This thread explores the relationship between migration & homelessness in Ireland, via a Twitter conversation on that topic between myself, @FocusIreland, and @RoryHearne.
My conclusion is that some form of generational conflict seems likely.
#IrelandisFull
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This data is from @FocusIreland’s website.
As you can see, homelessness had been rising steadily for several years until the turn of 2020, when the trend began to reverse. The down trend continued for about 18 months until the summer of 2021, when homelessness took off again.
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The period from early 2020 to mid 2021 happens to coincide with the worst of the Covid restrictions.
In early 2020, the world began limiting its movement. By mid 2021, the developed world had vaxxed its most vulnerable, lockdowns were ending & air travel was resuming.
3/ 
The first steady decline in Irish homelessness in years began around the same time that international air travel was heavily restricted. Irish homelessness started increasing again around the time that air travel returned.
A coincidence?
I thought not.
#IrelandisFull
4/ 
If immigration was driving homelessness, then we would expect lower air travel to coincide with lower homelessness, and vice versa.
Which is what happened.
The ‘natural experiment’ of Covid restrictions was pointing us to a particular conclusion.
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You Make Me Feel Like a Natural Experiment - FreakonomicsYou Make Me Feel Like a Natural Experiment - Freakonomicshttps://freakonomics.com/podcast/you-make-me-feel-like-a-natural-experiment/
While this data is compelling, it is not PROOF that migration alone is driving homelessness 
It strongly suggests that migration is a factor, but it is not proof that migration is the only factor (see image). Further investigation is both needed & justified.
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I tweeted the data to @RoryHearne. If anyone understood the relationship between migration and housing, it would surely be Ireland’s leading housing expert. Right?
Rory didn’t reply (as usual
) but @FocusIreland did…
7/ 
@mentionssent a link to a blog they had written on homelessness among foreigners.
The tweet also claimed that “The reason for the fall in homelessness was a ban on evictions during that period”.
I had doubts about both the blog and the claim…
8/
1 My point was that immigration seemed to be driving homelessness in Ireland. Whereas @FocusIreland’s blog only showed that there were foreigners who were homeless too.
OK. But that doesn’t address my point – much less disprove it.
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Understanding housing inequalities: The disproportionate risk of homelessness facing migrants living in Ireland - Donate - Focus Ireland https://www.focusireland.ie/focus-blog/understanding-housing-inequalities-the-disproportionate-risk-of-homelessness-facing-migrants-living-in-ireland/
2 @FocusIreland claimed that the fall in homelessness during the lockdowns was due to the eviction ban, and nothing else, but they didn’t provide any evidence for this claim.
The blog contained no analysis of migration, so how do they know that migration wasn’t a factor?
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Moreover, the blog argues that the eviction ban reduced homelessness because it stopped landlords from selling their properties.
But that’s not fair, not sustainable, and not a long-term solution to the problem. That’s #kickingthecan & it’s likely to create its own problems.
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Meanwhile, the data that we DID have on migration was telling a more compelling story.
The trend of increasing foreign migration to Ireland was broken during the pandemic (when air travel was restricted) before rebound sharply afterwards - just as homelessness did.
12/

Since 2017, over 700,000 foreigners have entered the country.
Are we really to believe that this massive increase in the demand for housing, has had no effect on the demand for housing?
Or the availability of housing?
Or the price of housing in Ireland?
Really?! 
13/

But the PPS data only tells us about people coming in to the country. It doesn’t take account for people leaving, so it overstates the demand for housing.
OK, but the net migration figures tell the same story.
Net 180k arrivals since 2017. What’s that, about 60k homes?
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The data tells us that:
1 net migration from abroad is increasing the demand for housing in Ireland
2 homelessness fell when immigration fell
3 homelessness increased when immigration increased
Isn’t it time we looked at housing demand, and the effects of immigration? 
15/
I responded to @FocusIreland with a thread summarising my position again & asking if they had any data to support their assertion that the eviction ban reduced homelessness, but that the reduction in air travel & immigration did not.
16/
Mike from @FocusIreland responded.
Unfortunately, his data was 6 years out of date, didn’t address my point, and was interpreted incorrectly.
Net migration has been positive since 2015 which, if anything, supports my point that immigration is driving homelessness.
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Mike also seemed to misunderstand my argument (or how migration works).
It is possible to reduce immigration without affecting emigration, or without closing your borders entirely. I’m in favour of regulating migration, not turning Ireland into an autarky.
#IrelandisFull
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And that is where the conversation ended!
As things stand, @FocusIreland & @RoryHearne continue to maintain that the fall in homelessness during the lockdowns was due to the eviction ban alone, and not lower migration. Yet no evidence proving either claim has been presented.
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Since then @RoryHearne – who you would expect to have researched and answered this question already – decided that he was done with the matter. This behaviour does not engender confidence. TBH, I find the whole conversation a bit unsettling…
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These people appear regularly in the news media. They are given massive platforms to say whatever they want, yet the conclusions they reach seem to reflect their personal political ideologies (eviction bans = good; regulating migration = bad), and not the available data.
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How is it that people who are so influential on a matter of such importance, are allowed to broadcast their opinions without presenting any evidence? Why are they dismissing other ideas out of hand? Why are they ignoring crucial data?
Can we even trust them? 
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So where does that leave us?
1 With massive inflows into the country creating unlimited demand for housing
2 With an expert class who it seems - once again - we cannot trust
3 With a housing crisis that will only lessen if another generation of Irish emigrates
#IrelandisFull
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4 With an Irish establishment (all home-owners) who refuse to recognise the possibility that unregulated migration is creating unlimited demand for housing, and that this is ruinous for our economy, our communities, our public services, and the health & stability of society.
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In short, the Gen Xers and the Boomers opened the floodgates, and the Millennials and the Zoomers got flooded. And since the Gen Xers and the Boomers control the media, we can’t even talk about the problem.
This is a recipe for generational conflict.
#IrelandisFull
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