Big rise in first buyers after stamp duty ends

Nonsense, the FF proposal affects about ten percent of first time buyers who themselves are around 30% of market in recent years, so 3-5% of buyers MAY get a boost , hardly enough to reignite a very bearish market.

They said here are about 1400 FTB’s a months looking at property, at best thats ~17000 houses a years, whos going to buy the other ~60000 houses that are being built this year?

As has been said already its nonsense as a lot of FTB’s are stamp duty exempt on new houses anyway.

We are fcuked either way because this will boost the second hand market at the expense of the new house market where the government make much more monaey.

Nonsense. Who is expecting the surge? Auctioneers? Should this kind of article appear under the heading “Commercial Advertising”.

I think it’s nonsense as well - there is a lot of pent-up demand but any “surge” will be caused by prices dropping, not ending the stamp-duty.

New houses and 2nd-hand houses will now be in competition with one another for FTBs.


My sister works for an estate agent and I was talking to her last night.
Where they were getting roughly 1 viewing a week on some properties over the last few months its now up to 7 or 8.


And thats the thing to watch out for.

For example:
The price of new unsold apartments are going to have to drop in price in order to compete with second-hand terrace houses in Dublin city centre.

Second hand apartment owners can only look forward to be RL’s , reluntant landlords, for the next 5yrs.

Viewings is one thing but getting people to close sales at high prices is another matter altogether.

If stamp duty reform leads to a boom in second hand house sales then the new house market will suffer.

pmwhelan>Did she say happen to say how many led to an actual sale though? I think you will indeed start to see a slow release of the pent-up demand but now 2nd hand properties will be just as attractive (and, considering the poor quality of new builds, perhaps even more attractive…) as new houses.

In effect, all 2nd hand houses currently for sale in the market have just been pooled with all the new houses currently for sale, not to mention the 60,000 also being built…

On another thread I did post a drop of 11 houses for sale…it’ll be interesting to keep tracking this for the next few months…

The article also says that vendors have been holding back pending stamp duty changes so more houses will start to come on the market cancelling the demand. There is no getting away from this elephant in the room though:

An investor with 250K can get ~5% return in the bank with instant liquidity and guaranteed capital or they can take a gamble on an overinflated house and pay al sorts of entry fees, solicitors fees, stamp duty, surveyors, life insurance, risky tenants etc etc.

Only a fool would invest in property now, a FTB looking for a home is a different story entirely.

If ~20000 houses a year are likely to be bought by FTB’s who is going to buy the other 50000 houses to prop the whole thing up??

Were these FTB class properties? Or were the viewers STBs looking around as they are expecting their current property to sell easier?

Sentiment is going to take a pretty hard hit when it emerges that stamp duty made no difference. There’s nowhere to hide after that.

Surely FTBs would be out looking now and putting down offers on houses which they would only complete if stamp changes come through. Do they expect that 9am the morning after stamp duty changes are announced (and we know with near certainty what they will be) FTBs will be out pounding the streets in great big herds waving wads of cash?

Heard a piece on Newstalk this morning, woman selling a house in Navan originally priced at €317500.There are 7 houses for sale in the same estate,none moving, so one chap drops his price to €305500 and guess what house sells. I thought that under €317000 was stamp duty exempt. Gilroy seemed to miss this point and had some gimp from Myhome telling us that everything was fine and since last year things rose by 15% that the world was really wonderful.
Wasn’t it Corporal Jones in Dads Army years ago who would go around shouting “Dont panic Dont Panic”

You forget how much pressure there is to buy.

Expecteant mothers will demand that they move into a house before the birth.

If the weather is good for the summer the nation will be told to wait for the autumn selling season. :laughing:

Houses only sell between 15°C and 19°C

100% FACT!

“Nesting” can be fun when it kicks in. I had 3 sprogs and was harried into painting 3 times ( starting about month 7 )

a note on nesting . … nancy.html

However if the father conveniently changes jobs between month 6 and month 9 the urge will assuredly pass :laughing:

No mention of that yet but I’ll ask her how the sales market is shaping up at the moment.


They’re first time buyers.
The EA seems to deal with the ‘lower’ end of the market.