BANK'S STRESS TESTS & OTHER FUNDAMENTALS

So it appears that Hysteria is taking hold in some quarters ,
I know from reading these posts that some of us are worried that we are
about to spiral upwards regarding house prices and once again be “priced out of it”.

Supply and demand are certainly against us at this very moment but we still have
the Stress tests of all European banks early next year so we will see how long the Illusion floats.
The repossessions have yet to happen and that will certainly ease off the supply demand pressure
to some extent.
In the Grapes of Wrath they burned the crops to keep the prices up while thousands of families starved , Is this what is happening now
with the stocks being sat on ? Buy to lets empty, owners in Australia, some of them Feckless and some in a bad position and little repayments made.

America (USA) is in Serious trouble , they can’t keep printing forever .What will happen when Bernanke says “TAPER”?
All of the fundamentals are wrong and the media is jumping on the bandwagon because we have a spike of a few percent .
I’m not convinced ,
Are YOU?

Yes I’m afraid so
I can’t see repossessions coming in to any great extent that it will ease supply and if they do it will be apartments and BTL’s which people are not looking to buy anyway
There are two different markets at the moment, family homes in good areas and everything else. The family home market is flying at the moment and I can’t see anything that will change that anytime soon. The government is stupid enough to believe that the general population does not want repossessions and we are happy to pay our neighbours mortgages
I think prices are up even more than they suggest in some areas, SCD it is more like 30%. A EA was telling me yesterday in amazement that they sold a house for 550 recently and a house on the same road, pretty identical sold for 415 at the start of last year.

Quick, Hurry up buy now before the throw away bugbets over the next 3 years, the public sector pay rises and increased hiring, the clear trend for lower interest rates and increaed lending and the changing of the property tax to a tax on people who dont own.

Hurry 8DD Hurry

The current tactic of kicking the can down the road hoping that a) they(governments and banks) kick it long enough to retire and get a pension or b) some miracle happens, can’t last forever. At some point the hard decisions will have to be made.

At the moment the EU and Americans are happy to keep the status quo as long as no one rocks the boat too much. Unless Ireland receives stronger external pressure to tackle debt and start repossessing houses/release vacant NAMA stock, we’ll be in for more of the same for the next 12-18months.

The hysteria in SCD is generally explained by: some cash buyers, lack of good quality housing and lack of repossessions/action on major debtors. Instead of a nationwide bubble we now have a mini localised one with no sign of anyone trying to regulate it.

Ok and add everything qwerty said ,
or the inverse of it as I know it is tongue in cheek .

This subject has been kicked more times than the proverbial can, it is simply a matter of credit, if by some miracle Irish banks became profitable tomorrow and could get lots of easy credit and the regulator, in traditional fashion, left them roam loose then yes, a new property bubble would explode instantaneously as the sheeple flocked to get on the ladder. People are fucking stupid and that’s life.

However, mortgage lending is falling because banks have different priorities now, a zombie still needs to look good in the morning, lipstick and pigs come to mind. What with a horror show for a balance sheet and an Irish economic model that is failing gradually the banks haven’t a hope of getting access to credit at interest rates anywhere near where they are even now.

The Irish housing market has collapsed in the most dramatic way, volumes are 5-10% of those in 2007 and way below average volumes for the past 3 decades. The market does not exist because there is no credit, there is enough credit and cash floating about to maintain or even see increases in prices with such tiny volumes in sought after areas or housing types.

Repossessions will have to happen and in a public way to ensure that inter bank lending to Irish banks post bail out does not carry a ‘non-secured’ premium. Credit card lending rates are some 5 times those of mortgage rates because the loan is unsecured, currently any European bank thinking of lending to an Irish bank will know what’s happening here and that lending credit to Irish banks is more risky/corrupt than betting on a Liverpool game! :mrgreen:

The final question relates to the deficit which is still €12 billion a year, mostly made of interest payments but still adding to the national debt. In a zero growth failing economic model, the debt will not be inflated away, it will need to be cut out, in fact we will need to run surpluses to start paying down the debt and reduce interest payments. What will a cut of €12 billion do to a bankrupt, manipulated, defunct Irish economy and housing market?

And that’s if we stay in the Euro