Banks?? how solid?

The only ingredient missing from the property bust is a financial institution going under. Anglo Irish Bank have lost money to bothe Lynn and Byrne, were big investors in International Securities Trading Corporation, and of all the banks are the ,developers bank’. There share price has dropped to such a degree that rumours of a run on the bank surfaced last week

Up 4% today.

I beleieve Anglo have stated today they weren’t investors in ISTC, which I suppose isn’t to say some of their big names didn’t have a few bob in it. Ouch!

After last weeks drops, Anglo was selling for about 10 times earnings, AIB and BOI for about 6 or 7 times earnings. The market seems to have it’s own ideas about the relative strength of the various banks.

A short term drop in the share price should have very little impact on the financial stability of a bank. A drop in the share price might raise rumours of a takeover, but I don’t see why it would prompt a run.

I’m curious what Irish banks should be worth. It seems to me they’ve got to be getting close to reasonable value. Still even at current values the Dividend Yield is down below 4%, which doesn’t seem very high, considering that nobody (including the banks) really knows who owns the dodgy debt.


Anglo is off about 1/3 it’s value in the last few months, that’s very fast movement for a bank. Todays rise is due to the statement on istc.

All I’m saying is that a run on the bank could come to pass…depositors did withdraw cash last week in large amounts. The Northern Rock run has had a significant effect on the house price situation in the UK.

Aren’t AIB and BOI down the same or more? BOI has gone from about almost €19 to about €10 since March. AIB from €24 to €14 in the same period.


Yes indeed, Just that Anglo is smaller and very tied into the developer class. Also they failed to sell thier Swiss operation last month. They have financed projects in Portugal and that market has stagnated recently as well.

Wouldn’t PTSB be a more risky proposition, since are greater percentage of their mortages are of the Northern Rock calibre?

It depends on where you think the biggest risk comes from. Failing property owners, failing developers, or a global credit crunch cutting off the tap to a bank that relies on it.

Depending on which flavour you choose some or all of the Irish banks could face problems or not as the case may be.

I could be made to eat these words but I don’t think AIB, BOI or Anglo will face any genuine financial problems in the near future. Whether some idiot with a camera and a microphone can get enough passers by to stand in front of a branch in order to do a story about a Run is another issue. If such a story ever gets made it WILL become self fulfilling.


Details of the last major bailout

Indeed they are, I know a guy who had a property bought in Cork city in a deal financed by Anglo, when he heard how much he was being offered and the other properties were being bought for he sold all his shares in Anglo. Reckon he got that call right in the end, it was almost two years ago at this stage.

Of course our pal 2Gaffs would have called him stupid for having sold in 01/06 when the share price continued to grow until 06/07, but in the end he was right. This simple concept is something that some perma-bulls never get.

By several accounts this years annual Anglo Irish christmas parties will be interesting. In the past it has been a real get together of the Developer class. They hold one in Galway and from what I’m hearing it will be different this year as quite a few of the favoured one’s are under a bit of pressure. Discussions should centre around who has been put on interest only for the purpose of riding out the downturn.

Irish Banks have been hammered (again) this morning. BOI results were good but guidence has declined. CEO pointed to ongoing credit crunch. Central Bank made happy noises, but the big investors know how to red betweent he lines.

Anglo Irish down 4.7%. … z=m&q=l&c=

The market says it all.

Irish banking system robust - Hurley

Hurley says a soft landing is in sight, but just be wary of…

…and …

…oh, and what about…

… did I forget t mention…

… but hark! is that an investor-led recovery we see…

…nope, didn’t think so…

But not to worry, the bank are only “concerned”…

Oh well that’s alright then.

“Concern” is John Hurley’s get out of jail free card, he simply threw his hands up in the air and said feck it, if people want to make mistakes so be it. Any inquiries in the future after the Irish banking system collapses will show he issued lots or warnings (expressed his concern), but actually did nothing to stop the train wreck. He could have, but that would require making ‘courageous’ decisions.

The central bank is the original bottle of watered down piss pretending to be a regulator :frowning: Completely useless and asleep at the wheel.

Its the Empties Hurley ya Stoopid !

Just how effective is the Central Bank at regulating the banks??
Well as late as November 2006 there was talk about setting money aside…

**Green Bear wrote:

Been busy doing just that all week :wink:
Even have some of it under the pillow at this stage :wink:

What are you suggesting people do to insulate themselves?

Me personally, I’m using layers of IIB stock certificates & the box my 50" LCD TV came in…

Sorry couldn’t resist :smiley:

I’m not going to tell people how they should invest their money, and the course I have personally taken may not be the correct one for everyone and involves other risks, also as I have said previously my expertise is not in investments.
What I do say is do your own research and inform yourselves about what exactly are the risks of keeping your entire life savings in one bank, be that from loss of value due to inflation or the possibility that a bank can collapse and leave you with only €20,000 and a higher tax burden to show for it.

Learn from the Argentine experience. The poor people and middle classes got robbed and it happened suddenly, just like the crisis will here when it happens.

The ‘smart money’ is speaking loud and clear and dumping Irish bank stocks, they know there are better opportunities elsewhere. Sure everything looks OK now, they said the same thing about the ‘soft landing’ for the Irish housing market even as recently as a month ago, and we’re seeing in the last two months that pretense has mostly been dropped.