August Exchequer Balance

thoughts?

Slightly above or slightly below, with overall still below. The big damage to come in October/November.

august 18,733,241 deficit up 2.3b

Well the self-employment tax returns are on Oct 31st.
I expect a collapse in these figures.
Could easily be down 30%+.

From the self employed that I know, Me included, I would say that 30% is oprimistic.

More like 50 - 60%

lazy gits, post a link!!!
finance.gov.ie/documents/exc … daug09.pdf

I note that government spending has now gone below that of August 2008. The cutbacks begining to kick in? But the erosion of the tax base is continuing apace.

wasnt that the case re spending in july as well

These figures are pretty good (for the country) if you’re pinster (many here predicted a deficit of €30 billion), but not so good if you’re Alan Ahearne (predicted an €18 billion deficit). What’s clear is that we won’t be hitting anywhere near a €30 billion deficit, even with the self-employed tax receipts to come. If anything, I’d say the figures will come closer to Ahearne’s guesstimate and will be in the low 20’s.

unless we get a large outbreak of swine flu in the winter months…

partly as a result of a growth in the black economy too - based on lots of anecdotal evidence re cash jobs

Really doesnt matter what causes it does it.

Anywho, black economy cash jobs were very plentifull during boom( Anecdotal) :nin

No I suppose it doesn’t.

Still
Tax of over 50% + Income falling = temptation to under declare and blame it on the downturn

I had expected worse, particularly from VAT

Overall the shortfall versus plan was 2% which is an improvement on the cumulative July shortfall of 3%

For some reason corporation tax is way ahead of plan :confused:

One thing that I often wonder is that if they are down x% from last year, how far off the government estimates for this year they are?

Self assessment returns will be hit in three ways:

  1. the likes of yourselves whose business may be down so income is also down;
  2. the cessation of tradesmen and other self employed construction/property based persons who might not have yet been factored into the unemployment figures; and
  3. less than honest people who, disliking the government and extra taxes and fearing for what the future may bring, underdeclaring.

So if the honest self assessment people’s income would be down 50-60% (which I would be skeptical of but it’s not impossible) then the full returns could be down even more as there are less self employed people and there is a greater incentive for black marketry.

It will be about 28 billion at year end (adding in the 4billion from Anglo as not to confuse Dr.Fitz). Which is closer to 30 then 20 billion.