BoI the one to monitor


#1121

18 months later BOI trades at €4.38

Down 34% year on year. Half year results, and the tracker fines from the CBI out in the next few weeks (after PTSB got smacked with €21m). So AIB, Ulster and BOI will probably get around €10-15m each

Not a good environment for a Bank, with ZIRP and no effective repossession/property rights. And the public gets what the public wants.


#1122

which gives it a market cap of
Market cap 4.98bn EUR

meanwhile N26 isn’t far behind

N26, the most prominent of a cluster of millennial-targeting European online banks, has raised another $170m from existing investors, putting a value of $3.5bn on a company that says it does not see profitability as a “core metric”.


#1123

BOI down at 3.42 today. Down over 20% in the last three weeks alone.

In ‘old money’ the shares are circa 11c (30:1 share split was done in 2017)

They traded at 15c in 2012.

From Feb 2012

Shares rose about 80pc from their 2011 open to the 15c high hit on Friday, February 3.

Crucially, the price rises occurred on steadily increasing volumes – in December, an average of 28 million shares a day were changing hands, in January, that average shot up to almost 40 million.

On the days with the biggest share price jumps, the volume has been highest – close to 250 million shares were traded last Friday when the shares hit that magic 15c. Increasing prices on increasing volumes suggests serious momentum.

That doesn’t mean it will continue, though. Already volumes have dropped back, and the price is back down in the mid-14c range.

Full-year results on February 20 will be carefully watched for signs of further loan book stress.

The eurozone crisis also looms large, and with it the spectre of a Greek default.

Even if that happened, you might still be right to believe that Bank of Ireland’s fundamental value is above 15c.


#1124

AIB has also tanked over the past fortnight. From 3.66 to 2.80 Euro. A quarter of its value lost since 25 July.

This is probably no deal Brexit, as with BoI, but domestic factors have prevented our two pillar banks from benefiting from their duopoly in Europe’s the best performing economy.

We own 70% of AIB so the failure to divest ourselves of these shares, despite the advice of the NTMA, has been a colossal error.

Probably cost us two National Children’s Hospitals at this stage but who cares? Has our public service broadcaster shone a light on this? Oh, look! That seagull stole my chips!