From the piece:
I was speaking to a banker at one of the pillar banks at the weekend. He said that within all the banks it is known with absolute certainty that there are still significant double-digit falls to come in residential property. And “significant double-digit” doesn’t mean 11%.
Everywhere or just outside Dublin?
Sorry, we were talking about Dublin.
well, not much sign of it happening at present. We are in fact seeing strong double digit increases…and I don’t mean 11%!!!
Any big falls now/near future might only see us come back to late 2011 levels…thats how fecked up things have gone lately!!!
Shoe-shine moment through the looking glass?
Fu-k me, pinsters agreeing with LL.
Incidentally LL, and merely as a statement of fact, I can’t help but read your moniker as “FK ALL”.
And while we’re at it, his sig seems to have a typo or a grammatical error (can’t tell 'cos I’ve no idea what it’s supposed to mean).
I’m pretty sure he means "too many ", because people gave out to him for it quite regularly! I’ve seen a few people ask him to change his signature but he seems to enjoy leaving it as it is!
Never picked up on “too” many. English was never my stongest subject.
Aah! I thought you weren’t changing it on purpose. My suspicious mind
Funny thought that as well but then again he is a banker from one of our “pillar banks” so hes just** gotta** know the inside scoop on the property market
Did you discuss timescales over which the fall might happen?
I don’t want to turn this into: “Bears, you’ll get really cheap property in 18 months!” type thing.
We didn’t discuss timescales and he could as easily have been talking about what it means for his book as much as it will ever translate into real drops in the real world.
I appreciate that you dont want things hijacked. It was a very definitive statement that the banker made. I was struck by the words “across all the banks” and “absolute certainty” in your original post. My own view is that things will continue on a downward trajectory next year once withdrawal of MIR, property tax, and other budget measures measures kick in. Still seeing a lot of dross at relatively high prices.
Constantin Gurdgiev (@GTCost)
Posted Friday 16th November 2012 from Twitlonger
@OwenCallan However we speculate, here’s the quote from B of I - rephrased by the Irish Examiner - “Richie Boucher said the reserve created from the reduction is to be treated as profits available for distribution and is intended to ensure the bank has sufficient distributable reserves, after accounting for potential losses, to enable it make distributions and declare dividends to stockholders.” I don’t see any ‘preference shares’ action here. I see distributions and dividends.
Is this is AIB and Eugene Sheehy all over again.
(And will someone bring a halt to Richie Banker?
Shock and horror.
Dividends and distributions are only possible after obligations to preference shares are satisfied.
IMO there will be no BoI dividends until 2015 at the earliest.
More importantly how is the Irish government going to replace the €500m approx per year they are receiving from the banks in fees for bond guarantees.
Richie longing for a return to the days when he could do whatever he wants …
December 16, 2012 2:00 pm
Bank of Ireland irked over state guarantee
By Jamie Smyth in Dublin
Bank of Ireland has said it is “frustrated” by Dublin’s decision to extend its bank guarantee into 2013, a move that could cost the bank hundreds of millions of euros.
“Bank of Ireland is ready to come off the guarantee and we were prepared for coming off on December 31,” Richie Boucher, Bank of Ireland chief executive, told the FT.
“The delay in timing is frustrating for the bank and is something we are keeping a very close eye on and we are having dialogue with the authorities on,” he said.
Dublin introduced the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee scheme in December 2009 when Irish banks were shut out of international debt markets. Last Thursday the European Commission approved Dublin’s request for an extension until the end of June 2013.
The scheme provides a state guarantee for deposits over €100,000 in return for hefty fees paid by banks. Bank of Ireland, Ireland’s largest lender by assets, paid €449m in 2011 for the guarantee and is lobbying for its withdrawal.
Dublin has said it may lift the guarantee in early 2013 but is concerned this could make it more difficult for other state-owned banks to raise funds.
Mr Boucher said the guarantee was brought in on a “systemic basis” and the bank required permission from Dublin to come off the scheme.
“It is expensive and we don’t believe it adds a lot. It is depleting capital from the banks. We are very conscious of the government’s desire to be a regular issuer in the markets and having this contingent liability taken away from the state is very important,” he said.
Bank of Ireland is the only Irish bank to escape state control following the country’s banking crisis and is seeking to distinguish itself from its weaker rivals by raising unsecured funding and taking a tough stance on mortgage arrears.
Mr Boucher said a new insolvency bill due to passed by the Irish parliament this week to tackle fast-growing arrears would not prompt the bank to provide debt forgiveness to struggling customers
“It is not our money; it is shareholders and depositors money. For the other government-owned banks, it is taxpayers’ money – so it is a transfer of money from one group of taxpayers to another. Our first role is to responsibly maximise the amount of money we can recover,” he said.
Allied Irish Banks, the second-largest Irish bank by assets, has said it will write off the debts of distressed mortgage holders on a case-by-case basis.
Mr Boucher characterised his bank’s relationship with the government as “greater than 80-20 in alignment”, but he acknowledged there were “areas of frustration”.
He said the bank was making progress despite a tough interest rate environment in Europe. “I would characterise what we are doing as moving in the right direction, but it is trudging through thick mud. In the last three years we have had some very binary moments when you have to rally the organisation and you do or die,” he said.