BoI the one to monitor


#1121

18 months later BOI trades at €4.38

Down 34% year on year. Half year results, and the tracker fines from the CBI out in the next few weeks (after PTSB got smacked with €21m). So AIB, Ulster and BOI will probably get around €10-15m each

Not a good environment for a Bank, with ZIRP and no effective repossession/property rights. And the public gets what the public wants.


#1122

which gives it a market cap of
Market cap 4.98bn EUR

meanwhile N26 isn’t far behind

N26, the most prominent of a cluster of millennial-targeting European online banks, has raised another $170m from existing investors, putting a value of $3.5bn on a company that says it does not see profitability as a “core metric”.


#1123

BOI down at 3.42 today. Down over 20% in the last three weeks alone.

In ‘old money’ the shares are circa 11c (30:1 share split was done in 2017)

They traded at 15c in 2012.

From Feb 2012

Shares rose about 80pc from their 2011 open to the 15c high hit on Friday, February 3.

Crucially, the price rises occurred on steadily increasing volumes – in December, an average of 28 million shares a day were changing hands, in January, that average shot up to almost 40 million.

On the days with the biggest share price jumps, the volume has been highest – close to 250 million shares were traded last Friday when the shares hit that magic 15c. Increasing prices on increasing volumes suggests serious momentum.

That doesn’t mean it will continue, though. Already volumes have dropped back, and the price is back down in the mid-14c range.

Full-year results on February 20 will be carefully watched for signs of further loan book stress.

The eurozone crisis also looms large, and with it the spectre of a Greek default.

Even if that happened, you might still be right to believe that Bank of Ireland’s fundamental value is above 15c.


#1124

AIB has also tanked over the past fortnight. From 3.66 to 2.80 Euro. A quarter of its value lost since 25 July.

This is probably no deal Brexit, as with BoI, but domestic factors have prevented our two pillar banks from benefiting from their duopoly in Europe’s the best performing economy.

We own 70% of AIB so the failure to divest ourselves of these shares, despite the advice of the NTMA, has been a colossal error.

Probably cost us two National Children’s Hospitals at this stage but who cares? Has our public service broadcaster shone a light on this? Oh, look! That seagull stole my chips!


#1125

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-17/bank-of-ireland-drops-most-in-ten-months-after-regulator-s-move?srnd=premium-europe


#1126

#1127

There’s a good chance that everyone who knows why things work the way they do in BoI is about to leave.


#1128

Very soon, there’ll be fewer than 20K. working in traditional banks in Ireland, and most of them will be low-paid. The days when a job in the bank was as safe as a civil service job, and better paid, are gone.

BoI shares have taken another hit in the past month. Most of their price drop this year happened before the lock-down and now it has happened before a second lock-down. Who knows what drives Irish bank share prices?


#1129

And a lot of those jobs will be regulatory reporting to the Central Bank, and mickey mouse make work jobs that didn’t exist 20 years ago. None of which add value. Oh well, they did it to themselves


#1130

Bank of Ireland received €4.7 billion from State during financial crisis

In total, the State put €4.7 billion into Bank of Ireland with the initial investment coming in early 2009 as the banking crisis took hold.

That year the then Minister for Finance told the National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) to inject €3.5 billion into preference shares issued by the bank.

The following year, the State then converted €1.7 billion of this investment into ordinary shares and, in 2011, invested another €200m in equity, again via the National Pension Reserve Fund.

A further €1 billion was invested in July 2011 through Contingent Capital Notes.

Since then Bank of Ireland has returned around €6 billion to the State. This makes it the only Irish bank to have repaid the Irish taxpayer for its support.

By May of last year the State had generated a net positive cash return of at least €1.2 billion from its investment in Bank of Ireland.

The State’s equity stake in Bank of Ireland has a current market value of about €670m based its market capitalisation of around €4.8 billion.

And for the next time someone tries to tell us the quarter of a trillion in debt was ‘to bail out the banks’ :whistle:

Ireland last recouped part of the money it ploughed into its lenders when it cut its holding in AIB to 71% from 99.9% with a 2017 IPO. It also owns 75% of Permanent TSB.

Of the €29.4 billion put into the banks still trading, €19.2 billion has been recovered by way of disposals, investment income and liability guarantee fees.

The remaining shareholdings are currently valued at €5.3 billion.


#1131

BOI recently updated their mobile app and online banking website, and both are a tragedy to behold. It’s easier to make a will than transfer money between my own accounts.

I liked the old banking website - it was obvious they had some input from old school UI patterns in that you nearly didn’t have to touch the mouse, now it’s every second action.

If you compare it to Revoult where I can login ten times faster with a fingerprint and I can buy shares or crypto and by the end of the year I can get a personal loan or a credit card…

BOI and AIB have lost the generations below age 30, a slow terminal decline is on the cards as their client base die out.


#1132

The timing of this is interesting. Could the Government be scrambling around in the cupboards ahead of the budget

The ‘party’ just can’t continue, some attempt must be made to at least try to be seen to balance the books.