extra food for thought.

69 Kincora Drive was sold in Sept 2013 for EUR 560k. Let’s see where the property clears but that’s almost a full reversal of the 2014 “gains” if it does go for asking.

myhome.ie/priceregister/69-k … arf-207022


#1139

What’s going on here?

propertypriceregister.ie/We … enDocument

collapso.net/Sale-Property/p … id=1104694

daft.ie/sales/194a-seapark-m … n/1104694/


#1140

You think that’s bad?

irishexaminer.com/property/t … 63554.html

propertypriceregister.ie/We … enDocument


#1141

@ bart check the dates again

They bought it for €905k at end of August and put it on market the next week for €75k less? No long garden to chop off or the like. confused


#1142

A few more coming on in the in the vicinity this week:

25 Kincora Grove: 4 bed semi not dissimilar to the above. No size but you’d guess around 1,450-1,500 sq ft. EUR650k.

so around the EUR 450 per sq ft.

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/3340839

124 Kincora Grove: Double fronted semi that’s 1,400 sq ft. EUR 695k.

so EUR 496 sq ft

myhome.ie/residential/brochu … -3/3332914

Lets see how the stock moves. But 5 houses in stones throw is significant.