From the examiner
examiner.ie/irishexaminer/pa … qqqx=1.asp
From the examiner
Probably because the figures make a mockery of the ESRI/PTSB survey.
Report is here:
The average price of a second hand house in Dublin fell €75,581 between Q3 06 and Q2 07
Thats nearly a 14% fall in 3 quarters! (about 18% for a year)
you want the “House price % change year on year” tab, row 21 on the first page.
This is amazing. Did anyone else pick up THIS.
THere appears to be a clear seasonal factor. Every second quarter there is a large jump in prices (say around 10% on average).
But in Q2 2007, prices **fall **8%. Statisticians would say that “seasonally adjusted” prices fell by 18% (-8%-10%) in the second quarter alone!!
Am I misreading something here?
I am looking at Dublin only here.
It does seem that’s there’s a ‘selling seaon’ factor - both Q2 and Q4 are usually the strongest ones in dublin (though 2006 Q3 was exceptionally strong also).
Basically, the spring selling season in dublin didn’t happen this year.
I’m quite sceptical of the DoEHLG house price indices and how they are reflective to true house prices being achieved, but a drop of house prices in Dublin below the €500K range will have a psychological impact in bringing home the message that the housing market is on a distinctly downward trajectory and Dublin was in no way immune to this trend.
My word that is some drop!
Weren’t the vested interests saying something like they expected to see 5% yoy growth which would constitute a soft landing. This is some ways south of that! It could start being tagged a crash before long in the media?
Does any think this will get much coverage on the 6 o’clock news.
14% is an absolutely massive drop in 9 months. I’m a perma-bear but even I didn’t think prices would drop by that much this quickly!
I’m kinda surprised as well, I was thinking high single digit drops for this year. Q3 figures looks like they are going to horrific when they come out…
They mentioned all that stats released except the drop in house prices!
Does that take into account inflation, if not its even worse!!
No these are all nominal prices